Assume , or use nonnegative with extended expectations. Let and . For , the discrete conditional expectation is . Therefore Fubini's theorem, or Tonelli theorem in the nonnegative case, gives the tower property of conditional expectation:
Values of a conditional expectation on zero-probability conditioning events do not affect the sum. An unrestricted signed whose expectation is undefined is outside this assertion.
Write . The waiting time for two increments larger than dominates for and has mean , so is finite. Conditioning on the first increment, one step is always consumed; if that increment is below , the remaining independent sequence has the original law. Thus first-step analysis and the tower property of conditional expectation give
This first makes continuous and then gives , with . Hence the uniform-sum crossing time below one has
An independent explanation uses the tail-sum formula: for , since this region is an -dimensional simplex inside the unit cube. Summing from gives . In particular the strict-crossing convention gives almost surely and .
Write the countable supports as and the marginal masses as . Independence gives joint mass . Assuming finite expected values, absolute integrability is justified by Tonelli theorem:
Consequently Fubini's theorem permits factorization of the signed sum, proving the expectation of a product of independent random variables:
The second claim holds as a general assertion with the additional hypothesis that the positive variables are integer-valued. For a nonnegative integer-valued , the pointwise identity and Tonelli theorem give the tail-sum formula
If each is integer-valued, their product is too. Apply this identity to each factor and to the product, then use independence:
Under the literal broader meaning of a discrete random variable, the second claim is false. Two independent constants are positive and discrete, but the left side is and the right side is . More generally the integer-indexed tail sum of a positive real-valued variable is , not . This is the integer-valued hypothesis in the tail-sum formula.
For , the exit time is at least one. Since , this event is independent of . The Tonelli theorem gives
Therefore the integrability of a stopped random-walk increment bound is
It is the survival event, not the exit-at- event, that is independent of the next increment. The selected exit increment need not have the same distribution or mean as .
For , the printed variable is undefined because the increment sequence starts at one. Either restrict this part to , or make the harmless additional convention . With that convention the conclusion also holds in the immediate-exit case. The integrability assertion needs this indexing qualification.
Use the coordinatewise partial order: means for every . An increasing event is upward closed: and imply .
Under the independent Bernoulli distribution product measure on these coordinates, the Harris-FKG inequality states
for increasing events . For , let be the cylinder of configurations agreeing with on . The disjoint occurrence of increasing events consists of configurations for which there exist disjoint with and . For increasing events, witnesses can be taken to prescribe only open coordinates. The BK inequality is
Positive association rewards simultaneous occurrence; the disjoint-witness requirement in the BK inequality gives a bound in the opposite direction. The inequalities also apply to different independent Bernoulli parameters in different coordinates.
Regard the boxes as sets of lattice graph vertices. Write , and put . On the event defining , choose an open self-avoiding walk from the origin to its first visit to . Let be its first visit to . Its initial segment witnesses . Its remaining segment ends at a point with
For , truncate this remaining segment on its first visit to . The two segments use disjoint edges, so they are disjoint witnesses. For , the second event is the sure event with empty witness. Thus the union bound, the BK inequality and translation invariance give
An unrestricted connection event can depend on infinitely many edges. Apply the finite-coordinate BK inequality first to connections confined to growing boxes and take increasing limits; each occurrence has a finite path witness. This justifies its use here. The estimate is the weighted BK boundary-splitting estimate.
By summing cluster indicators and using Tonelli theorem, the percolation susceptibility is
If , then . At all vanish, so any positive exponential rate works. Otherwise choose with . Iterating the weighted BK boundary-splitting estimate gives, for with ,
For , , so . To include the finitely many smaller indices without a prefactor, note that under finite susceptibility and
Therefore one may take
For this follows from , and for it follows from the iterated estimate. This proves exponential one-arm decay from finite susceptibility with exactly the requested unit prefactor.
First derive the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model. Before the first claim, capital rises deterministically. The first interarrival time has exponential distribution of rate , independently of the claim size. Conditioning on its time and size, and using the Markov property after that claim, gives
A claim larger than the capital available then causes immediate ruin and contributes zero. There is almost surely a first claim because .
