Past exam of the physics B course of the University of Cambridge 2019 Paper 2 Section C C13 Solution 2026-10-18
Temperature as an equilibrium relation. Classical thermodynamics begins with the zeroth law of thermodynamics: thermal equilibrium is transitive. A thermometer can therefore assign a common empirical temperature to systems in mutual thermal equilibrium. Different thermometer properties initially give different monotone empirical scales; a resistance reading by itself does not define the absolute scale.
The Second law of thermodynamics provides a substance-independent thermodynamic scale. A reversible engine operating between reservoirs has a heat ratio depending only on their temperatures. One chooses absolute temperature so that , with the positive heat magnitudes. Its reversible efficiency is . Equivalently, reversible heat defines entropy through . For an equilibrium simple compressible system,Classical thermodynamics uses this relation without needing a microscopic account of entropy. A dilute-gas thermometer realizes an empirical scale approaching the thermodynamic scale after corrections for nonideal behavior.
Statistical meaning of the same derivative. In the microcanonical description, an equilibrium energy shell containing accessible states has . Its statistical temperature is consequentlyTo see why this is an equilibrium temperature, let two weakly coupled systems exchange a small energy while their total energy stays fixed. The combined multiplicity is . Maximizing its logarithm giveswhich is equality of the two inverse temperatures. Stability requires the total entropy maximum, not only stationarity. The overwhelmingly dominant macrostate in a large system therefore realizes the thermodynamic equilibrium condition.
A large reservoir gives a small subsystem the canonical probabilities , with . In that ensemble, and agree with macroscopic thermodynamic relations in their usual equilibrium regime. The equipartition identity for a classical dilute monatomic gas, , is a useful operational connection between microscopic motion and temperature, but is not a universal definition: quantum modes need not obey equipartition, and a system away from equilibrium need not have one temperature at all.
For finite systems one must specify the entropy convention and energy resolution; surface and fluctuation corrections can distinguish definitions that agree in the ordinary thermodynamic limit. Bounded-energy population-inverted systems can also have a negative entropy derivative and hence a negative statistical temperature. That possibility lies outside an ordinary positive-temperature ideal-gas thermometer; it does not mean temperature is merely an arbitrary average kinetic energy.
Obtaining the energy–temperature conversion. The Boltzmann constant connects entropy measured in with the dimensionless logarithm of a state count. Historically it could be determined from the ideal gas law : measure the molar gas constant and independently determine the Avogadro constant , then obtain . The independent particle-number determination matters; using alone would not fix energy per particle.
An electrical method uses Johnson-Nyquist noise. A resistor of resistance at known temperature has, in the classical range , a one-sided open-circuit voltage-noise spectrum . Over a calibrated flat bandwidth ,A practical measurement uses an equilibrium resistor, a calibrated low-noise amplifier and a known transfer function, subtracts or independently characterizes amplifier noise, and replaces a nominal bandwidth by the actual effective noise bandwidth. Varying temperature and fitting the mean-square voltage is more informative than treating one amplified voltage sample as the thermal variance. Other primary methods relate temperature to sound speed in a dilute gas or to calibrated particle diffusion and mobility.
There is a historically relevant unit-definition qualification: by the date of this exam, the revised SI had already taken effect on 20 May 2019. The kelvin is now defined by fixingThe same experiments now realize or compare thermodynamic temperatures using this fixed constant, whereas historically they measured the conversion constant on an independently defined temperature scale. The physical distinction between equilibrium temperature and microscopic state counting is unchanged.[ref]
https://www.bipm.org/en/measurement-units/. BIPM, SI definitions effective from 20 May 2019 and fixed Boltzmann constant
Here is potential energy, is the stationary-state total energy eigenvalue, and is its spatial wavefunction. Wavefunction normalization gives , and is the probability of finding the particle in .
A bound state requires . Inside the well the equation is , whereas outside it is , withThe ground state is even and has no node, selecting inside. Normalizability selects decaying, not growing, exterior exponentials. Continuity of and givesThe first excited state, if present, is odd: a sine inside and opposite-sign decaying tails outside. Matching gives . On its first odd branch, , hence . Since , existence requiresThis is the first odd bound-state threshold of a square well. There is no excited bound state below that threshold; equality gives a non-normalizable zero-energy limiting state, not an extra bound state.
