A stable equilibrium M-M-s queue has a Poisson process of departures with the same rate as its input. Its present population is also independent of past departures, a component of quasireversibility. The birth-death process satisfies detailed balance; reversed upward jumps have a constant arrival rate, so they are generated by an independent Poisson process.
Ehrenfest model 2026-10-31
A model of random exchange between two containers, associated with Paul Ehrenfest and Tatyana Afanasyeva-Ehrenfest. In the discrete-time Ehrenfest urn model, choose one of balls uniformly at each step and change its container. The count in the first container decreases with probability and increases with probability . A continuous-time version lets each particle change container independently at rate , giving birth-death process transition rates and . Its sequence of visited states is the discrete urn Markov chain. Stopping when one container becomes empty produces an absorbing variant, rather than changing the transition rule of the unstopped model.
Independent worm acquisition at rate and loss at rate produce a birth-death process for within-host parasite burden. Summing its forward equations against gives . At constant exposure, detailed balance yields a Poisson distribution with mean . Heterogeneous acquisition rates change the pooled burden distribution even when each individual host follows this model.
M-M-1 queue with state-dependent admission Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
If potential arrivals form a Poisson process of rate and an arrival seeing customers joins with probability , the queue length is a birth-death process with birth rate and death rate for . Its stationary ratios, when normalizable, are
Consider an M/M/1 queue with an exogenous Poisson process of arrivals of rate , one server, unlimited waiting space, first come first served service, and independent and identically distributed service times with an exponential distribution of rate , independent of arrivals. There is no blocking or abandonment, so offered rate and admitted queue throughput coincide: . The memoryless property makes the queue population a birth-death process. For , the stationary distribution of an M-M-1 queue is
This is a geometric distribution on the nonnegative integers. Its mean, together with Little's law, gives
Here count the whole system, and count only waiting. These distinctions and formulas are derived in MIT 2.854, M/M/1 Queue notes, pages 1-2.
Take customers per hour and customers per hour. The mean service time is hour, or 12 minutes, and the server utilization is . Computing each quantity explicitly,
Thus Little's law checks both boundaries: and . The mean number in service is , rather than one, because the server is idle 20 percent of the time. By PASTA, an arriving customer sees four customers already in the system on average. Under first come first served, the memoryless property gives mean residual service time for the customer in service; clearing those four customers takes hour on average, independently confirming the mean queueing delay.
Holding per hour fixed, increasing arrivals from to per hour raises server utilization from to , but doubles mean customer sojourn time from one to two hours. At per hour, server utilization is , , hours, , and hours. Both mean population and mean duration diverge as approaches from below. The formula describes an explosive congestion penalty near capacity even though all arrivals still eventually receive service at every fixed subcritical rate. At or above capacity there is no stationary distribution for this unlimited M/M/1 queue, so these finite stationary formulas no longer apply.
Figure 1.
M/M/1 population and delay grow sharply as server utilization approaches one
. Details.
The inverse dependence of mean customer sojourn time on spare capacity, , makes server utilization a poor standalone measure of service quality. Adding capacity at a nearly saturated M/M/1 queue can sharply reduce queueing delay. Stanley B. Gershwin develops this capacity interpretation in Markov Processes and Queues, MIT 2.854, 2016, slides 71-72.
M/M/∞ queue 2026-10-14
An queue has Poisson arrivals of rate , independent exponential service times of rate , and infinitely many servers. Its occupancy is a birth-death process with birth rate and death rate in state .
M-M-s-K queue Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An queue has arrivals forming a Poisson process of rate , servers with independent service times having an exponential distribution of rate , and total system capacity . Its occupancy is the finite birth-death process on with
A microparasite typically multiplies within an infected host on a much shorter time scale than between-host transmission. A useful first model classifies hosts by infection status. A macroparasite, such as an adult parasitic worm, instead requires a count of parasites per host: two infected hosts can carry very different within-host parasite burdens. These are modelling distinctions rather than a rule determined only by an organism's physical size.