Put . Changing variables yields
Since , this representation makes locally absolutely continuous, and differentiation gives, at least almost everywhere,
Integrate from to . The integrands are nonnegative, so Tonelli theorem permits interchange in the double integral. In particular
Subtracting this from , changing variables once more, and using the permitted boundary value gives
The constant is the zero-capital survival probability. Positive relative safety loading means , so it is positive. The convolution kernel is a multiple of the integrated tail distribution density and has total mass , making this a defective renewal equation.
For the individual portfolios define . Under the positive-loading convention of the question, . At zero capital, portfolio survives with probability . The independence of random variables of the entire portfolio processes makes their ultimate survival events independent. Consequently
The exponential form is not needed for this zero-capital probability under positive loading; only the claim mean enters. For completeness, the company description does not separately repeat positive loading for every portfolio. If nonpositive loadings are allowed, certain ruin with nonpositive loading and finite claim variance instead gives
Here the positive part sets a nonpositive factor to zero. To justify the additional case, observe capital at claim times: its independent increments are , with mean . A negative mean sends their partial sums to by the strong law of large numbers. At zero mean, these increments have finite nonzero variance. The central limit theorem gives for each fixed , so the probability of unboundedness below is at least . That event is unchanged by altering finitely many increments and hence is a tail event; the Kolmogorov zero-one law makes its probability one. Ruin therefore occurs almost surely also at zero loading.
For the merged claims, Poisson superposition of insurance portfolios gives total arrival rate . Each arrival is from portfolio with probability , independently of other arrival labels. Thus its claim-size mixture distribution has density
The weights sum to one, so this density integrates to one. An independent transform verification uses the aggregate for one accounting period. If , then its moment-generating function is
This is precisely a compound Poisson distribution with parameter and the displayed claim-size law. The transform identity can safely be read at ; positive arguments must be below the relevant poles.
Premium incomes and initial capitals add. Therefore the merged premium rate is , the merged initial capital is zero, and its mean claim size is
Its zero-capital survival probability is consequently
Under the question's positive-loading context this is a premium-weighted average of the individual survival probabilities, rather than their product. If arbitrary individual loadings are admitted, recompute the loading of the merged portfolio; its finite-variance mixture law gives the complete formula
An individually nonpositive loading does not force merged ruin when aggregate premiums still exceed aggregate expected claims. The survival probability under risk pooling is at least their product because a product of numbers in is at most each factor. Pooling allows one portfolio's surplus to cover another's deficit, so merged survival does not require every original portfolio to remain solvent separately.
For independent and identically distributed random variables sampled from a probability density function , a kernel density estimator with kernel for density estimation and smoothing bandwidth is
The usual kernel for density estimation is nonnegative; finite makes the integrated variance finite. The mean integrated squared error and its bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error are
The interchange is justified by the Tonelli theorem.
For the exponential distribution and the specified unit-width uniform kernel, put . The expected value is . Intersecting this interval with the positive half-line gives
On the true probability density function vanishes, whereas
Here for . This leakage across the support boundary proves the integrated squared bias from a density jump:
In particular, and suffice. The phenomenon differs from a smooth interior bias of a kernel density estimator: the order-one boundary error persists over a region of width proportional to .
By independence, . Integrating the first term and using yields
Also : the kernel density estimator mean is an average of translates of , so the Jensen inequality followed by the Tonelli theorem bounds its squared integral.
To optimize over every , we must establish that useful smoothing bandwidths approach zero, rather than optimize only a formal small- expression. An exact calculation supplies that justification. The autocorrelation integral of the exponential distribution density is
Averaging over the two uniform windows, or integrating the piecewise expression for , gives
These formulas show that is continuous on , is strictly positive there because on , and tends to as . Consequently, is bounded away from zero on for every . Its expansion agrees with the supplied .
The choice gives
Choose smoothing bandwidths within of the infimum. Their mean integrated squared error tends to zero, and nonnegativity of the integrated variance gives , hence . For any , eventually
The last step is the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality. Taking the lower limit and then matches the upper bound. Thus
The original PDF has this constant; the TeX aid's is a transcription error.