Original finite-well wavefunctions: an even nodeless ground state and an odd excited state in a deeper illustrative well
. Details. For the numerical well,The exterior probability of a symmetric finite-well state includes both tails:The threshold is , exceeding the well depth, so there is no excited bound state. The rounded supplied coefficients integrate to rather than exactly one; this rounding does not change the quoted probability precision materially.
Past exam of the physics course of the year 1 of the natural sciences course of the University of Cambridge 2022 Section B 9 a Solution Created 2026-10-18 Updated 2026-10-20
The time-independent Schrödinger equation is the energy eigenvalue equation for a particle of mass . The Hamiltonian operator is the sum of the kinetic operator and the prescribed potential energy . Here is the reduced Planck constant. A corresponding stationary state is . The Born rule identifies as probability density for a state with wavefunction normalization ; integrating it over an interval gives a position probability. A plane wave scattering state is not a normalizable wavefunction on the whole line, but its probability currents give the reflection and transmission fractions of an incident wave packet.
There is a notation discrepancy in the sources: the original PDF prints an unbarred in the kinetic term, whereas the local TeX uses . The standard physical equation uses the reduced Planck constant , where is the Planck constant; that convention is used below. Reading the printed literally as the Planck constant would scale all lengths in this model by relative to the standard answers, but would leave the amplitude ratios unchanged.
For , both sides allow oscillatory wavefunctions. A classical particle always crosses the potential step and slows because its kinetic energy falls from to . In quantum mechanics there is generally both reflection and transmission even though the particle is above the step. Define the positive wavenumbersWith no wave incident from the right, writeA finite potential step with constant mass makes both the wavefunction and its first derivative continuous. The two boundary conditions at areSolving gives the reflected and transmitted wavefunctionsFor the specified electron energies, , so the relative probability amplitudes areThe transmitted probability amplitude exceeding one is compatible with conservation of quantum probability, since the outgoing speed is smaller. In fact the probability current givesThese are the quantum reflection probability and transmission probability, which must be distinguished from the requested relative amplitudes.
is the particle's potential energy as a function of position, and is its total energy eigenvalue in this time-independent Schrödinger equation. Solving it with the boundary conditions determines the allowed stationary states and energy levels.
The wavefunction is a probability amplitude: the Born rule gives position probability density , normalized to unit integral for one particle. itself need not be real or positive and is not a classical matter-density profile. The full stationary-state time dependence is , leaving time independent.
The position probability density isand zero outside. It has zeros at and equal maxima at . The two lobes have equal integrated probability. The vertical axis is a density with units of inverse length, not a dimensionless probability at a point.
For independent Poisson random variables with known expected counts , the model variance is . The Pearson chi-squared statistic is thereforeThere are six independently specified bins and no parameters fitted from them, giving approximately six degrees of freedom. This is far above its expected value six; the approximate chi-squared distribution tail probability is . The discrepancies are much too large for a good Poisson-noise fit. Replacing model variances by the observed-count estimates gives the alternative statistic , with the same qualitative conclusion. There is no fitted normalization to justify subtracting a degree of freedom or rescaling the model to the observed total.
In the basis , . Its normalized eigenstates are and , with eigenvalues and . Expanding the initial state in this basis and evolving the two phases gives, with ,The sign of fixes rotation sense; the probability is insensitive to that sign.
In the Stern-Gerlach experiment, a collimated atomic beam passes through a strongly nonuniform magnetic field. The force component separates magnetic-moment projections spatially. Silver atoms provide an effective spin-half moment, yielding two resolved components rather than a continuous distribution of deflections. To test the rotation above, use a first analyzer and aperture to prepare , pass that selected beam through a controlled approximately uniform -directed field, and analyze it with a second -oriented Stern-Gerlach magnet. Varying field strength or interaction time changes the two output populations as the calculated cosine and sine squares. A narrow velocity distribution and controlled field-entry geometry preserve the contrast by reducing variations of interaction time and unwanted spin evolution.