For a microparasite with no lasting immunity, a homogeneous SIS model is
The basic reproduction number is , and the prevalence describes the infected-host fraction. A SIR model adds an immune class, and a SEIR model adds a latent class. Contact structure, age, susceptibility, recovery rate and infectiousness can require several such classes. Then a next-generation matrix or operator, rather than a single averaged contact rate, sets the invasion threshold. Stochastic epidemic models are relevant to early extinction and finite populations; network or spatial models represent nonuniform contact opportunities.
For a simple macroparasite burden model, let be the fraction of hosts carrying adult worms. Assume acquisitions at rate , independent adult-worm losses at rate , and a number of infective stages in a well-mixed environmental reservoir. The immigration-death worm-burden model has
This birth-death process needs the burden distribution or its probability generating function, not just an infected/not-infected partition. Its mean satisfies . With host number fixed and each adult producing infective stages at rate , one possible environmental closure is
For this asexual, unsaturated transmission approximation, one worm's basic reproduction number is . Growth above the invasion threshold requires additional density regulation if a finite endemic burden is sought. Sex-dependent mating would change this closure.
With constant external exposure , the equilibrium burden follows a Poisson distribution with mean , giving infected-host prevalence . If exposure rates vary across hosts as a gamma distribution, the Poisson-gamma mixture gives a negative binomial distribution with mean and aggregation parameter :
The same mean burden can therefore coexist with very different prevalence and highly infected subgroups. Aggregation of macroparasite burdens affects treatment coverage, burden-dependent host mortality, immunity and parasite fecundity. For sexually reproducing worms, hosts need both sexes for fertile output; a mean alone may not determine it. With independent equally likely sexes and Poisson burden, the probability of both sexes is , illustrating mating-limited macroparasite transmission and its low-burden bottleneck.
Both microparasite and macroparasite models need heterogeneous exposure and host responses. The special extra difficulty for macroparasites is translating a distributed worm burden, and possibly worm sex or developmental stage, into transmission and host harm. Conversely, complicated within-host microparasite processes can also require more than a binary host state when the simple fast-within-host approximation fails.
Take Poisson process arrivals of rate , independent holding times with the exponential distribution of parameter , unit resource requirement per call, no waiting room, and integer capacity . The occupancy is a birth-death process on with birth rate below and death rate at occupancy . Writing for offered traffic, detailed balance for a continuous-time Markov chain gives
An arrival is lost exactly in state , so Poisson arrivals see time averages proves the Erlang loss formula
This derivation assumes exponential holding times; the insensitivity of loss networks extends the same formula to independent general holding times with the same mean. For completeness, ; for , set .
A loss network with fixed routing has finitely many resources, capacities , and call types indexed by nonempty subsets of resources. A call of type uses one unit of every resource in for its entire holding time and is accepted only if all are available. Let be the link-route incidence matrix and the type's offered traffic, arrival rate times mean holding time. Different types have independent Poisson processes and independent holding times.
In the reduced-load approximation, availability at distinct resources is treated as independent, and screening at the resources other than is modeled as independent Poisson thinning. The load offered to after that screening is
Applying the Erlang loss formula to this isolated-resource load gives the Erlang fixed point approximation, . These equations are an approximation because simultaneous admission induces dependence between resource occupancies, and the screened arrival process need not actually be Poisson.
Here is a proof of existence and uniqueness for positive capacities. Write . Its truncated-Poisson mean is the carried load of an Erlang loss resource,
For , differentiating its stationary probabilities gives
The variance is positive and because every state has positive probability. Moreover increases continuously from zero to one, and increases from zero to . Thus has a continuous inverse on .