A non-degenerate probability distribution is not concentrated at a single point. In extreme value theory, a non-degenerate distribution function is max-stable if, for each integer , constants satisfy for every . This says that a normalized sample maximum has the same law as one observation. A distribution function belongs to the maximum domain of attraction of a non-degenerate if there are such that
at every continuity point of . Equivalently, has convergence in distribution to .
The extremal types theorem says that any such non-degenerate limit is max-stable and, up to a positive affine change of variable, is exactly one of the following:
These are respectively the Gumbel distribution, Fréchet distribution, and negative Weibull distribution. The theorem is also known as the Fisher–Tippett–Gnedenko theorem.
Useful sufficient conditions can be expressed using the survival function and the right endpoint of a distribution . An infinite endpoint with for every gives the Fréchet distribution domain. A finite endpoint with as gives the negative Weibull distribution domain. For the Gumbel distribution, it suffices that a positive Gumbel auxiliary function gives for every real as . These are regular variation and exponential tail-ratio conditions; they need no proof here.
In case (i), on , so the finite-endpoint ratio is exactly . Therefore the domain is negative Weibull with shape . With and ,
and the limit is one for .
In case (ii), has exponential tail ratio with the constant Gumbel auxiliary function . Therefore the domain is Gumbel. Choosing and gives
In case (iii), has regular variation of index , so the domain is Fréchet with shape . The convenient choices and give
with limit zero for .
Finally, define the empirical distribution function . On a sample with positive threshold and exactly observations strictly above , its survival function has . Using the Tonelli theorem to integrate the finite nonnegative sum gives
This is the Hill estimator as an empirical plug-in version of the tail-integral limit. It does not prove consistency for fixed ; that is a separate issue.
There is a finite-sample qualification because the question permits ties and does not assume positive observations. The formula requires and . If because the threshold is tied, direct substitution gives
where terms equal to the threshold contribute zero. This is generally times the displayed Hill estimator, rather than the same estimator. If , the empirical plug-in denominator is zero. For a continuous probability distribution the no-tie condition holds almost surely; for a Fréchet distribution domain and fixed , the threshold is positive with probability tending to one. Thus the stated plug-in identity holds at a positive untied threshold, and the literal claim for all samples from an arbitrary distribution function needs this qualification.
Use the unit-period circle , with total measure one. The free characteristic flow map gives
Translations in preserve its periodic measure. The Tonelli theorem and the integral triangle inequality yield
The Fubini's theorem therefore applies also to signed data, and the same translation gives
This holds for positive or negative time. The printed in this subpart is a domain typo: the spatial variable is periodic, so the correct space is . For example, the smooth initial value gives the constant density , whose periodic extension is not integrable on the real line.
Let , and denote the free-transport semigroup by . For fixed , the spatial translation has unit Jacobian determinant, so the Tonelli theorem gives
Thus the given free term is an isometry on . The operators form a strongly continuous semigroup: continuity first holds for smooth compactly supported functions by dominated convergence, and density plus the isometry extends it to every function.
For an invertible probability measure-preserving system, an almost periodic observable is an whose Koopman operator orbit is totally bounded:
Equivalently, for every it has a finite -net in . For a noninvertible system use the forward orbit .
A factor map satisfies and almost everywhere. Disintegrate over this map and write
for the conditional L2 norm. A relatively almost periodic observable is an such that, for every , there are finitely many with
The center may depend on both and ; the finite list itself does not. Since is countable, the exceptional null sets can be combined. A compact extension of a measure-preserving system is a factor map for which these relatively almost periodic observables are dense in . This density definition should not be replaced by a claim that every observable already satisfies the uniform fiberwise finite-net condition.
For a proper factor map example, let carry independent fair coordinates and the two-sided Bernoulli shift , with . Set
using the product of the Bernoulli measure and the equal two-point measure. These are invertible measure-preserving systems, and the projection preserves measure and intertwines the transformations, so it is a two-to-one factor map.
Take . Then . Distinct coordinates are independent and have mean zero and variance one, hence
Its orbit has no finite sufficiently small net. Thus the Bernoulli coordinate observable is not almost periodic in global . In contrast, the conditional measure over is the equal measure on , and is constant on that fiber with value . The two centers give zero error on every fiber for every . Therefore is a relatively almost periodic observable for this map.