Substitution of a plane wave in the Schrödinger equation gives . For a stationary step-scattering state, remove the common phase and write , . If , the right-side outgoing wave is , . A finite step with no delta-function potential in the Schrödinger operator requires continuous and : a discontinuous wavefunction would generate a delta derivative, and integrating the equation over a vanishing interval gives derivative continuity. Matching yieldsFor , take and the bounded right-side state . It carries no transmitted flux and . The threshold limit also has reflection probability one. Thus at ,For the two-step profile, set , and . With all regions propagating, the net reflection amplitude isThe given quarter-wave condition makes . Zero reflection then requires , equivalent to . ConsequentlyFor an increasing intermediate step this needs and , together with the stipulated thickness condition. In this quarter-wave matching layer for a quantum potential step, two reflected amplitudes cancel while the transmitted flux equals the incident flux.
In the sudden approximation, the nuclear charge changes before the electronic wavefunction has time to evolve. Immediately afterward the state is still the original hydrogenic 1s wavefunction, now expanded in the eigenstates of the new Coulomb Hamiltonian. The final-ground-state probability is the squared overlap, rather than one minus an energy change.
For initial and final charges , the normalized 1s overlap isUsing givesThe remaining probability includes higher bound states and the -wave ionization continuum. In this central, instantaneous model the initial orbital has , and angular orthogonality excludes states with . The electronic spin is unchanged. Nuclear recoil and interactions with the emitted decay particles are outside this leading sudden-charge-change approximation.
For a double quantum dot, write for occupation. Tune a bias window allowing the cycle . Two electrons in the same lowest orbital must form a singlet state by the Pauli exclusion principle. The triplet requires an excited orbital, with an energy cost above the accessible window. Approximately spin-conserving tunnelling transfers into , but cannot transfer into that singlet. Once a triplet loads, transport stops until spin relaxation or mixing occurs: this is Pauli spin blockade. The reverse bias can avoid trapping in this sequence, producing rectification. Coulomb charging sets the allowed occupancies, but the extra blockade is a spin-selection restriction, not merely an energetically forbidden charge state.
magnetically driven spin-blockade lifting uses electron paramagnetic resonance. A transverse oscillating magnetic field drives spin transitions atFlipping one spin in gives , which has a singlet component and can resume charge transfer. A perfectly uniform simultaneous rotation of two identical spins preserves their triplet character; effective relative rotation needs unequal local resonance conditions or another singlet–triplet mixing mechanism. In a real GaAs double dot, inhomogeneous nuclear fields can supply that difference. Hyperfine mixing, spin-orbit effects, cotunnelling and ordinary relaxation also produce leakage and must be distinguished from driven resonance.
A demonstrated device used surface Ti/Au gates to define two dots in a GaAs/AlGaAs electron gas below the surface. An insulated on-chip gold coplanar stripline supplied the oscillating magnetic field. With the dots biased in spin blockade, RF excitation produced current peaks at the two field polarities satisfying resonance. Peak positions varied linearly with frequency, giving . RF applied to a side gate instead gave negligible response, testing magnetic rather than electric excitation. Gate pulses and RF bursts further produced coherent spin-rotation oscillations in the charge readout.[ref]
An ideal isolated resonant spin has Rabi oscillation probability . For a linearly oscillating field of peak amplitude , the rotating-wave convention is . Repeated initialization, isolated manipulation and blockade-sensitive readout can therefore map a damped oscillatory singlet yield into an average current. Nuclear fluctuations, readout rates and dephasing change the envelope and contrast; an ideal sine squared is not a reconstruction of experimental data. Compare RF on/off, resonance tracking with frequency, drive-amplitude dependence and detuning controls. Current enhancement alone does not prove coherent rotations; the pulse-duration oscillations provide the further time-domain test.
Spin blockade and magnetic resonance
. Details. A single gate-defined dot can trap one electron whose lower and upper Zeeman states define . Initialize by energy-selective loading or relaxation, coherently rotate the spin with a resonant magnetic drive or electrically generated spin-dependent drive, and use neighbouring-dot exchange interaction for two-qubit operations. The dot supplies confinement; a full qubit also requires control, coherence and calibrated readout. A nearby quantum point contact or single-electron transistor detects charge capacitively, so spin-to-charge conversion is needed.