Use acceptance coordinates and define
Here is strictly increasing, continuous, and tends to as . The convex potential for the Erlang fixed point is
Each exponential term is convex, and each integral is a strictly convex function of its coordinate because its derivative is strictly increasing. Hence is strictly convex on the nonnegative orthant. It is also a coercive function: for sufficiently large , , so each integral tends at least linearly to infinity. Therefore attains a unique minimum .
Its partial derivative is
At an interior minimum this derivative is zero. Since , this is exactly . At a boundary coordinate , the one-sided minimizing condition is , whereas the displayed derivative is . Thus and there as well. Conversely every solution of the Erlang fixed point approximation has these derivative conditions and hence minimizes the convex potential. No solution has at positive capacity, since every is finite and for finite . The coordinates therefore give a bijection between solutions and minima, proving
If a capacity is zero, its blocking probability is forced to one. Routes using it contribute zero reduced load to every other resource. Delete those routes and the zero-capacity resources and apply the proof to the remaining network; unused positive-capacity resources have blocking probability zero. This establishes existence and uniqueness also with zero capacities, allowing precisely at those resources.
There is now no separate rate- clockwise transition. The only transitions are
Both preserve modulo . The initial state therefore selects the closed communicating class , on which . The population is a birth-death process with birth rate and death rate .
Define and for . The detailed balance for a birth-death process weights are
Writing with , the product condition gives . Summing the resulting geometric series yields
This is also the law in part (b) conditioned on : the ratio of its weights at consecutive accessible populations is . The stability condition is , which uses the product of the periodic birth rates; it does not require for every .
For a single resource, assume unit-capacity calls arrive as a Poisson process of rate , holding times have independent exponential distributions with mean , and a call is rejected when all units are occupied. Let . Its occupancy is a birth-death process on , with birth rate below capacity and death rate in state . Detailed balance for a birth-death process gives
By Poisson arrivals see time averages, the Erlang loss formula is
This derivation assumes exponential holding times; the standard insensitivity result extends the same formula to independent holding times of the same mean, but is not needed here.
A loss network with fixed routing has finitely many resources , capacities , and call types with a fixed nonempty set of resources. Type has Poisson arrivals of rate , independent holding times of mean , and offered load . It is accepted only if every resource on its route has a free unit, and otherwise is lost. In the displayed equations use the unit-incidence matrix for and zero otherwise. The equations concern this unit-demand model, rather than arbitrary multi-unit requirements.
The Erlang fixed point approximation replaces the correlated resource availabilities by independent ones. A type- call survives blocking at resources other than with approximate probability . Treating this filtering as Poisson thinning gives the reduced offered load
Apply the single-resource formula to obtain . Independence and Poisson thinning here are approximations; no such approximation is claimed for the exact network's joint stationary distribution.
Assume first . The right side is a continuous map from into itself, so the Brouwer fixed-point theorem gives existence. To prove uniqueness, let be the carried load of an Erlang loss resource, also the mean of the truncated Poisson occupancy. Differentiation yields
Thus increases continuously from zero to one and increases from zero to .
Write , and define and , with . Each is continuous and strictly increasing. A fixed point satisfies
These are precisely the stationary equations for the convex potential for the Erlang fixed point
The first term is convex; the second is strictly convex because each strictly increases. Hence is strictly convex. Its gradient cannot vanish at two distinct points: the difference of gradients dotted with the difference of points is strictly positive, with a positive contribution from every changed coordinate in the integral term. This also covers boundary coordinates , using the right derivative there. Every fixed point has , since its offered load is finite, so the change of variables is valid. There is exactly one fixed point. If a capacity is zero, its blocking probability is one; delete it and all routes using it before applying the argument to the remaining positive capacities. Unused resources have blocking probability zero.
First consider an M-M-K queue with servers, arrival rate , and service rate at each server. Assume so that a stationary distribution exists. Its population is a birth-death process with rates and . The equilibrium probabilities satisfy detailed balance
Thus the population process is a reversible Markov chain. In its time reversal of a continuous-time Markov chain, forward departures become upward jumps whose rate is the constant , independent of the state. They can be generated by a rate- Poisson process independent of the initial reversed state. Reversing time preserves the Poisson process law, proving the equilibrium departure process is Poisson with rate , the Burke theorem for a multi-server queue.
