Suppose an unknown has prior distribution and its conditional observation law has jointly measurable Radon-Nikodym derivative relative to a fixed observation law . If for -almost every pair, thendefines the posterior distribution for almost every observation. Indeed, for almost every , so Tonelli theorem gives . Hence is finite almost everywhere, and positivity of and Fubini's theorem give almost everywhere. The data law is , and integration of the proposed posterior against this data law recovers the joint law. This proves the conditional distribution property and also shows that the data law is an equivalent probability measure to .
Binomial-market probability density 2026-10-14
With independent up moves of physical probability and risk-neutral probability , the Radon-Nikodym derivative on the first periods is the displayed likelihood ratio, where counts up moves. Its conditional one-step multiplier has physical expectation one, so is a positive mean-one martingale. The terminal state-price density is for deterministic bank-account value .
Bounded Koopman operator criterion Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-11-05
For a nonsingular transformation of a probability space, let be its Radon-Nikodym derivative. The Koopman operator extends to a bounded operator on exactly when , and thenIndeed, change of variables gives . Conversely, if the squared operator norm is at most , test to obtain for every measurable . The sets must therefore be null, proving almost everywhere and equality of the optimal constants. Nonsingularity supplies a well-defined composition on equivalence classes, while the essential bound supplies the norm estimate.
Change of measure Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05
A change of measure replaces a positive measure by a positive measure described by a nonnegative Radon-Nikodym derivative . For a nonnegative measurable function , or for a function that is integrable with respect to ,Thus the integration weight changes while the underlying measurable space stays fixed. A density representation requires absolute continuity of measures ; the Radon-Nikodym theorem provides such a density under its hypotheses.
On , let assign mass to each point and let assign masses . Then and , soFor probability measures, the identity becomes and . It underlies likelihood ratios and importance sampling; strict positivity -almost everywhere makes the two probability measures equivalent.
Let be a martingale with and let on a finite horizon. Its restriction to has Radon-Nikodym derivative . If is Q-integrable and , then for every ,Also is P-integrable because . The defining uniqueness of conditional expectation gives the displayed formula. In particular, if is a P-martingale and is Q-integrable, conditioning first at an intermediate time proves is a Q-martingale.
Density process 2026-10-06
For a Radon-Nikodym derivative with , its conditional-expectation process is a nonnegative martingale. If almost surely, it defines an equivalent probability measure. A stochastic exponential satisfying the Novikov condition is a common positive density process.
Density ratio 2026-10-06
A density ratio compares two probability density functions relative to the same underlying measure. More generally it is a Radon-Nikodym derivative when one probability measure has absolute continuity of measures with respect to the other.
Dominated martingale measure 2026-10-14
For discounted one-period asset gains , a dominated martingale measure is a probability measure absolutely continuous with respect to the physical probability measure , under which the gains have zero expectation. Its Radon-Nikodym derivative satisfies , and . An equivalent martingale measure additionally has almost surely. Absolute continuity permits some positive-probability physical states to receive zero pricing probability; equivalence does not.
Exponential tilting Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05
exponential tilting reweights a probability law in favour of larger or smaller values. Let be finite at the chosen parameter. Define the tilted law by its Radon-Nikodym derivativeIts total mass is one by construction. Positive favours larger , while negative favours smaller ; it changes probabilities without creating values outside the original support.
For in the interior of the finite moment-generating-function domain, differentiation under the integral givesThe interior-domain condition supplies the integrable exponential bounds needed for these derivatives. Endpoint tilts can exist without a finite tilted mean, so existence of a normalized tilt alone is insufficient for the mean formula.
For a Bernoulli distribution with success probability , the tilted success probability is : tilting adds to its log odds. A Normal distribution tilts to by completing the square. These calculations explain why exponential tilting is useful for making a rare Sample mean typical while retaining an explicit Likelihood ratio.
Girsanov density for a stopped Bessel process Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
For reference Brownian motion , stopped at with , this expression is the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the stopped Bessel process law of dimension . The bounded stopped drift verifies the Novikov condition. The comparison laws must have the same initial value and the same stopping rule.