In energy-selective spin readout, set the reservoir chemical potential between the two spin-dependent removal energies. The upper state can tunnel out; the lower remains. Reloading can create a temporary empty-dot signal that a time-resolved charge detector records. Resolving this window requires sufficiently small electron-temperature broadening and stable level alignment. The escape should be faster than spin relaxation, but the empty interval must remain long enough for detection. Useful controls include known-state preparation, sensor-noise measurement, varied waiting time and readout pulses, and checks for missed events or thermally activated false escape.[ref]
Single-shot read-out of an individual electron spin in a quantum dot by J. M. Elzerman and others. main-text readout pulse sequence and spin-to-charge conversion, Fig. 1
tunnel-rate-selective spin readout instead places both candidate removal energies on the allowed side of the reservoir and uses different escape rates . After a window with , the fast state has usually changed charge while the slow state has not. It does not require the reservoir Fermi edge to resolve the state splitting, although it still requires controlled charge occupation, substantial rate contrast and relaxation slower than the mapping. The contrast must have a physical origin. A demonstrated single-dot implementation uses two-electron singlet and triplet states: Pauli symmetry puts the triplet's second electron in a higher orbital with stronger lead coupling. Nearly degenerate states can then be distinguished by rate rather than by their energy difference.[ref]
For a bare one-electron Zeeman pair in the same orbital with an unpolarized lead, different tunnel rates are not automatic. A spin-selective barrier/reservoir or another spin-dependent mechanism is needed. The two-electron singlet/triplet example is a different state encoding/readout arrangement, not evidence that the bare single-electron pair already has useful rate contrast.
For the optimal tunnel-rate readout time, assume no relaxation and equal prior probabilities. The fast-state missed-event probability is and the slow-state false-event probability is . Their average is minimized atFinite detector bandwidth, preparation errors, state relaxation and unwanted reloading alter this optimum. energy selection is direct for a resolved single-electron spin but sensitive to the narrow alignment window; rate selection has a wider energy operating window but requires engineered rate contrast and a carefully timed charge measurement. Neither method is an ideal nondestructive spin measurement merely because the charge sensor itself is noninvasive.
Past exam of the plant Sciences course of the University of Cambridge 2024 Paper PLL1 1 Solution 2026-10-20
Epigenetic information affects plant genome evolution both by regulating the behavior of DNA sequences and by supplying heritable regulatory variation on which selection can act. It is therefore neither an alternative to genetic evolution nor merely a passive consequence of it. Changes in DNA methylation, chromatin and small-RNA targeting influence which sequences transpose, recombine, mutate or remain expressed, while the DNA sequence helps determine where those epigenetic states are established.
An epigenetic state is not simply a measurement of expression at one instant. For evolutionary purposes, one must ask whether a difference persists through cell division, survives reproduction and changes a phenotype relevant to reproductive success. An epiallele can differ in regulatory state without a change in the local nucleotide sequence, but many epigenetic differences are caused by genetic variation elsewhere. A newly inserted repeat, for example, may recruit silencing to a nearby gene. The insertion is a genetic difference, while the resulting methylation is part of its mechanism. Demonstrating an independent epigenetic contribution therefore requires more than finding different methylomes in genetically different varieties.
A major connection is control of transposable elements. Mobilization can increase copy number, interrupt coding sequences, change gene regulation and promote rearrangements between repeated sequences. plants silence many such elements through DNA methylation, H3K9me2 and RNA-directed DNA methylation. This protects genome integrity but also permits a genome to tolerate a reservoir of potentially mobile DNA. The physical accessibility of that DNA matters: DDM1 helps methyltransferases reach nucleosomal heterochromatin, showing how chromatin organization contributes to the containment of repetitive sequences.[ref]
The Arabidopsis nucleosome remodeler DDM1 allows DNA methyltransferases to access H1-containing heterochromatin by Assaf Zemach and others. experimental analysis of heterochromatic methylation and transposon regulation
Silencing is not permanently absolute. Failure or reprogramming of maintenance can expose an element to transcription, and a successful new insertion can create a lasting sequence change even if silencing is restored later. Reactivation in a somatic cell is not automatically evolutionarily transmitted: an insertion must reach a reproductive lineage to contribute directly to inherited genome change. In Arabidopsis thaliana pollen, transposon reactivation in the vegetative nucleus was distinguished from the protected sperm lineage; the associated small RNAs illustrated how one cell type can contribute information relevant to silencing in another.[ref]
Epigenetic reprogramming and small RNA silencing of transposable elements in pollen by R. Keith Slotkin and others. Summary and comparison of pollen vegetative nuclei with sperm
This is regulated reprogramming, not indiscriminate activation of the inherited genome.Transposon control also changes the material available for regulatory evolution. An insertion may carry a promoter, enhancer or transcription-factor binding site, while its epigenetic silencing can repress an adjacent gene or define a chromatin boundary. If selection favors part of the inserted sequence, its regulatory contribution can be retained while other element functions decay. Conversely, inappropriate spread of silencing can be harmful. The evolutionary outcome depends on insertion position, expression effects, mobility and host regulation; it is not true that all transposon activity is beneficial or that all methylation near genes is repressive. In particular, gene-body CG methylation and promoter-associated silencing should not be treated as interchangeable states.
