Write and let be the triangle count in a binomial random graph. For every three-element set of vertices, let be the indicator random variable that its three edges are present. Then
For two distinct triples , their indicator random variables are independent random variables unless they share an edge. Sharing just one vertex still leaves the sets of relevant edges disjoint. If they share an edge, their union has five edges, and therefore
There are unordered pairs of distinct triangles in a graph sharing an edge: choose that edge, and then choose their two additional vertices. The variance of a sum consequently gives the exact formula
For sufficiently large , the hypothesis ensures , so . Dropping negative terms and simplifying the binomial coefficients,
Here as well. The event implies . Applying the Chebyshev inequality from part (i) gives the requested conclusion:
Thus the triangle count is concentrated around its expectation throughout this range of the binomial random graph.
The autocovariance vanishes beyond lag . For an ordinary consecutive sum, variance of a sum gives
The last sum is finite. For , . Counting all coefficient pairs gives
For the odd-indexed sample the lag- autocovariance is , so the same finite-sum argument gives . Only coefficient pairs of the same parity contribute. If and , the odd-subsample limit is
This is the odd-subsample long-run variance of a moving average. Equivalently it is in the cycles convention. Under the printed invertibility assumption and positive noise variance, the polynomial is nonzero at both and , so both limits are positive. The same formulas also hold without invertibility, when cancellations can make a limit zero.
Let be the indicator random variable of . Then , so linearity of expectation gives
Using variance of a sum and
we obtain
For the circular array, let indicate that bulbs and are both on, with indices read modulo . Then . Non-neighbouring indicators are independent, while
There are individual terms and ordered neighbouring pairs in the double covariance sum, so
The event is exactly . If , Markov inequality gives
If , then implies . By Chebyshev inequality,
Therefore in the second regime.