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Use the positive-support geometric distribution, $\mathbb{P}(X=j)=p(1-p{)}^{j-1}$ for $j\ge 1$, $0<p\le 1$. Differentiating the geometric series suppliesFor the jar, let $W_r$ be the waiting time to remove one red ball when exactly $r$ red balls remain. Every draw has success probability $r/n$, so $W_r$ is geometric with that parameter. The $W_r$ are independent: after each success, fresh independent draws begin a new stage, and its conditional waiting distribution depends only on the deterministic count $r$, not on earlier waiting times. Replacing a green ball leaves that stage's count unchanged.

Thus the coupon collector problem decomposition is $T={\sum }_{r=1}^n{W}_r$, andThis is the coupon collector waiting-time variance. For $n=1$, the formula correctly gives zero variance and a deterministic one-minute completion.

The exponential distribution has survival probability $e^{-u}$ for $u\ge 0$. Conditional probability therefore giveswhich proves the memoryless property. Let $K=\lfloor Z\rfloor$ and $U=Z-K$. With $q=e^{-1}$,The geometric distribution here starts at zero. Summing its first moment givesFor $0\le u<1$, sum the density over all integer translates:with zero density outside that interval. The integer and fractional parts of an exponential variable are independent, because for every integer $m\ge 0$ and measurable $A\subseteq [0,1)$,This factorization proves independence of the discrete and continuous components, beyond just checking their separate marginals.

The exponential distribution with rate $\beta >0$ has moment-generating function $\beta /(\beta -t)$ for $t<\beta$. Shifting it by $\alpha$ multiplies the moment-generating function by $e^{\alpha t}$. Therefore the shifted-exponential Poisson mixture has probability generating functionThe probability generating function converges and is analytic for $|z|<\beta +1$, and in particular is finite for real $0\le z<\beta +1$.

Write $p=\beta /(\beta +1)$ and $q=1/(\beta +1)$, so $p+q=1$. The factor $e^{\alpha (z-1)}$ is the probability generating function of $V\sim \mathrm{Poisson}(\alpha )$, while $p/(1-qz)$ is that of a geometric distribution on $\{0,1,\dots \}$, with $\mathbb{P}(W=j)=p{q}^j$. Choose $V$ and $W$ independently. The product rule for the probability generating function of a sum of independent counts then proves $N\stackrel{d}{=}V+W$. The support-zero convention for $W$ is essential here.

The convolution of independent random variables gives the finite sumTaking the logarithmic derivative of the probability generating function givesCompare coefficients of $z^{n-1}$, for $n\ge 2$. The left side is $(\beta +1)n{p}_n-(n-1)p_{n-1}$, and the right side is $\{1+\alpha (\beta +1)\}{p}_{n-1}-\alpha p_{n-2}$. Hence the shifted-exponential Poisson count recursion isThe constant and linear coefficients supply the starting valuesThese two values determine every subsequent probability by the recursion. The negative second term does not mean that the distribution has negative probabilities: the convolution formula exhibits every $p_n$ as a sum of nonnegative quantities.

At $\alpha =0$ the independent Poisson distribution component is identically zero and the count has a geometric distribution. Both the finite sum and the recursion reduce to $p_n=q{p}_{n-1}$. Consequently the Panjer claim-count class parameters areAlthough the shifted model initially has positive $\alpha$, this zero-shift boundary case is well defined.

Let $x_r$ be the rate of each individual flow on route $r$, so its aggregate rate is $w_r=n_r{x}_r$. The feasible allocations satisfy ${\sum }_{r:j\in r}{n}_r{x}_r\le C_j$. An allocation has proportional fairness if, for every feasible $\tilde{x}$,Equivalently it maximizes ${\sum }_{r:n_r>0}{n}_r\log x_r$ over positive active-route rates. This is the first-order optimality condition for a concave objective on a convex set. Rates for absent flows can be set to zero.

For the linear flow network, put $N={\sum }_{r=0}^I{n}_r$ and $M={\sum }_{i=1}^I{n}_i$. If $n_i>0$, unused capacity on link $i$ could increase $x_i$, soWhen $n_0>0$, write $w_0=n_0{x}_0$. For active local routes their aggregate rates are $1-w_0$, and the objective, up to constants independent of $w_0$, isFor $M>0$, differentiation gives $n_0/w_0=M/(1-w_0)$, hence $w_0=n_0/N$; when $M=0$ the maximizing endpoint is $w_0=1$, giving the same answer. Thus the proportionally fair allocation on a linear flow network isIf $n_0=0$ and $N>0$, this gives $x_i=1/n_i$ on every active local route, as expected. No departure occurs at the empty state.

