Use the independent-mark interpretation: the Brownian motions attached to the atoms are independent of one another and of the initial Poisson random measure. Fix and define
Conditionally on the initial atoms, each atom is retained as a dangerous atom if its own path meets the target by time . These tests are independent, with position-dependent retention probability . The permitted Poisson thinning property makes the dangerous atoms a Poisson random measure of intensity .
Its total intensity is computed without invoking a marking or displacement theorem. The event in the definition of says that belongs to
By the Tonelli theorem,
Symmetry of Brownian motion gives as processes. It therefore identifies the last expectation with , where the sign of the deterministic path is unchanged. This swept set is a Wiener sausage with an added deterministic path.
The total intensity is finite on each bounded time interval. To see this explicitly, write and . The sausage is contained in a ball of radius . On a finite time grid, splitting according to the first crossing of a positive level by a one-dimensional Brownian motion shows that the chance of ending above , conditional on the crossing, is at least : the remaining independent increment is symmetric. Thus the grid maximum exceeds with probability at most twice the final Gaussian upper tail. Dense grids and continuity give the same bound for the path maximum. Applying this to each coordinate and its negative gives
The last inequality follows from and minimizing the exponential Markov bound. Integration of this tail gives finite moments of of every positive order, so .
There are consequently only finitely many dangerous atoms on each compact time interval, almost surely. For closed balls, continuity of the paths makes each finite hitting-time infimum attained. The event is therefore the absence of dangerous atoms up to time .
The open-ball convention has the same survival probability at each fixed . Indeed for any compact path range , the difference between its closed and open radius-one neighborhoods is the shell , which has zero Lebesgue measure. To see this, choose a nearest for a shell point . For every sufficiently small , the ball of radius centered at lies in the open neighborhood and inside the ball of radius about . Thus the shell has a fixed proportional hole at every scale; the Lebesgue density theorem forces its measure to be zero. By the Tonelli theorem, closed-touch and open-entry retention probabilities have equal integrals. Independent thinning therefore gives no atom that touches only the boundary before this fixed horizon, almost surely. This also excludes a difference at an open-entry infimum equal to .
The zero-count probability of a Poisson distribution is , and hence
This survival among independently moving Poisson traps formula has been derived using only independent thinning and the defining Poisson zero-count probability, with the expectation/volume step supplied by Tonelli's theorem.
For an aggregate claims model, let denote one claim size, with expected value and variance . The total is zero when the claim count is zero. Given , independence gives
The law of total expectation and law of total variance, together with for a Poisson distribution, imply
The raw second moment appears because the random count itself contributes to the variance.
Conditional on , the moment-generating function of the sum is . Averaging with the Poisson distribution therefore gives the compound Poisson distribution transform
This is valid wherever is finite. Finite first and second moments alone do not ensure positive exponential moments; for positive claims the corresponding Laplace transform always exists.
For the independent portfolios put and . Their Poisson distribution counts add to a Poisson distribution with parameter . By Poisson-multinomial conditioning, conditional on the total count the first risk count has a binomial distribution with parameters , and the second is the remaining count. Thus one can generate the same total loss by drawing independent risk labels with these weights, then drawing each claim from its label's law. The merged severity has mixture distribution
It follows that has a compound Poisson distribution with count parameter and this severity law. This is the fixed-year version of Poisson superposition of insurance portfolios. Its expected value and variance are
Alternatively, multiplying the two independent aggregate Laplace transforms yields wherever finite, confirming the same compound Poisson distribution.
For the retained compound Poisson aggregate under per-claim reinsurance, replace each claim by its retained payment . Assume the retention is measurable, with as usual. The count parameter remains , and the severity law is the pushforward measure of the mixture severity under . Thus the retained compound Poisson aggregate has a compound Poisson distribution with that transformed severity and
Its moment-generating function is on its finite domain. For a general retention , zero retained payments can occur and are allowed as compound-Poisson marks; they may equivalently be removed by Poisson thinning. The two specified contracts retain strictly positive payments for strictly positive claims.
Assume individual incubation delays are independent of the Inhomogeneous Poisson process of infections and of one another. This marking assumption is needed in addition to specifying a marginal incubation density.
In the discrete cohort model let be the independent infection counts. Mark each infection by its eventual onset interval. For cohort , the categories have probabilities for observed intervals, with the remaining probability assigned to onsets outside the window. Poisson thinning makes the counts in these categories mutually independent Poisson random variables with means . One direct proof is their probability generating function:
Different cohorts are independent. Summing their counts therefore gives independent Poisson onset counts in disjoint intervals:
The same argument applies exactly in continuous time by the Independent marking theorem for Poisson point processes and mapping each marked infection to its onset time. The endpoint model approximates its means; its independent-Poisson conclusion is exact within that discrete model. A fixed cohort size would instead induce negatively correlated onset-bin counts, so the Poisson process infection assumption matters.
An Inhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity is a counting process with , independent increments, and
The continuity and positivity of make strictly increasing.
For and ,
has a Poisson distribution with mean
Disjoint increments remain independent, so is a homogeneous rate-one Poisson process. Taking gives , and hence
This is the time change of an inhomogeneous Poisson process.
For the bicycle model, let an arrival occur at time and have velocity . At time its position is , so it lies in the first miles exactly when
Conditional on its arrival time, independently marking the bicycle by whether this event occurs is Poisson thinning. Therefore the desired count is Poisson with mean
Thus
By Poisson thinning, allocating a Poisson population independently and uniformly among days gives independent Poisson counts. Hence
Let be the number of telephone lines in use. The memorylessness of the exponential distribution makes a continuous-time Markov chain, specifically the M-M-infinity queue with generator rates
Suppose and put . Each initial call is still active at time with the exponential survival probability , independently of the others. Their surviving number is therefore
A call arriving at time survives until with probability . By Poisson thinning, the number of surviving new calls is independent of and has law
Hence in distribution. Multiplying the probability generating functions of the two independent random variables gives, for ,
Equivalently, the transient distribution of an M-M-infinity queue is
with independent summands. As , the binomial term converges to zero and the Poisson mean tends to . Therefore
which proves the stated large-time approximation.
A particle arriving at time survives until with probability . Independently retaining each Poisson arrival with this time-dependent probability is Poisson thinning. Hence the number alive at time is Poisson with mean
Thus
An arrival at remains active with probability when , and zero later. By Poisson thinning, the detector count is Poisson with mean
Mark each member of an independent Poisson infection cohort by its symptom-onset interval, using independent delays. Poisson thinning gives independent onset-bin counts, and sums over independent cohorts remain independent Poisson counts. Fixed cohort totals instead induce multinomial dependence. The marking assumptions are essential.
Applying a measurable per-claim retention to independent claim sizes preserves the compound Poisson distribution form. The transformed severity is the pushforward measure of the original severity law. With count parameter , the retained aggregate has expected value and variance . Zero retained marks may be removed by Poisson thinning.
Transient distribution of an M-M-infinity queue Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
If and , then
with independent summands. The binomial term counts surviving initial customers; Poisson thinning gives the surviving later arrivals.