Put . The random walk has independent and identically distributed increments equal to with probability and with probability . Thus , , and .
The history is contained in . The increment is independent of this history by the given independence of random variables. Therefore
This depends only on the current state and not on time. It is precisely the time-homogeneous Markov property, so is a Markov chain with transition probabilities
The conditional identity is an identity that holds almost surely; histories of zero probability require no division by their probabilities.
A return path with upward steps and downward steps satisfies . Since are coprime, this is equivalent to and for an integer . Its length is therefore .
Conversely, for each such , any ordering of upward and downward steps is an allowed positive-probability return path. The possible strictly positive return times are exactly the positive multiples of . By the definition of the period of a state in a Markov chain as their greatest common divisor,
In particular, none of the states is aperiodic.
Fix any two integers . By Bézout's identity, there are integers with . Replacing by leaves this identity unchanged. Choose large enough that both entries are nonnegative. A path with upward steps and downward steps then takes to , with strictly positive probability . There are no boundary restrictions on this state space.
This applies in both directions, so every pair of states communicates. Hence
First identify the recurrence type, rather than infer an occupation limit from a one-time probability. At time , return to zero requires exactly upward steps. The binomial distribution gives
where the last step is Stirling's approximation. At all other positive times the return probability is zero. Hence . The recurrence criterion by return probabilities proves the recurrent property; by the irreducible Markov chain property established in (i), every state is recurrent. The equivalence of positive recurrence and existence of a stationary distribution for an irreducible Markov chain on a countable state space, together with (iii), makes this chain null recurrent.
For completeness, the zero occupation proportion follows directly by treating returns as a renewal process. Let be successive strictly positive return-cycle lengths to zero. The Strong Markov property makes them independent and identically distributed, the recurrent property makes them finite almost surely, and the null recurrent property gives . For each positive integer , the strong law of large numbers applied to gives
Take a common event of probability one for these countably many . By the monotone convergence theorem, the right side increases to infinity. Thus the number of completed return cycles by time , divided by , tends to zero. Counting the initial visit changes this ratio by at most . Consequently,
The walk visits zero infinitely often, but the asymptotic fraction of time spent there is zero.
Take an integer . On , the modified transition matrix agrees with . Above , it stays put with probability and jumps to each of with probability . Below , it stays put with probability and jumps to each of with probability . All unspecified entries are zero. These rows sum to one. The integer qualification is necessary: if were nonintegral, would fit none of the printed row conditions.
The restriction is a finite Markov chain that is an irreducible Markov chain. It is aperiodic, because its upper states have self-transition probability , and the period is constant on a communicating class. We now find its stationary distribution.
Every column of sums to one. Here is the full incoming-mass check, with each total measured in units of . For , the incoming contributions are from and from the self-transition. For , they are from and from the self-transition.
For , the upward predecessor lies in exactly when , contributing units. When , that predecessor is replaced by resets from all states of , again contributing units. Independently, the downward predecessor contributes units when ; when , resets from the states of contribute those units instead. Thus every column total is units.
Therefore is a doubly stochastic matrix, and the uniform distribution on is stationary:
The countable-state Markov chain convergence theorem, applied to the finite closed class , gives for every . Its hypotheses hold: is finite and irreducible, hence positive recurrent, and it is aperiodic.
If , the hitting time of has . If , the corresponding tail is . Thus almost surely from every exterior initial state. Conditioning on and , use convergence within after entrance and the bounded convergence theorem; equivalently, first restrict to and then let . This proves, for every ,
The limiting distribution is independent of .
Define
An interior jump cannot go below or above , and every exterior reset lands in . Thus is closed.
To prove that it is one communicating class, start anywhere in . From or , a reset can reach with positive probability. From any state of , repeated steps reach some state of , after staying in up to the last step. A reset from this state can reach every point of the consecutive block
Every integer has the form for some and an integer . Repeated steps from reach , with all departure states in until a possible last step into . This gives access to all of . Finally, each can be reached from . Every path described has strictly positive probability. Therefore every state in reaches every other state in .
Each state outside can only stay put or reset into , and no transition from returns to it. Different states outside cannot reach one another. Hence the complete list of communicating classes is
The finite class is the unique closed communicating class. The exterior singleton classes are transient communicating classes, since their self-transition probabilities are strictly less than one. Notice that this reachability proof does not require to be coprime.
