Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 31 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A martingale describes an observable after its predictable drift has been removed. For a Markov chain the drift is the change produced by its transition operator; for Brownian motion it is one half of the Laplacian. Requiring the resulting processes to be martingales for a sufficiently rich class of observables determines the transition law itself. The same identities, combined with optional stopping, determine hitting probabilities, expected exit times and recurrence or transience. The duplicated Q5 paragraph in the PDF is a repeated printing of this one essay request.
For a finite or countable-state Markov chain with transition matrix , define for a bounded test function . The Markov property says . Consequentlyis a martingale, since each increment has conditional expected value zero. Conversely, if these processes are martingales for every bounded , taking the conditional expectation of an increment recovers that identity. With it gives for every state . Thus, given the initial law, these identities characterize the Markov chain, not merely a few of its moments. This is the discrete-time Markov chain martingale characterization.
The drift operator is . If away from a target set, is a stopped martingale, where is the first hit of that set. Under boundedness or suitable uniform integrability, the optional stopping theorem expresses in terms of boundary hitting probabilities. Similarly, if away from the target and on it, then is a martingale, giving when the terminal limit is justified.
For a concrete calculation, take a simple symmetric random walk on stopped at , its first hit of or . In the interior, has zero drift, while satisfiesThe stopped identity gives , proving finite with finite mean. Bounded convergence in both stopped identities now yields the gambler's ruin answersThis illustrates why the integrability justification is part of using a martingale, rather than an automatic consequence of writing an equation.
For a finite-state continuous-time Markov chain with generator matrix , the corresponding martingale problem for a continuous-time Markov chain usesThese are martingales. Conversely, suppose an adapted càdlàg finite-state process satisfies these identities. Let , fix , and set . Then . Apply deterministic integration by parts to the finite collection of indicator martingales to obtain the time-dependent Dynkin formula: is a martingale. ThereforeThis recovers the Markov property and the entire semigroup, proving the characterization. On countable spaces one uses nonexplosion and localization to justify the analogous unbounded-rate formulas.
For -dimensional Brownian motion, the Itô formula shows that, for ,is a true martingale, since its bounded derivatives make the integral square-integrable on each bounded horizon. This is the martingale problem for Brownian motion with generator .
Here is why it also characterizes Brownian motion. Suppose a continuous adapted process , with , satisfies that martingale problem. Use smooth cutoff test functions equal to and inside successively larger balls, and stop before leaving those balls. The coordinate tests show that are continuous local martingales; the product tests show that are local martingales. The Itô product rule consequently givesthe difference between the two proposed compensators is a continuous finite-variation local martingale, hence constant and zero at time zero. For each , another application of the Itô formula gives the exponential local martingaleIts modulus is the deterministic quantity , so it is a true martingale on every bounded time interval. Taking its conditional expectation and dividing by its known value at time givesThe conditional characteristic function identifies a centered multivariate normal distribution of covariance , independent of the past. Together with continuity, this is the defining law of Brownian motion. This proves the Lévy characterization of multidimensional Brownian motion in the form needed for the generator characterization.
The analytic use of these martingales parallels the chain case. A harmonic function satisfies , so it yields a stopped local martingale until the process leaves its domain of harmonicity. Bounded stopped observables permit optional stopping and solve boundary hitting problems. A solution of with zero boundary values gives an expected exit time. For example, in the ball of radius , gives ; stopping first at proves finiteness and justifies the limiting calculation. The Brownian local time construction in Q4 is another example: the predictable compensators of approximations to recover its increasing occupation term.