Epigenetic information also influences sequence evolution through mutation and recombination. hydrolytic deamination of methylated cytosine can generate a thymine mismatch and, if unrepaired, a C-to-T substitution. A regulatory mark can thus change the probability of a subsequent genetic mutation; the resulting base substitution is no longer an epimutation. chromatin state also helps organize where meiotic breaks and crossovers occur. Repeat-rich heterochromatin often exchanges less readily than gene-rich chromosome arms, altering the degree to which selection acts on linked variants. These effects are contextual rather than a rule that every methylated cytosine or every marked region has the same evolutionary fate.
There is also a genuinely heritable state component. Mutation-accumulation lines of Arabidopsis thaliana showed spontaneous methylation differences across generations, with individual sites more labile than many larger methylated regions and with recurrent changes at some sites.[ref]
Spontaneous epigenetic variation in the Arabidopsis thaliana methylome by Claude Becker and others. comparison of lines descended from a common ancestor; regional stability and recurrent epimutations
Thus an epigenetic variant's evolutionary importance depends jointly on its phenotypic effect, transmission probability and reversion rate. A rapidly reversible state may support plasticity but fail to behave like a stable DNA allele over many generations.Experiments with epigenetic recombinant inbred lines provide evidence that some methylation differences can contribute to quantitative phenotypes. Mapping in a comparatively uniform genetic background identified epigenetic loci associated with flowering time and root length.[ref]
Mapping the epigenetic basis of complex traits by Sandra Cortijo and others. epigenetic quantitative-trait mapping and selection in epiRILs
This establishes a possible substrate for selection, not a claim that most natural adaptation is sequence-independent. Residual sequence variation, new transposon insertions, genetic control of methylation and environment-dependent effects must still be distinguished in natural populations.Hybridization and allopolyploidy create further interactions. Divergent regulatory systems and multiple parental copies must operate together, and changes in chromatin can alter dosage or expression before any gene is lost. In nucleolar dominance, one parental set of ribosomal RNA genes is epigenetically silenced. The involvement of HDA6, DNA methylation and histone-state changes shows that unequal parental expression can arise without deleting the silent set.[ref]
Erasure of histone acetylation by Arabidopsis HDA6 mediates large-scale gene silencing in nucleolar dominance by Keith Earley and others. Abstract and perturbation of parental rRNA-gene silencing
Such expression differences can influence which duplicate functions remain useful, although silencing alone does not prove the later direction of gene loss or subgenome evolution.Epigenetic information therefore shapes genome evolution as a regulator of genome activity, a modifier of genetic change and sometimes an inherited source of phenotypic variation. Its effects must be analyzed together with sequence, reproduction and selection, without assuming that environmentally induced changes are necessarily adaptive or permanently inherited.
Past exam of the plant Sciences course of the University of Cambridge 2024 Paper PLL1 5 Solution 2026-10-20
Crossover limitations can be addressed by changing recombination number, changing its genomic distribution, or overcoming barriers between the chromosomes being crossed. Genetic and epigenetic approaches act on different parts of this problem and can complement each other. The breeding objective is a desired, fertile recombinant, not the largest genome-wide crossover count.
chromosomal crossovers exchange information between homologues during meiosis and allow favorable alleles to be combined while reducing linkage drag from an introgressed segment. However, a chromosome's physical length does not determine where useful crossovers occur. Large repeat-rich and pericentromeric regions may recombine poorly, while many events occur in restricted gene-rich regions. Structural differences, sequence divergence and, in polyploids, partner-choice mechanisms impose further barriers. Increasing events in an already recombination-rich arm may do little for a desired allele locked in a cold region.