Let and put , . Then are coprime integers, and . The six requested revisions are as follows.
(b)(i): communicating classes. Every increment is divisible by , so the residue class modulo is preserved. Conversely, if is divisible by , Bézout's identity applied to gives a path just as in (b)(i). Thus the original Markov chain is reducible on , with exactly the closed communicating classes
The specified walk starting at zero stays in .
(b)(ii): period of a state in a Markov chain. The return equation reduces to . Hence , . For every state, the period of a state in a Markov chain is therefore
This is still at least two, so no state is aperiodic.
(b)(iii): stationary distribution. The conclusion is unchanged: there is no stationary distribution on . The maximum-mass proof in (b)(iii) applies verbatim, without using coprimality. Equivalently, each closed communicating class, after translating and dividing its state labels by , is the same centered random walk with step sizes and has no stationary distribution.
(b)(iv): occupation of zero. On , the rescaled walk has exactly the transition probabilities of the coprime walk with parameters . The return-probability argument in (b)(iv) therefore makes this class null recurrent. The renewal process proof of the occupation limit applies unchanged:
Starting in another residue class would make every visit to zero impossible, also giving occupation proportion zero.
(c)(i): modified communicating classes. These are unchanged: is one finite closed communicating class, and all other states are transient singleton classes. The original proof used consecutive reset destinations and never used coprimality. Resetting to the consecutive integers connects different residue classes, so it would be incorrect to split according to residue classes modulo .
(c)(ii): limiting distribution. The column-sum calculation, the irreducible Markov chain property on a finite class, positive self-transition probabilities, and geometric entrance argument also required no coprimality. Thus for every initial state the same convergence in distribution holds:
In particular, the denominator is unchanged; it is not divided by .
The strong law of large numbers states that, for independent and identically distributed random variables with ,
Thus, outside an event of probability zero, the sample mean converges to the common expected value.
For a Borel set , the joint probability density gives
For each , substitute . The change of variables for probability densities contributes , with the absolute value accounting for the reversed orientation when . The line has two-dimensional Lebesgue measure zero, so omitting it changes no probability. By the Tonelli theorem,
The bracket is nonnegative and its integral over is one. This proves the probability density of a product of random variables formula:
As usual, a probability density function is determined only almost everywhere; exceptional infinite values are harmless.
For the independent random variables with the specified uniform distribution, on and zero elsewhere. When , the conditions and are equivalent to . Therefore
The value assigned at zero is arbitrary. Substitution checks normalization of a probability distribution: . This is the product of independent uniform random variables law.
If , then almost surely. Intersecting these events over all still gives an event of probability one. On it, , so the products have a finite nonnegative limit .
For every , the inclusion and part (c)(i) imply . Taking for positive integers proves almost surely. Thus
The monotonicity is the extra ingredient that upgrades convergence in probability to almost sure convergence here.
Every step changes the population by one, so has the parity of when . Hence . A return in two steps has positive probability from every state, and all return times are even, so the period of a state in a Markov chain is exactly two.
Each transition exchanges the even and odd classes. Since is an invariant distribution, their masses are equal: . The chain sampled at times , restricted to the even states, is irreducible and positive recurrent, and it is aperiodic because its diagonal entries are positive. Its stationary distribution is on even . The countable-state Markov chain convergence theorem applied to this sampled chain yields
Since , the full sequence has no limit. Its time average nevertheless tends to by the countable-state Markov chain ergodic theorem.
Write and . The two conditional expectation identities supply a -measurable version of and a -measurable version of . Work with those versions, which do not change any almost sure equality. Both lie in L2 space, and the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality makes their product an integrable random variable.
Testing the first conditional expectation identity against , and the second against , gives
For completeness, these tests with unbounded multipliers are valid by first using the bounded truncations and , then passing to the limit with the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality and convergence in L2. Consequently,
A nonnegative random variable with zero expected value vanishes almost surely. Therefore almost surely. This is mutual conditional expectation rigidity in L2; it also follows from the equality case for conditional second moments.