Hahn decomposition 2026-10-31
A Hahn decomposition of a signed measure partitions its space into measurable sets such that every measurable subset of has nonnegative measure and every measurable subset of has nonpositive measure. For finite total variation measure, set and choose a -null set maximizing : a countable union of approximating null sets attains the supremum. If some subset of its complement has negative signed mass, successively remove disjoint subsets with positive mass at least half the supremum still available. Their masses tend to zero because their sum is bounded by total variation. The remainder has no positive-measure subset, has negative mass, and is -null, contradicting maximality after adjoining it to . On one has and on one has . Consequently , an explicit Radon-Nikodym derivative.
Intensity measure of a point process 2026-10-14
The intensity measure of a point process is its expected counting measure:It may take the value .[ref]
Lectures on the Poisson Process by Günter Last and others. Section 2.2, Definition 2.5, printed p. 12: intensity as the expected counting measure
Countable additivity follows by applying the monotone convergence theorem to the counts of finite unions of pairwise disjoint observation windows. If is locally finite and absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure, its Radon-Nikodym derivative is the intensity function of a point process :This is an expected number per unit volume, not a probability density function for a randomly selected point. For example, a single deterministic point has , a Dirac measure, and no Lebesgue measure density. The density representation requires its own assumption.[ref]Spatial Point Processes and their Applications. Section 2.1, Definitions 2.1-2.2, printed pp. 26-27: expected counts and intensity functions
For a bounded Borel set , , but local finiteness alone does not ensure that this expected value is finite. Conversely, implies almost surely, even when is unbounded. A constant finite intensity function of a point process on all of has infinite total intensity measure, although every bounded window has finite expected value.
Take Lebesgue decompositions relative to a fixed finite positive measure . The finite union of null supports of their singular components is still -null. On each original measure equals its singular component; on it equals its absolutely continuous component. Restriction commutes with the partition formula defining the finite supremum of positive measures. Thus the supremum restricts to on and to off . The latter is absolutely continuous with respect to because it is bounded by the sum of the absolutely continuous components. Uniqueness of the Lebesgue decomposition proves the displayed identities, and the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the absolutely continuous component is the pointwise maximum of the individual derivatives.
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck likelihood relative to Wiener measure Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-10-25
On each finite horizon the displayed Radon-Nikodym derivative changes Wiener measure into the law of . Stop at coordinate magnitude n so the Novikov condition applies. Under each stopped tilted measure the coordinate solves the drifted equation, and the Gronwall inequality with the Doob L2 maximal inequality bounds its maximal second moment uniformly in n. The probability of reaching n therefore tends to zero; this proves that the unstopped density has expectation one. No unrestricted large-time Novikov estimate is needed.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 24 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Separate into a diffusion generator and the constant killing term . The appropriate stochastic differential equation and its explicit geometric Brownian motion solution areThe second-order term in the Itô formula cancels the drift of when ; if , the solution stays zero.
Fix a terminal time . Apply the Itô formula to for . Its drift isAfter localization this is a local martingale, and it is bounded because is bounded. It is therefore a true martingale. Taking expectations at its endpoints gives the Feynman-Kac formula
For and , the change of variable in the normal density produces the killed geometric Brownian heat kernel with respect to Lebesgue measure:For , an equivalent form isIn particular,The apparent missing in this last expression is absorbed into the completed square, together with the killing factor; it is not a transcription error. The total mass is , as expected for killing at rate . At the fundamental kernel is instead the measure ; it has no Radon-Nikodym derivative with respect to Lebesgue measure. Thus . At the kernel is , and continuity of bounded gives the initial condition. This also specifies the fundamental solution at the degenerate point omitted by a density-only formula.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 29 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Take bank-account values with , and let the stock multiply independently by or at each step, where . Under the physical probability measure , the up probability is ; the filtration records the successive moves. These assumptions specify the standard binomial market. If lies outside the strict interval , a long or short stock position financed through the bank account gives an arbitrage.
The risk-neutral probability in a binomial market is fixed by , givingFor successor claim values at a node with current stock price , solve the two replication equations. The current stock holding and current cash value areThe cost of this replicating portfolio in a binomial market isApply this backward option pricing recursion from any terminal contingent claim , including claims depending on the whole sequence of moves. It constructs a self-financing portfolio and proves market completeness by induction on the remaining number of periods. Taking successive conditional expectations under the measure with independent up probability gives the unique risk-neutral pricing valueAny other price would give an arbitrage by buying the cheaper of the claim and its replica and selling the dearer.
If is the number of up moves, a particular path has probabilities under and under . Therefore the binomial-market probability density, namely the Radon-Nikodym derivative, isThis last expression makes a function of the terminal stock price. Summing over paths gives , and strict positivity proves equivalence of the two probability measures.