We now prove the required three-dimensional transience of Brownian motion in dimension at least three, in the strong sense almost surely. Start first at a point with , and let be the first exit from this annulus. The radial Laplacian in dimension three givesThus is a bounded martingale. The exit time is finite: stopping gives . At exit, continuity puts at either or . The optional stopping theorem therefore yieldsand hence the Brownian sphere-hitting probability in dimension threeAs , the events increase to : a continuous path is bounded on the finite interval preceding any finite inner hit. This argument assumes no transience. ConsequentlyTo pass from a positive escape probability to almost-sure eventual escape, take Brownian motion started at zero. Let be its first hit of the sphere of radius . Stopping the squared-norm martingale proves . At , the Strong Markov property and the preceding hitting formula giveThe Strong Markov property here follows from independent Brownian increments by approximating a stopping time from above with dyadic-valued stopping times and using path continuity. Choose . The exit times increase to infinity, since a continuous path is bounded on every compact time interval. The events of a return to the closed ball of radius after decrease and have probabilities . Their intersection has probability zero. Thus almost surely there is some finite exit time after which the path never again enters that ball. Apply this simultaneously to all positive integer . This proves the last visit to a bounded ball for three-dimensional Brownian motion conclusion and therefore
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 39 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
At an interior statistical parameter , local asymptotic normality means that there are random vectors and a symmetric nonnegative Fisher information matrix such that, for each fixed ,A common stronger definition requires this expansion also for . The fixed- version suffices here. A regular identifiable model usually has positive definite Fisher information; nonsingularity is unnecessary for the contiguity conclusion.
Here are sufficient differentiability conditions for a proof by Taylor's theorem. Suppose the local probability density functions have common support, is twice continuously differentiable near , differentiation can pass through the normalization integral twice, the score function has finite second moment, and the local Hessian matrix is bounded in operator norm by an integrable envelope of a function class. These hypotheses implyThe first identity differentiates once; the second uses and differentiates twice. The central limit theorem gives . Taylor's integral remainder givesThe weak law of large numbers and the continuity and integrable-envelope hypotheses make the bracket converge in probability to . Indeed, the expectation of the supremum of the Hessian matrix difference over a shrinking neighborhood tends to zero by dominated convergence, and Markov inequality controls its empirical average. This proves local asymptotic normality and explains the role of both derivatives.
Write for contiguity of probability measures: for every measurable sequence , implies . Mutual contiguity requires this in both directions. A useful form of Le Cam's first lemma is the following: if the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the absolutely continuous part of relative to converges in distribution under to , with almost surely and , then the two sequences are mutually contiguous. This includes the usual case . The mean-one condition ensures uniform integrability of and vanishing mass of any singular part; positivity ensures the reverse implication.
Take and . Their likelihood ratio on the support of satisfies, by local asymptotic normality and the continuous mapping theorem,This limit is positive and , including . The conditions of Le Cam's first lemma therefore hold, giving mutual contiguity of the product sampling laws. The products, rather than the one-observation laws, are the relevant sequences.
For any , let . Consistency under makes , and contiguity gives . Thus the estimator remains consistent for under each fixed local alternative. Since , it is also consistent for the moving parameter in the sense that in probability under .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 24 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The martingale convergence theorem says that a discrete-time martingale satisfyinghas an almost sure convergence limit , finite almost surely and in . The theorem asserts that the limit is integrable; it does not assert convergence in L1. More generally, the almost sure submartingale convergence theorem applies to a submartingale with . Uniform integrability is the additional condition that upgrades a martingale's convergence to convergence in L1.
For the requested distinction, let be independent fair Bernoulli variables and use their natural filtration. The coin-doubling martingaleis a nonnegative martingale: conditionally on , the next factor is with mean one, so . Also for every , giving the required uniform bound. The probability that all the Bernoulli variables equal one is . Therefore a zero is eventually encountered almost surely, after which stays zero. ThusThere can be no other limit, since convergence in L1 implies convergence in probability, whose limit must agree with the almost sure limit. This martingale satisfies the almost sure theorem but does not converge in .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 27 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Since the density martingale is uniformly integrable, . Equivalence of measures, as stipulated, means almost surely. Write for the stochastic logarithm. The Itô formula gives , and hence the quadratic covariation in the drift correction isIt involves the local-martingale part of ; its continuous finite-variation part has zero covariation.
With , the Itô product rule now gives an exact cancellation:Thus is a P-local martingale. To transfer this conclusion rigorously, set . The same computation for the stopped givesThis is again a P-local martingale. Moreover its absolute value is at most . Uniform integrability of makes the family over bounded stopping times uniformly integrable, so the product is a true martingale. This is the bounded-process density-product criterion.
The Bayes formula for conditional expectation therefore gives, for ,Continuity gives , proving is a Q-local martingale. This proves the needed Girsanov theorem rather than invoking it.