The same argument gives the departure component of quasireversibility needed for the tandem calculation: the present upstream population is independent of its entire past departure process. Indeed, these departures become future arrivals in the reversed chain, independent of its initial population. First check this on finite time windows, then extend to the full past. A Poisson output alone, without this independence, would not justify multiplying queue-empty probabilities.
Now let , where denotes the mean service time at passport control, so the service rate at each of its two servers is . The stationary distribution of the M-M-s queue with has normalizing sum
Hence its empty probability is . Its output feeds a stable M/D/1 queue with rate and deterministic service time . In a stationary work-conserving single-server queue, the busy fraction is the rate of completed work, , so the empty probability is .
The downstream stationary workload is a causal function of past upstream departures. For example, it is the limit of workloads constructed from arrivals in increasingly long finite past intervals; stability makes this stationary construction well defined. The backward independence just proved therefore makes the two present queue populations independent. Consequently
With walking time , the downstream arrival stream is the upstream departure stream shifted by . Its present workload depends only on departures up to time . The number walking at time zero is the number of departures in , which has Poisson distribution of mean and is independent of the earlier departures. The upstream present population is independent of both parts of its past departure stream. Thus the three empty events factor, giving
The factor is the empty probability of the deterministic-travel infinite-server stage. Both printed stability inequalities ensure the stationary calculations apply.
For the Erlang loss formula, assume a Poisson process of arrivals with rate , independent holding times with exponential distribution of mean , unit capacity usage per accepted call, and rejection without waiting when all units are occupied. Here is a positive integer and the offered load is . The call population on is a birth-death process; detailed balance gives
By Poisson arrivals see time averages, the fraction of arrivals rejected is the time probability of full occupancy. Therefore
The paper's is the offered load, rather than necessarily an arrival rate. Exponential holding times suffice for this derivation; no unproved insensitivity of loss networks assumption is needed.
A loss network with fixed routing has capacities , call types , and a link-route incidence matrix with exactly when a type- call requires link . An accepted call holds one unit on every link of its route for its holding time; if any required link is full, the call is rejected everywhere. Take independent Poisson processes of calls, independent holding times, and route offered loads . For the finite-variable formulation below, take ; a zero-capacity link and all routes using it may be removed first.
The Erlang fixed point approximation treats blocking at different links as independent and thins the traffic offered to link by acceptance at the other links. Its reduced offered load is
The equality uses : only routes with contribute. Treating this reduced stream as Poisson leads to . Independence and Poisson thinning here are the approximation, not exact properties of a general loss network.
To construct the convex potential for the Erlang fixed point, write and , the carried load of an Erlang loss resource, equivalently the mean occupancy in the single-link stationary distribution. Differentiating its finite sums gives, for ,
The variance is positive because the finite occupancy law is nondegenerate for . Furthermore maps increasingly onto , while increases from zero to . Set
In particular , is continuous and strictly increasing, and as .
For
the first sum is convex, and each integrated strictly increasing function is strictly convex. Thus is a strictly convex function on . Since tends to a positive limit on every coordinate, is a coercive function there; it has a unique minimizer. Its coordinate derivative is
The Erlang fixed point equation is exactly . For an unused link, and the optimum is ; for a used link with positive offered load, the derivative at zero is negative and the optimum is positive. Hence every fixed point gives the unique minimizer, and the minimizer gives a fixed point. The Erlang fixed point is unique under these fixed-routing assumptions.
A convergent cyclic substitution for the Erlang fixed point updates one coordinate at a time, repeatedly cycling through all links:
Always use the most recently available values of the other coordinates. Start, for example, with . In coordinates this is exact coordinate descent for : with other coordinates fixed, the displayed update is the unique coordinate minimizer.