For unrestricted terminal portfolio wealth , its initial replication cost is . Hence feasible wealth satisfies the state-price budget constraint . For the stated exponential utility, and . The binomial exponential-utility terminal wealth iswhereIt satisfies the budget, and its marginal utility is with . The concave supporting-tangent inequality givesTaking expectations under makes the last term zero by the budget. Strict concavity makes equality possible only when in every positive-probability state. The already constructed complete market supplies its replicating strategy, so this proves global optimality and uniqueness. The formula allows negative final wealth, as permitted by the unrestricted trading problem.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 6 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Saddlepoint approximation methods retain the nonquadratic shape of a distribution through its cumulant-generating function. Suppose are independent and identically distributed, is finite on an open interval containing zero, and . For an interior target mean , solve the saddlepoint equation . Introduce exponential tilting byUnder the tilted distribution the mean and variance are and . For the product sample the Radon-Nikodym derivative is . Consequently the exact density relation for the sample mean isA local central limit approximation to the tilted density at its own mean gives . HenceFor the sum , the equivalent expression is , with . Under the usual smooth nonlattice density conditions this approximation has relative error of order for a fixed interior target. In the tilted Edgeworth expansion the order odd term vanishes at the mean. The exponent retains the Legendre-transform rate , rather than a quadratic Taylor approximation to that rate, explaining the useful tail and skewness behavior. Normalization is not automatic, and accuracy statements need their regularity and range restrictions.
For a normal distribution, and . Substitution recovers exactly the normal density of the sample mean. For an exponential distribution of rate , , and . The approximation becomesIt has exactly the gamma density shape. Replacing its leading constant by the exact normalizing constant makes it exact, illustrating why exactness of shape and exactness of the unnormalized approximation are separate questions.
For a vector sample mean, tilt by , solve , and use the local multivariate normal density at the tilted mean. This givesJoint and marginal saddlepoint densities can also be divided to approximate conditional densities, for example after conditioning on a nuisance sufficient statistic. The p* approximation uses likelihood and fitted-information coordinates to obtain a closely related approximation to a maximum-likelihood estimator's density, usually conditional on an ancillary statistic.
Tail probabilities need a corresponding integration approximation. The Lugannani-Rice saddlepoint tail approximation usesand givesHere are the standard normal distribution functions. The upper-tail correction has the opposite sign: . Inverting a cumulative distribution function introduces a pole in addition to the density's saddlepoint; treating both supplies the correction term, which is why simply integrating a normal approximation at the untilted mean is less accurate. At the apparent singularities cancel. With and , expansions give and , so . For the normal distribution the correction is zero everywhere.
These methods require care for lattice distributions, where summation and lattice corrections replace the density inversion, and near boundaries or singular covariance matrices. A distribution with no moment-generating function in a neighborhood of zero does not satisfy the starting assumptions. A successful saddlepoint approximation is therefore a structured refinement of regular asymptotic inference, not a formula guaranteed uniformly in every tail or for every model.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Normalize by a riskless bank account with , . For risky assets let be the vector of discounted gains, and let denote a discounted square-integrable contingent claim. An initial total capital and stock holding have discounted terminal portfolio wealth : the bank holding finances the initial purchase of the stocks. Thus the space of attainable claims isIt is finite-dimensional and hence closed. The market is complete market when every square-integrable claim is in this span; with finitely many assets this is also equivalent to replication of every bounded claim.
A dominated martingale measure is a probability measure with and , with the gains integrable under . Its Radon-Nikodym derivative satisfies , and . An equivalent martingale measure has almost surely. A signed martingale measure obeys the same normalization and pricing equations without requiring nonnegativity. The distinction matters for quadratic hedging. For the completeness assertion use the usual no-arbitrage hypothesis, expressed here by existence of an equivalent martingale measure .
The unrestricted one-period quadratic hedge minimizesPut , and . Remove redundant gains so that is invertible. Differentiating in gives . The remaining squared error isThereforeThe residual is orthogonal in to and every gain, making the fitted claim the orthogonal projection onto a finite-dimensional subspace onto . Its minimum mean-square error is , and it vanishes exactly when is attainable. If initial capital is fixed instead, the normal equation isThis separates hedging with prescribed capital from simultaneous optimization of capital and risky holdings.