Independent Poisson processes of flow arrivals and independent exponential distributions of document sizes make the count vector a continuous-time Markov chain. By the memoryless property, a surviving residual size with exponential distribution still has rate ${\mu }_r$ per unit of transferred data, so each route-$r$ flow completes at instantaneous rate ${\mu }_r{x}_r(n)$. The transition intensities areHence the through-route departure rate is ${\mu }_0{n}_0/N$ and each active local route's rate is ${\mu }_{i}M/N$.

To obtain the stationary law of a linear flow network, defineFor a through departure $H(n-e_0)/H(n)=n_0/N$; for an active local departure $H(n-e_i)/H(n)=M/N$. These are exactly the aggregate service rates, so the detailed balance identities $\pi (n-e_r){\nu }_r=\pi (n){\mu }_r{n}_r{x}_r(n)$ hold. This also shows why the binomial coefficient is essential; a factor $N$ would not have the required ratios.

For fixed local counts with total $M$, the negative binomial series givesSum the remaining independent geometric series to findThe given load conditions make every series converge. Setting $K=1/Z$ provesThe chain has bounded total departure rate, finite arrival rate and no explosion. With positive arrival rates it is irreducible, and this normalized invariant law gives the positive recurrent Markov chain property; zero arrival rates restrict the stationary support to the corresponding reachable class.

Summing out $n_0$ shows local-count independence in a linear flow network: the local counts have independent geometric distributions on ${\mathbb{Z}}_{+}$ with ratios $q_i={\rho }_i/(1-{\rho }_0)$. ThereforeThey are independent of one another under the stationary marginal, despite sharing the random through-flow population. The through count is generally dependent on them.

The moment-generating function of a mixture distribution is the mixture of its component transforms, soFor the aggregate, positivity of every claim implies $S=0$ exactly when $N=0$. ChooseIf $q>0$, take $\tilde{N}$ to have the zero-truncated claim-count distribution, namely the conditional law of $N$ given $N>0$. ThenChoose this count independently of a fresh independent claim-size sequence and put $Z={\sum }_{i=1}^{\tilde{N}}{X}_i$. Its probability distribution is that of $S$ conditional on being positive. Thus the hurdle decomposition of a positive random sum givesand an independent Bernoulli random variable $B$ of success probability $q$ realizes $S\stackrel{d}{=}BZ$. This establishes the distributional representation, including that $Z$ is itself a positive random sum of independent claims. If $p=1$, the aggregate is identically zero; set $q=0$ and choose any positive $Z$, for example one claim. Conditioning the count on positivity is then unnecessary and would be undefined.

For the specified geometric distribution on the nonnegative integers,An exponential distribution of expected value $\mu$ has transform $M_X(r)=(1-\mu r{)}^{-1}$. Substitution yieldsHence $Z$ is exponential with rate $1/(2\mu )$ and expected value $2\mu$. This is the geometric sum of exponential variables with a rescaling of the claim mean. Identification can also use the uniqueness theorem for Laplace transforms of nonnegative random variables by taking $r\le 0$.

The resulting distribution function isIts jump of size $1/2$ at zero is important: the aggregate law is not a purely continuous exponential distribution.

For the geometric distribution supported on positive integers, set $q=1-p$. The geometric series and its derivative giveEquivalently, the sum of the tail probabilities is ${\sum }_{k\ge 0}P(T>k)={\sum }_{k\ge 0}{q}^k=1/p$. For $p=0.02$, the expected wait is 50 years, so this is the 50-year return level. The exceedance probability determines the return period, but does not by itself determine a numerical flow rate.

A feasible per-flow allocation satisfies $x_r>0$ for each active route and ${\sum }_r{A}_{jr}{n}_r{x}_r\le C_j$. It has proportional fairness if every feasible competitor obeysBy the first-order inequality for the strictly concave logarithm, this is equivalent to maximizing weighted logarithmic utility ${\sum }_{r:n_r>0}{n}_r\log x_r$ over the feasible allocations. Inactive-route rates are immaterial; set them to zero as a convention.