For the Brownian-filtration conclusion, use this precise Brownian martingale representation theorem: every continuous local martingale in the usual augmentation of the natural Brownian filtration is an Itô integral with a predictable integrand locally square integrable in time. In particularDefineOn each finite horizon a strictly positive continuous has a positive pathwise minimum. Thus almost surely, andThe already proved measure-change result makes a continuous Q-local martingale. Its quadratic variation is , unchanged by its finite-variation correction. The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion provesNo additional exponential-integrability condition is needed, since the equivalent uniformly integrable density process is already given.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 29 1 iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Put . The stopped martingale in discrete time identityshows that is a martingale: the indicator function is -measurable and the increment has zero conditional expectation. Integrability follows because is selected from the finitely many integrable values .
For the bounded stopping time , the optional stopping theorem in its conditional form givesHere is the stopping-time sigma-algebra. Indeed, for , partition into and apply the martingale identity on each piece. This proves the displayed conditional expectation identity directly.
Let and . Conditional absolute-value domination and the Markov inequality give and, for any ,First choose using the uniform integrability of , and then choose . The estimate is uniform in , proving uniform integrability of a stopped uniformly integrable martingale. No finiteness assumption on is needed.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 29 1 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
A martingale has uniform integrability when its entire family of time values has uniformly small integrable tails:Here every is an integrable random variable. This implies , because the contribution from is at most . Mere boundedness of these expectations does not imply uniform integrability.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 29 1 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write . For , let be the upcrossing count obtained by successively buying at an observation at or below and selling at an observation at or above , with the first purchase allowed at time zero. The Doob upcrossings lemma for an integrable discrete-time martingale isThe weaker last bound is also the usual Doob upcrossing inequality.
To prove it, hold one unit between each purchase and sale, and zero units otherwise. If records the holding over , the decision is -measurable, with . The resulting martingale transform has gainEach completed upcrossing earns at least . An unfinished holding loses at most . If a purchase occurs at zero, its price is , giving the additional discount , whether that holding has been sold or remains open. If no purchase occurs at zero, this extra term is zero. Therefore, path by path,Taking expectations proves the bound.
The martingale convergence theorem, stated without proof, says that a discrete-time martingale satisfying converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable . In particular every nonnegative martingale converges almost surely to a finite limit. Under uniform integrability, the uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem additionally gives convergence in L1 and .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The almost sure submartingale convergence theorem says that if a submartingale satisfiesthen there is an integrable random variable such thatIndeed the positive-part bound also bounds the negative parts, since ; the theorem gives a finite limit. In particular, the martingale convergence theorem applies to any martingale with .
For a nonnegative martingale, supplies this bound automatically. Its limit obeys by the Fatou lemma. Almost sure convergence alone need not preserve the expectation or give convergence in L1. Uniform integrability is the additional condition that supplies convergence in L1 and the identity .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 1 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Take independent and identically distributed random variables with the Bernoulli distribution of parameter , and their natural filtration. SetThe event at is the whole sample space. Independence givesso this is a nonnegative martingale; it is integrable with . The first zero among the is almost surely finite, since the probability of having only ones through time is . After that first zero, every is zero. Hence the almost sure limit is zero:This fair-coin doubling martingale also exhibits failure of uniform integrability: convergence in L1 would force the expectations to converge to zero.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 2 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The time is a stopping time, because . Apply the optional stopping theorem to the bounded time :On the stopped value is at least , and elsewhere it is nonnegative. Letting gives the maximal bound for a nonnegative martingale:Stop at a bounded time first, then pass to the increasing event. This avoids assuming uniform integrability of the original process. For , and the bound simply says .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 5 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The domain is the union of the horizontal and vertical strips. The four connected components of its boundary carry the constants in the northeast, northwest, southwest and southeast, respectively.
The cross-shaped domain, its four boundary values, and the auxiliary upper strip used for the limit at infinity
. Details. First justify finiteness of . A small open ball around lies outside the domain. By part (b), planar Brownian motion visits that ball almost surely in finite time. A continuous path from to that ball must meet first. Hence almost surely, and by continuity.
The harmonic function is smooth inside . The Itô formula, localized on relatively compact subdomains, makes a local martingale. Its boundary definition uses the continuous extension of . Since is bounded, this stopped process is a true martingale with uniform integrability: pass through the compact exhaustion using bounded convergence theorem. In particular .
