Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 26 2 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let and . Differentiating the transformation law of a weight- modular form gives the derivative transformation of a weak modular formThe corresponding anomaly for has coefficient . Consequently these anomalies cancel in , which transforms with weight . The derivatives are holomorphic on the complex upper half-plane. In a Fourier expansion, , so each term in the combination has zero constant coefficient and no negative powers. There is just one modular cusp up to the full modular group. ThereforeThis is, up to the chosen sign, the first Rankin-Cohen bracket.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 31 6 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The deterministic shift has derivative and finite total energy one. The infinite-horizon Cameron-Martin formula therefore givesThe integral of this density is one by the moment-generating function of . It is strictly positive, so the shifted law and Wiener measure are equivalent on the whole half-line. The density depends only on the path through time one; after that time the shift is constant.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 31 6 Solution 2026-10-14
Here is a finite-horizon Girsanov theorem statement with the sign fixed explicitly. Let be a Brownian motion under , and let be predictable with almost surely. Ifis a true martingale with , then the measure defined by makes a Brownian motion up to . The sufficient Novikov condition is . Merely being a local martingale is not a sufficient density condition.
For a deterministic absolutely continuous function with and derivative , take . Novikov's condition holds because its exponential is deterministic and finite. Under , the canonical process has the law of a Brownian motion plus . Thus for every bounded measurable path functional ,This derives the Cameron-Martin theorem density formula from the Girsanov theorem, rather than assuming the two measures have the same drift convention. Replacing by changes the sign of the stochastic integral.
The question's path space is the whole half-line, not just one finite horizon. When , the density martingale satisfiesIt has a uniformly integrable limit of mean one, strictly positive almost surely. Integrals here converge in and almost surely. The finite-time identities then identify as the density on the full path sigma-algebra, since finite-time cylinder events generate it. This is Cameron-Martin shifts on infinite Wiener path space. Finite-horizon absolute continuity of measures alone does not imply infinite-horizon absolute continuity of measures.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For an interest parameter and nuisance parameter , the profile likelihood is , where maximizes the likelihood at fixed . Its maximum occurs at the joint maximum-likelihood estimate of . It preserves the optimized likelihood ratios for different interest values and is unchanged by one-to-one reparametrization of the nuisance at each fixed . It generally is neither a marginal sampling density nor a conditional likelihood, and eliminating nuisance parameters by maximization can introduce appreciable small-sample distortion. Differentiating the constrained score equation gives the curvature formulaat a joint stationary point. The corresponding expected-information expression is the efficient information for the interest parameter. Under the regular conditions of Wilks theorem, twice the profile log-likelihood drop has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution with the dimension of the interest parameter as its degrees of freedom.
For scalar nuisance, the Barndorff-Nielsen modified profile likelihood may be writtenwhere the sample-coordinate derivative holds and the ancillary statistic fixed. For vector nuisance the last two quantities are determinants. An equivalent form is , since differentiating the constrained nuisance score gives . The semicolon denotes differentiation in sample coordinates, not another ordinary parameter derivative. This Jacobian determinant adjustment is essential to the definition.
In the present model setThe log-likelihood is . ConsequentlyThe profile score is , and its derivative is . The expression in parentheses is the variance of the fixed design values under positive weights proportional to . Thus the profile log-likelihood is strictly concave for a nonconstant design. Its score changes from to as goes from to , giving a unique finite fit. If all coincide, only the mean is identifiable and inference on alone is not defined; that exceptional design must be excluded.
The specified ancillary coordinates give . At fixed , therefore,Meanwhile the constrained observed information isSubstitution provesEquivalently the sample derivative of the nuisance score is , which equals at the constrained fit and gives the same cancellation. Thus the modified profile likelihood for exponential regression is proportional to the ordinary profile likelihood. This conclusion uses the given ancillary; no proof of its ancillarity is required.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A statistical functional is a map defined on a class of probability distributions. Its associated functional statistic is , where is the empirical distribution and each is a Dirac measure. For example, yields the sample mean. The influence function records the derivative in the direction of point contamination:It is a local, infinitesimal robustness diagnostic, not a description of arbitrary large contamination.
Suppose is differentiable in a sense strong enough to linearize it at the empirical distribution, and that its derivative in a signed direction is . Averaging the directions over gives the zero direction, so linearity implies . The resulting asymptotic linear representation isIf , the central limit theorem and the negligible remainder giveThus the asymptotic variance is . For a vector functional the integral is . Convergence of the actual finite-sample variance to this leading expression additionally requires control of second moments of the remainder, or an appropriate uniform integrability condition; convergence in distribution alone does not provide that. Existence of a contamination derivative by itself also does not guarantee the required empirical linearization.
