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Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 R R2 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Represent the two sides of the marriage problem as the parts of a bipartite graph, with an edge for each allowed pairing. A matching is a set of edges with no common endpoint; a complete matching of covers every vertex in . When the two parts have equal size it also covers , giving a perfect matching.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P4 d Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Multiplying the system by turns it into . For nonsingular , compute the transformed right side and solve the upper triangular system by back substitution. Orthogonal transformations preserve Euclidean lengths and do not amplify errors in that transformation.
If is singular,Since , at least one diagonal entry of is zero. The resulting triangular system must then be checked for consistency and any free variables, rather than applying divisions by zero.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P4 c Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Apply part (b) to the first column of , using an orthogonal reflection to zero all entries below the first. Next apply a Householder reflection to the trailing subvector of the second column, embedded as so it leaves the first row and the zeros already created intact. Continue similarly through the columns. If a trailing column subvector is zero, skip that step.
The product of these embedded orthogonal matrices sends to an upper triangular matrix . Write that product as ; its transpose is also orthogonal. HenceThe argument uses no inverse of and therefore includes singular matrices.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P4 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P4 a Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For nonzero , the Householder transformation isThe rank-one matrix is symmetric and satisfies . Consequently and . Thus the matrix is symmetric and orthogonal; geometrically it reflects the component along and fixes its perpendicular hyperplane.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P3 d Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
By part (c), the best degree-at-most-two polynomial is odd, so it must be . Orthogonality to givesThereforeIts error is automatically orthogonal to the even basis functions by parity, and the chosen coefficient makes it orthogonal to , so part (b) verifies optimality.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P3 c Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For odd , define . It is another polynomial in . Changing variables , and using evenness of the weight , gives . Thus is also a best polynomial. Uniqueness from part (b) gives , provingEquivalently, the even component of a candidate is orthogonal to the odd residual and can only increase the squared error.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P3 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
If the error is orthogonal to , then for any ,proving sufficiency. Conversely, if minimizes, perturb it to for any real . The squared error becomesA minimum at forces the linear coefficient to vanish, proving necessity.
For existence, choose the basis . Its Gram matrix is positive definite because is the squared norm of the nonzero polynomial with coefficients . Thus is invertible, and the normal equations have a solution, giving an orthogonal residual and therefore a minimizer. The Pythagorean identity shows any other minimizer differs by a polynomial of zero norm, so it is equal to the first. Hence the best polynomial exists and is unique.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 P P3 a Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The best polynomial minimizes the weighted squared error among all polynomials of degree at most :The given inner product is positive definite on continuous functions despite the weight vanishing at zero: a continuous nonzero function is nonzero on an interval containing nonzero points, so its weighted square integral is strictly positive.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 O O5 d Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Put and . The normal law of the estimator gives . The fitted and residual Gaussian projections are orthogonal and hence independent, so this quantity is independent of . Their ratio therefore has Student's t-distribution:If is its upper quantile, rearranging its central probability event givesThis interval has exact coverage under the given normal linear model, rather than merely large-sample coverage.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 O O5 c Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Let . The usual unbiased error-variance estimator isIndeed the residual is the orthogonal projection of onto the -dimensional complement of the design column space, giving and expected RSS equal to . The maximum-likelihood estimator instead divides RSS by ; the unbiased divisor above is the one used for the exact t-interval in part (d).
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 O O5 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Write . Since , the estimator is . ThereforeIts expectation proves unbiasedness. It is also jointly normal, being an affine transformation of the normal error vector.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 O O5 a Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The normal-error log-likelihood, for fixed variance, is a constant minus . Differentiating the squared residual gives the normal equations . Since has full column rank, is positive definite and the squared residual is strictly convex in . Hence the unique minimizer, and thus the maximum-likelihood estimator, isProfiling over the unknown positive variance does not change the residual-minimizing value of .
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 O O4 c Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The generalized likelihood ratio compares the constrained maximum from part (b) with the unrestricted maximum from part (a). Taking minus twice its logarithm givesThe unrestricted model has free parameters; the independence model has . Thus the asymptotic null distribution is , with four degrees of freedom. The supplied value givesTherefore reject independence at the 5% level, but not at the 1% level. There is evidence of an association between the two classifications. The fitted expected counts are all about nine or larger, so the usual chi-squared approximation has no very small expected cells here.
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 O O4 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Under the product constraint the log-likelihood separates:Maximizing the two simplex problems independently gives and . HenceThe fitted expected cell counts under independence are consequently .
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 O O4 a Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Ignoring the multinomial coefficient, the likelihood is . Maximize with . A Lagrange multiplier gives ; summing the resulting gives . ThusBecause every count is positive, the log-likelihood is strictly concave on the interior simplex and this solution is its unique maximum.
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