Here is a convergence proof. All iterates stay in the initial compact sublevel set of the coercive function , and their potential values decrease to a limit. Each single-coordinate update is continuous, since its reduced load is continuous and finite and . Thus a whole-sweep map is continuous. If a full-sweep subsequence converges to , continuity gives , because both consecutive potential values converge to the same limit. Strict coordinate convexity means equality can occur only when no coordinate changes during that sweep. Thus minimizes every coordinate, satisfies the nonnegative-orthant first-order conditions, and is the unique global minimizer of . Every subsequential limit is therefore the same point, proving convergence of the full-sweep iterates and, by continuity of the updates, all intermediate iterates. This argument applies to sequential substitution; it does not assume simultaneous updates converge.
For the M-M-1 queue with Bernoulli feedback, assume . The number of service visits before departure is geometric on , with probabilities , independent of the independent exponential visit lengths. The transform of the total time actually being served is
Thus
This excludes the waiting between visits. A feedback completion changes the customer's position but not the number in the system. By exponential memoryless property, the latter process has births of rate and true deaths of rate while nonempty; unsuccessful completions are self-events. It is therefore an M/M/1 number process with effective service rate , giving
For positive equality is null recurrent, larger arrival rate is unstable, and admits no departure-based equilibrium.
To prove the output claim, state the relevant time reversal of a continuous-time Markov chain theorem: an equilibrium continuous-time chain satisfying detailed balance has the same reversed path law. In this reversible birth-death process, final departures are precisely downward jumps; time reversal turns them into upward jumps. Upward jumps are supplied by a state-independent Poisson clock of rate , so their process is Poisson. Hence the stationary final-departure process is Poisson of rate . This is the output conclusion of Burke theorem for the effective number process; it does not say the process of all service completions has that rate.
Put , the total capacity. The customer count is an M-M-s-K queue, hence a birth-death process on . Its nonzero transition rates are
The first rate is zero at because an arrival finding the shop full is rejected. The second rate is the number of busy servers times the individual service rate.
Write . The detailed balance for a birth-death process recursion is
Therefore
where
This is the stationary distribution of an M-M-s-K queue.
The state space is finite, and every state communicates with every other through successive births and deaths because . The chain is therefore an irreducible Markov chain, so its invariant distribution is unique. Finally the adjacent-state identities
are detailed balance, while all nonadjacent rates vanish in both directions. Part a now shows that the queue is reversible in equilibrium.
Let be the number of visits to the server made by one customer. Then has the geometric distribution with success parameter , and its service periods are independent exponential random variables of rate . For , the Laplace transform of the total service time is
Thus
At each service completion, a successful departure reduces the queue length by one and occurs at rate while the queue is nonempty; feedback completions leave its length unchanged. The queue-length process is therefore the birth-death process of an ordinary queue with service rate . It is positive recurrent exactly when , and then, with ,
An M/M/1 queue has Poisson process arrivals of rate , independent exponential service times of rate , and one server. The two letters indicate the memoryless property of the interarrival and service-time distributions. Its queue length is a birth-death process with birth rate and death rate away from zero. When , its normalized stationary distribution is
the powers quoted in the question form the corresponding unnormalized invariant measure.
The queue length is a birth-death process with birth rate in state and death rate . Its reversible weights satisfy
For , the factor makes their sum finite for every . For , the tail is geometric with ratio , so a stationary distribution exists exactly when .
The chain is an irreducible birth-death process. The detailed balance equations are
so . Normalization gives the stationary distribution
An irreducible countable-state Markov chain that possesses a stationary probability distribution is positive recurrent. Hence is positive recurrent.
The queue length is an M/M/1 queue and hence a birth-death process with birth rate and death rate away from zero. The detailed-balance equations are
Writing , they give . Since , this measure is summable and normalization yields
The existence of this invariant probability distribution for the irreducible nonexplosive chain proves positive recurrence.