The example is also a finite-fiber compact extension. For a bounded observable on , each orbit value on a fiber is a pair in a fixed bounded subset of , which has a finite net. Its centers can be chosen as functions constant in , with prescribed values on the two labels. Bounded observables are dense in , so the extension is compact. The Bernoulli shift is mixing: cylinder events involving disjoint coordinate sets are independent for all sufficiently large shifts, and approximation by cylinder events extends this to arbitrary events. Thus and are ergodic. If an invariant function on is written , invariance gives and . The first function is constant; the second is -invariant and hence constant, and then its sign equation forces zero. This proves that the example's source is also ergodic.
For the positive-subset assertion, interpret the printed as , or as an invariant full-measure domain of the factor map; the prime is otherwise undefined and does not change the measure-theoretic argument.
First establish conditional norm covariance under a factor map. Invariance of the measures and uniqueness in the disintegration theorem for a probability measure give
on common full-measure sets. For the first equality, is another disintegration over the same fibers: it is supported on and integrates to . Uniqueness identifies it with , and iteration gives the norm formula.
Two elementary facts explain localization of relative almost periodicity to base sets. If is a relatively almost periodic observable and is measurable, then is also relatively almost periodic. Indeed, on a fiber,
When that indicator is one, use a center for ; when it is zero, use the additional center . Secondly, relative almost periodicity is closed under convergence in the uniform conditional L2 norm
If this norm of tends to zero, covariance bounds the corresponding error between every pair of orbit values by the same number. A finite -net for one sufficiently close is consequently an -net for .
Now take . The compact extension supplies relatively almost periodic observables with
Put . The Tonelli theorem gives
Hence for -almost every . Since , choose for which
has positive measure. The Egorov theorem gives a measurable of positive measure on which uniformly. Define
Then
For , the localization fact makes every relatively almost periodic, while
The conditional-norm closure fact therefore proves is a relatively almost periodic observable, with and positive measure. This is the positive-measure almost periodic indicator in a compact extension. No ergodic component or uncountable intersection of exceptional sets is needed in this construction; it in fact works under the same disintegration and compactness hypotheses without using the assumed ergodicity.
For a nonnegative random variable, . Tonelli theorem permits interchanging expectation and this nonnegative integral, giving the tail integral formula for moments:
The equality also holds when the mean is infinite. Thus mean completion time is the total area under the survival function, while a restricted mean survival time integrates only to a specified follow-up horizon.
Use for the premium income rate, reserving later for the smaller exponential decay rate. In the classical risk model, the surplus is
Here is the relative safety loading. The aggregate claims form a Compound Poisson process. Define , so ruin occurs when . By independent increments and the exponential formula for a marked Poisson sum,
Thus is a nonnegative continuous-time martingale with , because the adjustment coefficient makes the exponent vanish.
Let . Apply the optional stopping theorem at the bounded stopping time . On , , so
Letting increase proves the Lundberg inequality and the unscaled limit:
For the precise asymptotic, put
The given exponential integral identity makes a probability density. Multiplying the given defective renewal equation by turns it into the ordinary renewal equation
For clarity, the version of the key renewal theorem used here is: if the interarrival law is nonarithmetic, has mean , and is directly Riemann integrable, the locally bounded solution of this renewal equation satisfies . The infinite-mean version gives zero for nonnegative directly Riemann integrable .
All the hypotheses can be checked here. The density gives a nonarithmetic distribution. The Tonelli theorem gives
Furthermore
Thus is continuous and integrable, and . On a mesh of width , the difference between its upper and lower sums is at most ; its upper sum is at most . This proves direct Riemann integrability rather than assuming it. Also by the Lundberg inequality, so the solution is locally bounded. Its renewal representation is , where and ; the residual after iteration tends to zero on compact intervals because sums of positive interarrivals tend to infinity.
Writing , the tilted interarrival expected value is . The key renewal theorem gives the Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic
If , the same formula is interpreted as . A positive finite asymptotic constant requires ; this extra integrability is not explicitly stated in the paper.