Mechanistically, initiating Spo11-dependent DNA breaks is only the first step. Many breaks are repaired without reciprocal crossover, and the designation and maturation of crossover intermediates are tightly controlled. class I crossovers are subject to crossover interference, whereas class II crossovers provide a comparatively noninterfering route. crossover assurance helps maintain the connections needed for balanced homolog segregation. A modification that generates more breaks but leaves repair or chromosome pairing defective can therefore reduce fertility rather than improve breeding.
One genetic approach increases pro-crossover activity. Natural variation and dosage of the E3 ligase HEI10 affect crossover recombination in Arabidopsis thaliana, providing an example of a trans-acting modifier rather than a local sequence hotspot.[ref]
Natural variation and dosage of the HEI10 meiotic E3 ligase control Arabidopsis crossover recombination by Piotr A. Ziolkowski and others. HEI10 dosage and crossover measurements
This can increase the pool of recombinant products, but interference, local chromatin and chromosome structure still constrain where events mature. A beneficial effect must be tested in the target hybrid background rather than assumed from the model species.Another route weakens anti-crossover activities. RECQ4, FANCM and FIGL1 regulate the processing of meiotic intermediates, with different phenotypic effects across plant contexts. Disruption of RECQ4 orthologues increased crossovers by about threefold in rice, pea and tomato hybrids in the reported experiments.[ref]
Unleashing meiotic crossovers in crops by Delphine Mieulet and others. comparative RECQ4 analysis in rice, pea and tomato
This is direct crop evidence for relaxing one limit. It does not establish that every anti-crossover mutation works equally well, that combinations remain fertile, or that recombination is released uniformly across the genome. Extra events can also disrupt favorable linked combinations, so later breeding selection remains essential.Epigenetic approaches address the chromatin landscape. DNA methylation, H3K9me2 and nucleosome organization influence access to meiotic break formation and the subsequent probability of crossover. In Arabidopsis thaliana, disruption of H3K9 and non-CG methylation pathways, including CMT3 and SUVH4, SUVH5 and SUVH6, increased recombination near centromeres. The study combined break-related measurements with cytological crossover markers and genotyped recombinants, rather than inferring crossover gain from open chromatin alone.[ref]
The distinction between redistribution and total increase is crucial. A methylation perturbation can move crossovers from one region to another without increasing their total number, and loss of CG methylation need not have the same effect as disrupting non-CG/H3K9 pathways. More initiating breaks need not become crossovers. Moreover, repeat-rich regions and the functional centromere are not interchangeable: an increase in pericentromeric events does not mean that crossing over can safely be allowed everywhere. Suppression close to centromeres also helps preserve chromosome segregation.
For breeding, locus- or stage-specific chromatin manipulation is an attractive aim because it might alter accessibility near a desired target without permanently destabilizing the rest of the genome. Nevertheless, this remains an aim to validate rather than a universal solution. Broad demethylation can derepress transposons, alter expression and affect gamete quality. A local epigenetic change may be restored by maintenance pathways before meiosis, and modifying a region's accessibility does not remove an inversion or create homology that is absent. Combining a crossover-promoting genetic background with a justified local chromatin change is mechanistically plausible, but its value must be established by mapping actual transmitted crossovers.
Partner choice is a separate genetic limitation. In bread wheat, the Ph1 locus contributes to meiotic stability and limits exchange between related homoeologous chromosomes. Relaxing this control can facilitate homoeologous recombination useful for introgressing material from relatives, but it also changes the risk of inappropriate pairing or unbalanced products.[ref]
Dual effect of the wheat Ph1 locus on chromosome synapsis and crossover by Azahara C. Martín and others. homologue/homoeologue discrimination, synapsis and crossover outcomes
Structural compatibility and fertility therefore need assessment alongside the desired donor segment. In inversion heterozygotes, recovery of balanced recombinants can remain limited even if meiotic breaks become more frequent.The practical value can be expressed in terms of the target gamete's probability. If two desired alleles are in repulsion, , and the interval has recombination fraction , an idealized model gives the desired recombinant probability . Among independent sampled gametes,For , and at least 2995 gametes are needed for a 95% chance under this model. Increasing useful recombination can therefore reduce screening costs greatly, but crossover counts elsewhere do not change this calculation. Actual progeny designs must also account for mating scheme, viability and transmission distortion.