Write $a=n_{\{1\}}$, $b=n_{\{2\}}$, $c=n_{\{1,2\}}$, and $N=a+b+c$. The capacity constraints are $a{x}_1+c{x}_0\le 1$ and $b{x}_2+c{x}_0\le 1$. For $c>0$, put $q=c{x}_0$. Each active local route uses its remaining capacity $1-q$. Omitting constants, the utility isIts maximum has $q=c/N$; when $a+b=0$, the maximum is the endpoint $q=1$. Hence for active routesThese formulas also give $x_1=1/a$ and $x_2=1/b$ when $c=0$. When $N=0$ there is no allocated service. Equivalently, the aggregate route rates for $N>0$ areThis is the proportionally fair allocation on a two-resource linear network for a two-resource linear flow network.

For independent Poisson processes of documents and independent document sizes with exponential distribution of rate ${\mu }_r$, the memorylessness of the exponential distribution makes the population a continuous-time Markov chain. Its transition intensities areThe departure intensity sums the $n_r$ independent completion hazards ${\mu }_r{x}_r$. There is no departure on an inactive route. Set ${\rho }_r={\nu }_r/{\mu }_r$, with ${\mu }_r>0$.

To prove the proposed stationary distribution, define the balance function of a flow-level networkFor an active local route, $\Psi (n-e_r)/\Psi (n)=(a+b)/N$, while for the through route this ratio is $c/N$. Thus ${\Lambda }_r(n)=\Psi (n-e_r)/\Psi (n)$. The weightssatisfy detailed balance on every arrival-departure pair:Each total jump rate is bounded by ${\sum }_r({\nu }_r+{\mu }_r)$, so the chain is a nonexplosive Markov chain; normalized detailed-balance weights therefore give its stationary distribution, the stationary law of a two-resource linear flow network.

Use the negative binomial series to sum first over $c$:The remaining two geometric series giveAll summands are nonnegative. Consequently the sum is finite exactly under the stability conditions for a two-resource linear flow networkThese say that the offered load on each unit-capacity resource is strictly below one. Equality is insufficient: at least one geometric series then diverges. If all arrival rates are positive, the chain is irreducible and the normalizable law is its unique equilibrium law.

Finally put $q_i={\rho }_i/(1-{\rho }_0)$, $i=1,2$. Summing over $c$ yieldsThus the two local-route counts are independent, each with geometric distribution on the nonnegative integers. The conditional through-route count has negative binomial distributionFor positive traffic rates this depends on the local counts, so all three route counts are not independent. More quantitatively, $\mathrm{Cov}(a,c)={\rho }_0\mathrm{Var}(a)/(1-{\rho }_0)>0$, and likewise for $b$. If zero arrival rates are allowed, the exceptional independent cases are ${\rho }_0=0$, or ${\rho }_1={\rho }_2=0$, when the relevant counts are deterministic zero. This distinction is local-count independence with through-flow dependence.

Independence of individual bit errors gives $P=(1-p{)}^{4N}$. Independent retransmissions have a geometric distribution with success probability $P$, so the expected total number of transmissions, including the successful one, is $1/P$. At the supplied values, $P\approx 0.018279$ and $1/P\approx 54.71$.

An open migration process is a continuous-time Markov chain recording the populations $n=(n_1,\dots ,n_J)$ of finitely many colonies. Independent external Poisson processes bring individuals to colony $j$ at rate ${\nu }_j$. When that colony contains $k>0$ individuals, a departure opportunity occurs at total rate ${\varphi }_j(k)>0$, with ${\varphi }_j(0)=0$. The departing individual moves to colony $l$ with probability $p_{jl}$, or leaves the system with probability $p_{j0}=1-{\sum }_l{p}_{jl}$. Routing choices and the clocks are independent. A return to the same colony does not change the state.

The word open means that the routing matrix $P=(p_{jl})$ is transient: every individual eventually leaves, or equivalently the spectral radius of $P$ is less than one. The traffic equations of an open migration process, with row-vector convention, give the total arrival rates:These rates include migrations as well as external arrivals. On the active colonies assume ${\alpha }_j>0$ and the usual irreducible Markov chain condition. PutThe product form and its normalization condition areTo establish the product-form stationary distribution of an open migration process, first use its unnormalized weight $b(n)={\prod }_j{b}_j(n_j)$. Its ratios satisfy $b_j(k){\varphi }_j(k)={\alpha }_j{b}_j(k-1)$. The incoming external arrivals into $n$, divided by $b(n)$, contribute ${\sum }_j{\nu }_j{\varphi }_j(n_j)/{\alpha }_j$. Incoming exits contribute ${\sum }_i{\alpha }_i{p}_{i0}$. Incoming migrations from $i$ to $j\ne i$ contribute ${\alpha }_i{p}_{ij}{\varphi }_j(n_j)/{\alpha }_j$. Terms involving an empty destination are zero. Thus the full incoming rate divided by $b(n)$ isHere the traffic equations of an open migration process give the second equality, including ${\sum }_i{\alpha }_i{p}_{i0}={\sum }_j{\nu }_j$. The right side is precisely the total outgoing rate. This proves global balance for a continuous-time Markov chain; pairwise detailed balance is not required for general routing.