For a counterexample to equality of the original random variables, let give probability to each of , set , and use the nonconstant function . Then takes both values and . It is measurable with respect to both generated sigma-algebras, so both required conditional expectation identities hold. Symmetry gives , while neither random variable can be zero. Thus
Retain the binary random variables . Iterating the recursion gives
Each binary history determines the full vector , so its sigma-algebra is finite by the sigma-algebra of a finite-valued random vector. Conversely, because , the integer uniquely determines the digits ; also . Thus
All binary histories have positive probability. By independence of the driving uniform random variables, along a fixed finite history every intermediate state is in , so each subsequent conditional branch probability, either or , is strictly positive. It follows that has nonempty fibres, each an atom of a sigma-algebra, and exactly elements.
Adaptedness from the preceding part gives . For , however, contains the events for every . They have distinct probabilities , so there are infinitely many distinct such events. Consequently the finite sigma-algebra cannot equal . The inclusion is strict for every .
The tail sigma-algebra of this sequence is
For each fixed , the preceding event equality gives
Every event on the right is determined by coordinates with index at least . Therefore for every , and . The random variables are independent, so Kolmogorov's zero–one law applies: every tail event has probability zero or one. Hence .
The role of independence can also be seen directly. A tail event is independent of each finite initial sigma-algebra . The Monotone class theorem extends this independence to ; since itself lies there, it is independent of itself. Thus .[ref]
For , the definition of the common cumulative distribution function gives
The strict exceedance matters here: an atom of a measure at belongs to , so it is already included in . The events are mutually independent events, since each depends on a separate member of the independent random variables .
If , countable subadditivity gives, for every ,
Continuity of probability then gives . This is the First Borel-Cantelli lemma and does not need independence.
If the series diverges, independence and give, for every fixed ,
Taking shows that the probability of no exceedance after is zero. A countable union over shows that finitely many exceedances has probability zero. This is the Second Borel-Cantelli lemma. Together with the preceding event equality, it proves
The optional stopping theorem at a bounded stopping time states that an integrable martingale satisfies whenever for a fixed finite . Apply this first to at . The simple symmetric random walk cannot cross an integer endpoint without hitting it, so
The preceding part gives almost surely, hence almost surely. The constant bound permits the dominated convergence theorem, yielding . Since is either or , solving gives its full probability distribution:
Now let
This counts the visit at time , and excludes the exit time. Apply the same bounded-time optional stopping theorem to . For each it gives
The visit counts increase to , so monotone convergence applies to the left. Dominated convergence applies to the right using . Consequently is an integrable random variable and
This is the origin case of expected occupation before interval exit for a simple symmetric random walk. The argument obtains integrability of the total occupation count before using any unbounded-time optional stopping for , so it does not presuppose the uniform integrability asked about next. The endpoint probabilities also agree with the standard gambler's ruin calculation.[ref]
For each ,
since is adapted. This verifies directly that is a stopping time.
Set . On , the random walk is at some integer strictly between and . If its next steps are all , it must hit within that block. These future steps are independent of and have probability of being all . Hence
The law of total expectation and mathematical induction give the geometric tail bound from a uniform escape probability:
Therefore . In fact this also proves by grouping the tail-sum formula into blocks of length . No assertion of independence between successive survival events is needed.
For , fix signs . The constraints leave exactly two choices for the signs : choose freely, then set and for . Each input tuple has probability by independence. Consequently
Every finite subfamily is a marginal distribution of one such initial segment, so the entire sequence is independent, with fair sign probability distributions.
Using the usual everywhere sign-valued representatives, for every we have
The right side is measurable with respect to . Therefore is measurable with respect to their intersection .
Write . The Kolmogorov zero-one law applies to the independent random variables , so every event has probability zero or one. Also is independent of : this follows first for finite intersections of sign events from the given independence, then for their generated sigma-algebra by part (a).
The sets with and form a pi-system generating . If , the event has probability zero and is independent of every event in . If , it differs from by a null set, so the same independence follows from that of and . Another application of part (a) proves
In particular cannot contain the nontrivial event , whereas does. Thus adjoining a sigma-algebra need not commute with a decreasing intersection.
There is a small version qualification if the assumptions specify only the probability distributions, allowing exceptional values other than signs. Put when the denominator is nonzero, and otherwise. For , is measurable with respect to . The limit superior of , after scalar clipping to , is therefore -measurable and equals almost surely. Literal measurability of an arbitrary version of need not follow without choosing sign-valued representatives or adjoining the ambient null sets. All the independence conclusions are unaffected.