A successful strategy therefore measures where extra crossovers occur, whether they produce the intended haplotype and whether that haplotype is transmitted by fertile plants. Genetic pathway changes, epigenetic redistribution and partner-choice control solve related but distinct constraints; none removes the need for genotype-specific validation and selection.
Past exam of the plant Sciences course of the University of Cambridge 2025 Paper plm3 2 Solution 2026-10-20
Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetics can use the same model of sequence evolution, but they answer different inferential questions: optimization of the likelihood versus a posterior distribution over trees and other unknowns. Let be a sequence alignment, a phylogenetic tree topology, its branch lengths in expected substitutions per site, and the parameters of a nucleotide substitution model. Both methods can useThe likelihood function sums over unobserved ancestral states, rather than choosing one ancestral sequence and treating it as observed. For conditionally independent sites it is a product of site likelihoods; transitions along a branch can be described by the matrix exponential of a continuous-time Markov chain rate matrix . The phylogenetic pruning algorithm computes the ancestral sums efficiently.[ref]
Evolutionary trees from DNA sequences: a maximum likelihood approach by Joseph Felsenstein. Journal of Molecular Evolution 17, pp. 368–376; likelihood calculation by summing over ancestral states
With maximum likelihood estimation, one seeksIn practice, the enormous discrete tree space requires searches and repeated optimization of continuous parameters; heuristic failure to find the best tree is a computational error distinct from statistical uncertainty. A tree's optimized likelihood is not the probability that it is correct. bootstrap analyses resample alignment columns and repeat inference to assess support under the resampling procedure; their frequencies are not automatically posterior probabilities. Independence assumptions matter, because linked sites and heterogeneous loci can make simple column resampling an imperfect representation of replication.
In Bayesian phylogenetic inference,The prior distribution supplies weights on topologies, branch lengths and model parameters. Integrating over nuisance parameters givesThus a very narrow likelihood peak can lose posterior support to a broader region with a slightly lower maximum. maximum a posteriori estimation is another optimization and does not replace this integration. Markov chain Monte Carlo provides dependent samples approximating the posterior distribution; a clade's posterior probability is the posterior mass of trees containing that clade. The early likelihood-based Bayesian formulation explicitly distinguished these probabilities from bootstrap support.[ref]
Probability distribution of molecular evolutionary trees: a new method of phylogenetic inference by Bruce Rannala and Ziheng Yang. Journal of Molecular Evolution 43, pp. 304–311; posterior probabilities of trees and comparison with bootstrap proportions
Neither approach is protected against systematic error. Poor sequence alignment, incorrect orthology assignments, compositionally heterogeneous sequences, and an inadequate substitution process can support a wrong tree with high apparent confidence. A gene tree can differ from a species tree because of incomplete lineage sorting or introgression; extra sequence from that gene does not automatically fix the mismatch. Model comparison, biological examination of the data and sensitivity to locus sampling are needed in both approaches. In Bayesian analyses, agreement among short chains is not proof of convergence: independent runs, adequate mixing between topologies and an appropriate effective sample size of a Markov chain should be checked. A credible interval and a confidence interval also have different interpretations even if their numerical endpoints happen to resemble one another.
Time inference adds a particularly strong role for assumptions. If a branch spans , with mean rate , its expected length is . Without an external absolute-time anchor, scaling every time by and every rate by leaves the sequence likelihood unchanged. Even a very long alignment can identify branch lengths accurately without identifying an absolute calendar scale. For example, a lineage length substitutions per site is compatible with per site per million years and million years, or twice that rate and half that duration. This is an identifiability issue, not merely a shortage of sampled bases.
In Bayesian divergence-time inference, a schematic joint analysis iswhere is fossil information already used to construct the conditional prior. An alternative generative analysis includes a fossil-sampling likelihood explicitly; the same fossil evidence must not be counted twice. A strict molecular clock equates rates across branches; a relaxed molecular clock allows variation, whose distribution and correlations also require specification. A narrow rate prior favors particular absolute ages, and a strong rate-smoothing assumption can redistribute inferred time among branches. A birth-death process prior on the tree encodes assumptions about lineage origination, extinction and sampling; it is not a neutral choice just because it is mathematically convenient.