The minimal martingale measure in a one-period market is characterized by leaving unchanged the expectation of every centered square-integrable orthogonal to the martingale part . For square-integrable pricing densities this forces into the span of : the orthogonal complement consists exactly of those . The pricing equation then determinesIndeed and . For every such orthogonal , . Conversely a normalized density preserving all these must have the displayed form, since its coefficients must satisfy . The least-squares initial capital is consequently .
For any other square-integrable signed pricing density , put . Both densities price and all gains, so is orthogonal to their span, including . HenceEquality holds only when . Densities with infinite second moment cannot improve this finite minimum. This proves the requested minimum over dominated martingale measures whenever , and over all square-integrable signed martingale measures without that extra condition. If , it is also an equivalent martingale measure.
Absence of arbitrage alone does not guarantee that the minimal density is a probability density. For a concrete example, let a single discounted gain take values with probabilities . Then , and . Nevertheless pricing probabilities are strictly positive and give mean gain zero, so an equivalent martingale measure exists. This is negative minimal density in an arbitrage-free one-period market. If the term martingale measure is reserved for probabilities, the printed minimum assertion needs the extra nonnegativity hypothesis; otherwise it is the signed minimum-norm assertion just proved. Minimizing over the nonnegative pricing densities instead is a different constrained projection problem.
Finally, prove completeness and uniqueness of dominated martingale measures. If the market is complete market, every event indicator can be replicated. Under any dominated martingale measure, its expectation equals its initial discounted cost. Consequently any two such measures agree on every event and are equal; existence is supplied by .
Conversely suppose has dimension and is a proper subspace of the whole payoff space. Choose disjoint events of positive probability. Such events exist whenever has dimension greater than : otherwise the space has at most atoms and dimension at most . Let be a basis of . The vectorsare linearly dependent. Choose coefficients , not all zero, whose linear combination is zero, and set . It is bounded, not almost surely zero under , and satisfies for every , in particular for . For defineThese densities are strictly positive, normalized, have zero gain means, and are different. Thus incompleteness contradicts uniqueness, provingThe existence hypothesis cannot be discarded: with three positive-probability states and gain , the sole dominated martingale probability concentrates on , yet the two-dimensional attainable space does not span all three states. That market permits arbitrage.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Take a riskless gross return per period and a stock whose independent multiplicative moves are and , with physical up probability . Assume . With up moves by date ,A self-financing portfolio chooses each stock holding from information available before the next move, and invests the remainder in the bank account. At any node the two possible next payoffs can be matched by two holdings because . Backward induction therefore makes the binomial market complete.
The unique risk-neutral probability of an up move is determined by the discounted-stock martingale equation:The risk-neutral measure assigns product probabilities to the successive moves. A path with up moves has physical probability and pricing probability . Its Radon-Nikodym derivative is thereforeSince , eliminate to obtain the requested terminal-price expression:The pricing density depends only on the terminal stock price even though different paths to that price have different intermediate histories.
For , a nonnegative terminal wealth with initial cost satisfiesThe utility function has derivative . Put . Its first-order condition makes proportional to , so . Choosing to satisfy the pricing budget constraint gives the binomial power-utility terminal wealthAll states have positive probability and the state space is finite, so this payoff is positive, integrable and attainable. The normalizing constant is explicit: independence givesCombining these two formulas with the terminal-price expression for gives entirely as a function of .
To prove global optimality, strict concavity gives . Because , the expectation of the right side is zero for any other payoff satisfying the same pricing budget constraint. Equality requires almost surely. Backward replication supplies its self-financing strategy, so this static optimum is attainable by trading. If and terminal wealth must be nonnegative, the only feasible terminal wealth is zero. For , the density is one and the optimizer is the riskless wealth .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 32 2 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For Borel sets , multiply the finite-time Radon-Nikodym derivative into the product law of the increments:The factorization, extended from rectangles to the product sigma-algebra, proves independence and identical distributions. Their common law is the exponential tiltingFor , is bounded on , while on . Choosing a small two-sided neighborhood of still contained in gives an integrable dominating function for the derivative. Differentiation under the integral sign then yieldsThe mean under one-sided exponential tilting needs an endpoint qualification. At , finiteness of positive exponential moments makes integrable, but gives no integrability of . The formula holds with the right derivative and the extended mean . To see this, apply monotone convergence to and dominated convergence to as . A finite mean at zero is not guaranteed by the printed hypotheses: , , has finite for every but .