For finite rates at each finite population, the continuous-time Markov chain is nonexplosive Markov chain: its total population is bounded over a finite time interval by the initial population plus the finitely many external arrivals, so it visits a finite set on which all jump rates are bounded. Consequently finite $Z_j$ normalize the invariant weight to a stationary distribution. Under the stated irreducible Markov chain assumptions, this is the unique stationary distribution, and it is a positive recurrent Markov chain. Conversely, the unique invariant measure of an irreducible recurrent chain is proportional to $b$, so a positive recurrent Markov chain requires its normalization to be finite. A sufficient condition is ${\mathrm{liminf}}_{k\to \infty }{\varphi }_j(k)>{\alpha }_j$; the series criterion itself is the exact condition. Colonies with ${\alpha }_j=0$ have zero stationary population and can be removed from the active class.

For the single-server M-M-1 queue specialization, ${\varphi }_j(k)={\varphi }_j$ for $k>0$, each stationary colony has the geometric distribution of an M-M-1 queue:The traffic equations of an open migration process do not involve the service rates, so the ${\alpha }_j$ remain fixed during this service-capacity allocation in an open migration process. Write $A={\sum }_j{\alpha }_j$, $B=F-A$ and $b_j={\varphi }_j-{\alpha }_j$. A stationary allocation requires $B>0$, with $b_j>0$ and ${\sum }_j{b}_j=B$. The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality givesEquality holds exactly when $b_j$ is proportional to $\sqrt{{\alpha }_j}$. Hence, for positive arrival rates, the unique optimal service allocation and the minimum expected value of the total population areIf $F\le A$ and some arrival rate is positive, no stable service allocation exists. Zero-arrival colonies need no service in their stationary empty class: allowing zero service there gives the same formula restricted to active colonies. If strictly positive service is demanded even at inactive colonies, the displayed minimum is an infimum approached as that unused allocation tends to zero. If all arrivals vanish, the stationary mean population is zero for every allocation that drains the initial population.

Only routes with $n_r>0$ contribute to proportional fairness or to the weighted logarithmic utility; omit inactive routes from expressions with a rate in the denominator. Active routes have positive rates whenever a positive feasible allocation exists. For a feasible competitor $y$, the elementary logarithm inequality $\log u\le u-1$ givesA zero competitor rate on an active route has utility $-\infty$ and also cannot improve the objective. Therefore a proportionally fair allocation maximizes the logarithmic objective. Conversely, the feasible set is a convex set, and differentiating the objective along $x+t(y-x)$ at $t=0+$ shows that an optimizer satisfies the proportional fairness inequality. Strict concavity gives uniqueness on active coordinates; rates assigned to nonexistent flows are immaterial.

In the linear flow network, put $z_0=n_0{x}_0$ and $z_i=n_i{x}_i$ for active routes. A local route $i$ uses only resource $i$. If $n_i>0$ and $z_0+z_i<1$, increasing $x_i$ increases the objective without violating any other constraint. Thus each active local route saturates its resource:Write $L={\sum }_{i=1}^I{n}_i$ and $N=n_0+L$. For $n_0>0$ and $L>0$, substitute $z_i=1-z_0$ into the objective. Apart from constants its dependence on $z_0$ isIts derivative vanishes when $n_0/z_0=L/(1-z_0)$, and its second derivative is negative. Hence the per-flow through-route rate isIf $L=0<n_0$, the optimal through-route aggregate rate is one, so $x_0=1/n_0=1/N$ still holds. If $n_0=0<L$, each active local route has $x_i=1/n_i$, also given by the displayed local formula. When $N=0$ there are no flows and no departures. Inactive coordinates need not be assigned these undefined per-flow formulas.

Independent arrivals and exponential document sizes make this a flow-level network model. A document of type $r$ has residual-size hazard ${\mu }_r$ per unit of data transmitted; when its transmission speed is $x_r(n)$, its completion hazard per unit time is ${\mu }_r{x}_r(n)$. Thus the continuous-time Markov chain of flow counts has transition intensitiesFor $N>0$ these departure intensities are ${\mu }_0{n}_0/N$ for the through route and ${\mu }_{i}L/N$ for an active local route. Total arrival intensity is constant and total departure intensity is bounded by ${\sum }_r{\mu }_r$, ensuring a nonexplosive Markov chain.