fossil calibration must separate a fossil's geological age from the age of the lineage split it constrains. A confidently placed crown fossil gives a minimum age for the relevant crown, whereas a stem fossil does not automatically set that crown minimum. Uncertain placement and the incompleteness of the record complicate upper bounds. hard calibration bounds assign zero probability outside the permitted range; enough sequence cannot overcome a zero prior. soft calibration bounds allow small tail probabilities, exposing rather than eliminating the possibility of conflict. Multiple-calibration analyses demonstrate that changing the treatment of bounds changes inferred times and uncertainty.[ref]
Bayesian estimation of species divergence times under a molecular clock using multiple fossil calibrations with soft bounds by Ziheng Yang and Bruce Rannala. Molecular Biology and Evolution 23, pp. 212–226; hard versus soft bounds and the divergence-time prior
Furthermore, separately specified calibration densities are not necessarily the marginal priors the program uses. The rule that an ancestor must be older than its descendant truncates their joint possibilities. If two ages are initially independent uniform variables on , conditioning on gives marginal densities and , respectively. Neither remains uniform. Combining tree-process priors, calibration densities and ordering constraints can therefore introduce substantial information unintentionally.[ref]
Conceptual issues in Bayesian divergence time estimation by Bruce Rannala. Sections on node ordering and the realized joint prior; recommendation to sample the prior with a fixed likelihood
The practical response is to run the analysis without sequence information to inspect the effective prior distribution, then compare it with the posterior distribution. Repeat under defensible calibration tails, rate models, tree priors and fossil placements; report which ages change and whether the data sharpen relative ages more than absolute ages. Examine prior predictive checks and posterior predictive checks, and keep numerical mixing diagnostics separate from biological model adequacy. Priors can legitimately supply the time information missing from sequences, but narrow posterior ages are persuasive only when that information and its sensitivity are explicit.
Use from part (a). We already proved convergence in distribution to zero. For any prescribed , put . Then , and the cumulative distribution function satisfiesThis includes and , since the uniform distribution assigns zero probability to each endpoint. The limit cumulative distribution function is discontinuous at zero, explaining why the conclusion of (ii) does not apply there.
Fix . Once , the following event inclusions hold outside :Taking probabilities gives the explicit boundsBy the assumed convergence in probability, the error tends to zero. ThereforeThe continuity of the cumulative distribution function at lets decrease to zero, proving This proves the needed implication directly, without invoking any theorem comparing convergence of random variables.
Separate a long future count from the early Poisson arrival time. Let be the natural filtration, and defineThe truncated Poisson arrival time in is -measurable. The independent increments property makes independent of , and hence of .
The numerator of is a centered Poisson random variable of parameter . Apply the central limit theorem to the unit-time increments, then use and Slutsky's theorem. This proves . Also, Markov's inequality and giveThus equals outside an event of vanishing probability, so part (i) and Slutsky's theorem give . Exact independence of random variables for each now gives the joint limit with independent standard normal random variables.
Finally, and , so Chebyshev's inequality gives in probability. The first coordinate in the question is . The second differs from only on , and so its difference tends to zero in probability. The vector version of Slutsky's theorem proves the required joint convergence in distribution. The boundary of has zero limiting probability, since both marginal distributions have continuous cumulative distribution functions. The Portmanteau theorem therefore yieldsThis is by independence of random variables.
The possible limiting correlation coefficients areThe direction of the dependence comes from inversion of the same counting process: extra arrivals produce a larger count but an earlier -th Poisson arrival time. Shared fluctuations therefore enter the two coordinates with opposite signs. Positive limiting correlation cannot arise; this can be formalized using negative quadrant dependence of a Poisson count and an arrival time.
At the same time scale, , part (iii) rules out every positive-positive quadrant. A bivariate normal distribution with standard normal marginal distributions and assigns positive probability to such a quadrant. Thus, under the assumed joint limit, this choice forces . At very different time scales, , part (iv) gives .
Intermediate time scales retain an intermediate fraction of the same arrival fluctuations. In particular, the Poisson count-arrival joint central limit theorem gives for with . These choices realize every , and supplies zero. This identifies the whole interval without requiring an additional limit calculation in this part.
The premise about a bivariate normal distribution is understood to apply when a joint limit exists. Merely requiring cannot guarantee one: taking for even and for odd gives different limits along the two subsequences just identified.
Take a discrete probability distribution on three points:The probabilities are positive and sum to one. Direct calculation givesandNevertheless it is not a symmetric distribution, since while . Vanishing of just the first and third moments does not force all odd moments to vanish.