Now almost surely as . The dominated convergence theorem, boundedness of , and its continuous boundary values give the bounded harmonic representation with almost sure Brownian exit:Almost sure exit and boundedness of the harmonic function are both used. The domain's unboundedness causes no loss of expectation here because the stopped function values are uniformly bounded.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 202 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The Novikov condition holds on every horizon, sinceTherefore is a true martingale and the Girsanov theorem applies through each finite .
The deterministic bound also gives a genuine infinite-horizon density. For any , the stochastic exponential identity isA nonnegative local martingale is a supermartingale, soThis bound gives uniform integrability. Also is a L2-bounded continuous martingale, since localization and the Itô isometry give . The L2 martingale convergence theorem gives a finite limit ; hence and . Weighting by defines an equivalent probability measure on . This is the bounded-bracket criterion for a stochastic exponential.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 201 3 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The martingale convergence theorem in its -bounded form says that a martingale with has an integrable limit andThe norm bound on the limit follows from Fatou lemma. Boundedness in by itself does not imply convergence in L1. The uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem gives the stronger conclusion: if is uniformly integrable, then both almost surely and in L1 norm, and . Conversely, convergence in L1 implies uniform integrability.
For the distinction, the fair-coin doubling martingale has expectation one for every but converges almost surely to zero. Its L1 norm remains one, so its convergence is not in L1 norm. These two formulations specify exactly which hypothesis is needed in part (d).
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 202 3 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
The Exponential martingale for Brownian motion is a true martingale: independent increments and the normal distribution identity for give . Its second moment isThe uniform integrability from bounded second moments criterion now applies: for ,Thus has uniform integrability. In fact, all values stopped at stopping times bounded by have uniform integrability, since and uniform integrability of conditional expectations applies. This is a finite-horizon assertion, not an assertion of uniform integrability over all .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 202 3 e Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
No absolutely continuous probability measure can remove this nonzero drift on the whole half-line. By the strong law for Brownian motion, the eventhas -probability one. If , absolute continuity of measures gives . But if is a Brownian motion under , the same strong law for Brownian motion gives with -probability one. Since , these two limiting events are disjoint, a contradiction.
This is infinite-horizon singularity of Brownian motion with constant drift. The finite-horizon densities are consistent on but cannot define a globally absolutely continuous measure with the requested property. Indeed,because . Hence lacks uniform integrability on . A drifted law does exist on canonical path space, but it is mutually singular with Wiener measure on the infinite-horizon path sigma-algebra.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 203 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Put on . This is a harmonic function, tends to zero at infinity, and is bounded. To justify the boundary behavior without requiring a locally connected space as its boundary, let . Its expansion at infinity implies that bounded cannot have . If approaches a finite point of and had a subsequential limit inside , continuity of would force that point to lie inside , a contradiction. Thus boundary degeneration under a mapping-out function gives . Consequently extends continuously to the finite boundary with value .
Let be planar Brownian motion started at , and its Brownian exit time from . This time is finite almost surely: it is at most the first time the imaginary coordinate, a one-dimensional Brownian motion, hits zero. By the Itô formula, is a bounded martingale. The optional stopping theorem and dominated convergence theorem therefore giveBoundedness is important here: directly stopping the unbounded imaginary-coordinate martingale would require an unjustified uniform integrability assertion.
At , the Laurent series gives . HenceThe sign follows because the exit point lies on . This proves the Brownian representation of half-plane capacity.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 ii Paper 1 22F d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-05
Let be conjugate to , so , including for . Hölder's inequality implies, for every measurable finite-measure set ,This proves integrability on and gives uniform integrability there. Choose a set with on which convergence is uniform, using Egorov theorem. ThenFirst take and then . Thus even the local difference tends to zero, and in particularFor , simple functions supported on finite-measure Borel sets are dense in . The displayed convergence proves pairing convergence for such functions. Approximate any by a simple and useBy the duality of Lp spaces, these are all continuous linear functionals on , so converges weakly to . It need not converge strongly: converges pointwise to zero but has norm one. For the pairing argument gives weak-star convergence against , rather than asserting weak convergence against every functional in the much larger full dual.