Set ${\rho }_r={\nu }_r/{\mu }_r$, the offered traffic, and define the balance function of a flow-level networkThe binomial coefficients satisfyThese identities also cover states with only one kind of active route. They show that the weight $a(n)=\Phi (n){\prod }_{r=0}^I{\rho }_r^{n_r}$ satisfiesThus detailed balance for a continuous-time Markov chain proves that this is a reversible Markov chain and reduces the stationary distribution calculation to normalization.

Sum over $n_0$ first. The negative binomial series gives, for fixed local counts and $L={\sum }_i{n}_i$,All summands are nonnegative, so the Tonelli theorem permits exchanging the sums. The partition sum is thereforeIt is finite exactly when ${\rho }_0+{\rho }_i<1$ for every $i$, for $I\ge 1$. These are the resource-load conditions: resource $i$ receives the through-route offered traffic plus its local offered traffic. The normalized stationary distribution isWith positive arrival rates this is the unique stationary distribution of the irreducible feasible flow-count chain. Zero arrival rates restrict its closed class to the corresponding zero coordinates.

Summing out $n_0$ also shows that the local counts are independent, with geometric distributions on $0,1,\dots$:Hence their mean flow counts areThe binomial balance factor is essential: independent geometric counts for all routes would not give these departure rates or the correct resource-load normalization.

Let $r_i$ be the probability of returning to $i$ after its first departure. Transience means $r_i<1$; in particular $q_i>0$. By the Strong Markov property, the number $N$ of visits, including the initial visit, has the geometric distribution $\mathbb{P}(N=n)=(1-r_i)r_i^{n-1}$, $n\ge 1$. The holding times of these visits are independent $\mathrm{Exp}(q_i)$ variables and are independent of the jump-chain return decisions.

For the total occupation time of a continuous-time Markov chain $T_i$ and $s\ge 0$, summing over $N$ givesUniqueness of the Laplace transform identifiesStarting elsewhere adds an atom at zero if the state might never be hit; the purely exponential conclusion uses the specified initial state $i$.

Let $R$ be the number of returns to $v$ after time $0$. Since $v$ is a recurrent state, the probability of another return after each visit is one. By the stated geometric distribution description, ${\mathbb{P}}_v(R\ge k)=1$ for every positive integer $k$. Thus $R=\infty$ almost surely and ${\mathbb{E}}_{v}R=\infty$.

On the other hand, writing each visit as an indicator random variable and applying the monotone convergence theorem to the partial sums givesThe left side is infinite, proving the recurrence criterion by return probabilities in the required direction:

Let $N$ be the number of visits to the server made by one customer. Then $N$ has the geometric distribution with success parameter $\delta$, and its service periods $E_1,E_2,\dots$ are independent exponential random variables of rate $\mu$. For $s\ge 0$, the Laplace transform of the total service time $T=E_1+\cdots +E_N$ isThus

At each service completion, a successful departure reduces the queue length by one and occurs at rate $\delta \mu$ while the queue is nonempty; feedback completions leave its length unchanged. The queue-length process is therefore the birth-death process of an ordinary $M/M/1$ queue with service rate $\delta \mu$. It is positive recurrent exactly when $\lambda <\delta \mu$, and then, with $\rho =\lambda /(\delta \mu )$,

The distribution is the geometric distribution on $\{1,2,\dots \}$ with success parameter $q=e^{-\lambda t}$. Its expected value is thereforeEquivalently, multiplying the master equation by $n$ and summing gives $m^{\prime }(t)=\lambda m(t)$ with $m(0)=1$.

Consider an occurrence counted by $G_m$. Before the next counted occurrence, the exploration must first take a downward step of the simple symmetric random walk, which has probability $1/2$, and then choose the decrement $-1$ among the three equally likely values of $\xi$, which has probability $1/3$. Thus it terminates the visits to the current record value with probabilityThe Strong Markov property at successive counted occurrences makes these trials independent. Therefore $G_m$ has the geometric distribution on $\{1,2,\dots \}$ with parameter $1/6$, andfor every $j\ge 1$.

For the geometric distribution on $\{1,2,\dots \}$,Summing the geometric series,

When $r$ red marbles remain, the next draw reduces their number with probability $r/n$. The waiting time $W_r$ for that reduction has a geometric distribution on $\{1,2,\dots \}$ and thereforeThe successive waiting times are independent, andUsing the product rule for probability-generating functions,