Several complementary robustness measures follow. Gross-error sensitivity is . Under contamination , the first-order bias is , whose worst absolute coefficient is ; bounded influence therefore bounds infinitesimal gross-error bias. The local-shift sensitivity is , equal to when the influence function is smoothly differentiable. It measures the effect of moving a contaminant a small distance. The rejection point of an influence function is , using centered, standardized coordinates; it is infinite if there is no such cutoff. A finite cutoff completely rejects sufficiently extreme observations to first order. These measures address different aspects of robustness. The integral of squared influence controls asymptotic precision and efficiency, while breakdown point concerns finite amounts of contamination and is not determined by bounded influence alone.
For the quantile, assume , a unique solution , and a density continuous and positive at . Define quantiles of the contaminated distribution by generalized inversion, since a distribution with a point mass need not attain as an equality. If , its indicator is constant near for sufficiently small contamination, and differentiatingat zero gives . HenceAt the exceptional point , the generalized-inverse quantile remains exactly : below the contaminated cumulative distribution function is below , and its value at exceeds . Its actual derivative there is zero. The usual step-function expression is an almost-everywhere version, which is all that the asymptotic variance needs. Its mean is zero, and its second moment isTherefore the influence function of a quantile gives asymptotic variance and gross-error sensitivity . Its jump makes local-shift sensitivity infinite, and its nonzero constant tails make its rejection point infinite. If or the quantile is not unique, this regular derivation does not apply.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 6 iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An ancillary statistic has a sampling distribution independent of the unknown parameter. It describes a realized aspect of the sample configuration without supplying a marginal likelihood for the parameter. Its observed value can nevertheless be crucial to the precision of inference from the rest of the data. In a transitive transformation model, invariance gives a common distribution under every parameter value, so maximal invariants provide natural ancillaries, such as the standardized configuration in a location-scale family.
Conditional inference uses the sampling distribution of an estimator or sufficient statistic conditional on the observed ancillary. With joint coordinates , the factorizationshows that the conditional likelihood and the joint likelihood differ only by a parameter-free data factor. Conditional reference distributions, confidence intervals and p-values can still differ markedly from unconditional ones, because they adapt to the realized configuration. For a continuous ancillary one uses a regular conditional distribution or conditional density; dividing by the zero probability of a single ancillary value is not a valid definition.
An exact example makes this adaptation visible. Let independent observations be uniform on , with . Put , , and . Specifying the minimum and maximum contributes choices of observations, while each remaining observation must lie between them. HenceThe transformation , has unit absolute Jacobian determinant. Its support is , . Integrating over giveswhich is independent of , proving that the range is ancillary. Dividing the joint density by this marginal density givesThe centered conditional pivot is uniform, sohas conditional coverage at every , and hence unconditional coverage as well. A large realized range leaves little room for translating the interval and gives more precise inference. This is range-conditioned uniform location inference. The range and center are not independent: the conditional spread depends on the range, even though the range is ancillary.
Completeness can give independence in other models. Suppose is a complete sufficient statistic and is ancillary. For any bounded measurable , sufficiency makes a function independent of , while ancillarity makes independent of . Since for every , completeness implies almost surely. Taking all bounded indicator functions proves independence of and . This is the content of Basu's theorem, with the proof displaying precisely where sufficiency and completeness are used. Without completeness the conclusion fails: in the uniform location example the minimum and maximum are sufficient, and contain the nondegenerate ancillary range.
There are practical qualifications. Ancillaries need not be unique, and some models supply only approximate ancillary coordinates; one must specify the conditioning surface and the accuracy intended. Conditioning on a statistic sufficient for a nuisance parameter is a different device: it may remove that nuisance even though the statistic is not ancillary for the full parameter. Conditioning indiscriminately can discard useful information. In higher-order likelihood inference, the ancillary coordinates specify how the fitted data are varied, entering both the p* density and the sample derivatives in the modified profile likelihood. Their role is therefore substantive, rather than merely a label for an extra statistic.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 6 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Partition a regular parameter as , with interest and nuisance . Orthogonal statistical parameters have zero cross-block of expected Fisher information,This may hold at one parameter value or throughout a parametrization. It is expected-information orthogonality, and does not generally force the observed information cross-block to vanish in each sample.
First, the asymptotic covariance of the joint maximum-likelihood estimator is the inverse information. Orthogonality makes this matrix block diagonal, giving first-order asymptotic independence of interest and nuisance fits. The efficient information with unknown nuisance isFor orthogonal parameters it equals . Thus estimating the nuisance creates no first-order information loss relative to knowing it, at the orthogonal point. This is a local asymptotic statement, not a general finite-sample independence theorem.