For the final two-exponential case, evaluate the defective renewal equation at zero:
One can identify the adjustment coefficient without silently assuming . For , set
It is finite and positive. Integrating the nonnegative terms of the defective renewal equation, using the Tonelli theorem, first shows that is finite and then gives
As , because . By monotone convergence theorem, . The integrated tail distribution in the classical risk model has density , so by the tail integral formula for moments. Hence solves the adjustment equation, and its stipulated uniqueness implies . Finally the displayed form of gives the remaining constants
In particular the decay exponent and the coefficient do not affect or . The in these final answers is the printed decay rate, not .
Recognize the integrand as a Gaussian scale mixture. If has the unit Rayleigh distribution and is an independent standard normal distribution variable, then the conditional density of given is . Multiplying by the radius density gives
Thus use for the independent radius and for the normal output of the Box-Muller transform:
The mixture argument also proves that integrates to one, by the Tonelli theorem. As a check, is exponential of rate , so the characteristic function of is . This is the Rayleigh-normal scale mixture, with Laplace distribution density .
The random clock is understood to be independent of the discrete-time Markov chain; without this hypothesis its law need not be determined by alone. Conditional on , the transition matrix is , so
Hence for and . If , then by the series, proving that the invariant distribution is unchanged.
Let be the independent exponential interarrival times of the Poisson process. The absorption time is . By independence of the chain and clock and Tonelli theorem,
This includes infinite expectations and absorption at time zero. The same argument proves the hinted random-sum identity for an independent nonnegative integer-valued count .
Assume , so the conditioning event has positive probability. For a continuous-time Markov chain, write . At each time , the Markov property gives . Using Tonelli theorem for the nonnegative occupation integral,
Division by yields . The discrete-time proof replaces the integral by a sum. Infinite expectations are allowed in the nonnegative sense; if , the numerator is zero directly, avoiding an ambiguous product of zero and infinity.
Let and let be the first visit to strictly after , with if there is none. Put . The Strong Markov property at each finite first return time gives, by induction,
The number of visits, including time zero, is . By Tonelli theorem for nonnegative terms,
If , this geometric series is , and is the probability of never returning. If , every term of the final series is one and both sides are infinite. Thus
with the prescribed infinite-value convention. This covers both transient states and recurrent states.
Write for Lebesgue measure on . The Prékopa–Leindler inequality says that if and nonnegative measurable functions satisfy
then their Lebesgue integrals satisfy
It suffices initially to take . Zero integrals give a trivial bound; infinite integrals can be handled by truncating and and applying the monotone convergence theorem. As usual, a zero factor makes the asserted lower bound zero.
Here is a one-dimensional proof using quantile functions. Put , , and let , , be the quantile functions of the probability density functions and . At almost every the quantile derivative identity gives
For completeness, these reciprocal derivative identities follow by differentiating the corresponding cumulative distribution functions at their Lebesgue points and then differentiating the inverse function relation. Sampling a quantile function at a uniform argument samples the density itself, so the exceptional set, including locations where the density vanishes or is infinite, has probability zero. Gaps in a density's support can give jumps in its quantile function; they do not invalidate the argument below.
The monotone function obeys the monotone substitution inequality:
This form uses the ordinary derivative of a monotone function, rather than any jump or singular part: its weighted image measure is dominated by Lebesgue measure. One can see this first for intervals, where , and then extend to nonnegative measurable functions by simple function approximation. Thus no assumption of strictly positive smooth probability density functions is hidden in the proof.
Using the hypothesis and the weighted arithmetic-geometric mean inequality, we obtain
Integrating over proves the one-dimensional Prékopa–Leindler inequality.
For higher dimensions, use mathematical induction and Tonelli theorem. Write and set
Apply the one-dimensional Prékopa–Leindler inequality to the last-coordinate slices, with . It gives
Apply the induction hypothesis in and use Tonelli theorem once more. For finite total integrals, infinite slice integrals occur only on null sets and may be replaced by zero there; this only weakens the displayed premise. If the data are only Lebesgue measurable rather than Borel measurable, the exceptional nonmeasurable slices can be handled in the same way for , and by setting on its exceptional null set. The total integrals are unchanged, and the slice premise holds everywhere it is needed. The result therefore holds for general nonnegative measurable functions.