Second, orthogonality stabilizes constrained nuisance estimates. Differentiating givesWhen the expected cross-information vanishes, regular sampling fluctuations give and . The derivative is therefore locally. Changing the interest parameter by changes its constrained nuisance fit by only , smaller than the ordinary nuisance estimation error. This reduces sensitivity to how the nuisance is fitted and simplifies higher-order likelihood adjustments.
For scalar interest, local orthogonal nuisance reparametrization can often be constructed explicitly. Keep and write the original nuisance as . The transformed interest score is . Its covariance with the new nuisance score vanishes whenWith smooth nonsingular nuisance information, this ordinary differential equation has a local solution for suitable initial nuisance coordinates. For several interest coordinates the corresponding equations need compatibility conditions; global orthogonality is not automatic.
The normal model gives a transparent example. For independent observations with mean and variance , direct score expectations giveThe cross-information is zero because the centered normal third moment is zero. When fitting at fixed ,so the change is indeed quadratic in a local change of the mean.
Orthogonality is also useful for removing nuisance effects beyond first order. Take variance as interest and mean as nuisance. Put . The profile log-likelihood is up to a constant. The constrained mean is for all , so its sample-coordinate Jacobian determinant is one, and . The information adjustment givesThis agrees with the exact likelihood based on : estimating the mean has used one degree of freedom. In this setting the Cox-Reid adjusted profile likelihood has the same form. The exact distribution follows by projecting the centered normal vector onto the -dimensional subspace orthogonal to the constant vector; an orthonormal basis there supplies independent standard normal coordinates whose squares sum to .
The example shows both the benefit and the limits. Orthogonality organizes first-order precision and nuisance stability; it does not eliminate all higher-order nuisance effects. Nor does it identify an ancillary statistic or justify dropping the sample-coordinate factor in every modified profile likelihood. In the exponential regression calculation that factor cancels the information adjustment, so an information-only correction would give a different answer.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 48 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Put and integrate by parts using . The exponential cutoff has derivative , so the endpoint at infinity vanishes and the lower endpoint givesWith this becomesThe mass of the transformed integral lies at , whereTo control this asymptotic expansion, split at and . On the central interval the geometric-series remainder is bounded by , whose integral against is finite. The lower tail has length and denominator at least ; the upper tail is exponentially small in , with the original denominator at least one. The omitted tails of the logarithmic moments are likewise negligible. Thus extending the moments to is justified.
The Gamma function gives , and the first logarithmic moment is , with Euler's constant. ThereforeThis is the moving Gumbel cutoff in an inverse-power tail: replacing the original cutoff by a sharp step at gives the first term, but its smooth transition supplies the Euler-constant correction.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 48 2 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For real , the multiplier has modulus one andThe triangle inequality applied to the integral therefore givesThe hypotheses and ensure endpoint convergence. Differentiation in is justified on compact parameter intervals by integrable bounds with an additional factor . Differentiating both the exponential multiplier and the power of makes the logarithmic denominator cancel:Here the scaled Gamma function integral is obtained by . Integrating this derivative from zero to yieldsThe same modulus bound also gives the useful parameter-shift remainder bound for a logarithmic Laplace integralbecause the denominator magnitude is at least .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 48 3 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Putting gives the local regular perturbation result . It cannot describe the whole half-line: its derivative grows like , making order one at .
The useful exact change of variables isDirect substitution turns the equation into two autonomous differential equations,The initial values here are . Near the origin, linearizing this system gives eigenvalues and . Equivalently, neglecting only the derivative-square nonlinearity in the original equation gives the two modes and . Their matching coefficients areThus the growing derivative has . Keeping these unexpanded linear-mode coefficients is convenient for matching; it does not assert that the linearized solution is the exact nonlinear one.
At the distinguished limit , set . To leading order the derivative equation becomes , the logistic differential equation. Matching as selectsThen , and the growing-mode matching givesThis proves the logistic crossover in a weakly nonlinear Euler equation. In particular the nonlinear-region leading solution is , or with the constants taken at their lowest order.
A composite asymptotic expansion retaining the small-distance stable mode and satisfying the initial value exactly isSince , this matches when and hence at fixed as . Its derivative at one differs from the prescribed value only by , within leading-order accuracy. For it gives . Thus the composite covers the initial region, the nonlinear transition and the arbitrarily large- regime; uniform leading accuracy is understood relative to the growing solution, not as an absolute error independent of unbounded .
There is no later hidden growth regime. The exact positive system keeps in , because its vector field points inward at every boundary. Its positive equilibrium point is , with Jacobian matrix having trace and determinant . The origin has no attracting direction inside the positive quadrant, while the divergence excludes cycles by the Bendixson-Dulac theorem. The Poincaré-Bendixson theorem therefore gives convergence to the positive stable equilibrium. At fixed small positive , the exact far-field slope is , whose difference from is only relative , consistent with the global leading composite.