Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 23 5 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The instantaneous forward rate is defined by , with . Integrating in maturity gives the zero-coupon bond price and its diagonal short rate:The solution of the continuous-time bank account equation , , is ; the integration variable is time. Its discounted bond value isAll these are adapted processes when the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model coefficients are adapted and the integrals exist.
For market completeness, stochastic integration over maturity givesThe Itô formula for the exponential then yieldsConsequently under a risk-neutral measure the no-arbitrage drift restriction isThe last equality needs sufficient maturity regularity and has a positive sign despite the negative definition of .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 23 5 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Under the specified risk-neutral measure, the Itô product rule and giveThus discounted traded zero-coupon bonds have zero drift. Assume the usual integrability and admissibility conditions that make discounted replicating values true martingales, not merely local martingales. If is an attainable financial payoff with , its self-financing portfolio value has terminal value and satisfiesMultiplying by yieldsThis proves the requested conditional pricing formula. In a Brownian filtration, the Martingale representation theorem realizes the discounted conditional expectation as a stochastic integral. If an available bond has nonzero Itô diffusion exposure, its holdings can match that integral, with the remaining value in the bank account, giving replication under the usual square-integrability conditions.
These attainability or market completeness hypotheses matter for a completely arbitrary contingent claim: existence of a risk-neutral measure alone need not imply a unique price for every unspanned financial payoff, and a zero-drift local martingale alone need not satisfy the displayed terminal expectation identity. In the general path-dependent Heath-Jarrow-Morton model, write the value as ; notation is justified only when the current short rate is a sufficient state for the financial payoff and dynamics.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 29 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the normal distribution density. The Brownian reflection principle gives the killed endpoint densityIndeed, reflection after the first hit of maps paths ending below that have hit the barrier to paths ending at ; symmetry gives .
By the Girsanov theorem, weighting the path law by makes the coordinate process a Brownian motion with drift . Completing the two squares yieldsIntegration up to proves the joint endpoint and maximum law for drifted Brownian motion:Here is the standard normal distribution function. Setting also gives a continuous barrier distribution, so equality at the barrier has zero probability.
For the up-and-in option, use the risk-neutral measure of the Black-Scholes model with interest rate and spot volatility . ThenAbove , the barrier has certainly been reached. Below , subtracting the killed density from the unrestricted endpoint density leaves . Thus the discounted expected value of its payoff isIn the second integral put , and defineThen , means , and . Both integrals now use the unrestricted terminal stock distribution. This proves that the reflected European payoff for an up-and-in option isTheir initial risk-neutral pricing values agree for payoffs with finite absolute expectations in these integrals. The identity concerns prices; the two terminal payoffs need not agree along individual paths.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 29 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write , , and let with . The portfolio holds shares of stock and units of the zero-coupon bond. It is self-financing when all changes of holdings are funded within it, which is the gain identityUnder the physical probability measure, write , where and . The Itô formula givesMatching the Brownian motion coefficients forces . Since , this is preciselyDifferentiating gives . Since , matching the drift coefficients now givesThese are the self-financing conditions for smooth stock and bond holdings. Conversely, substituting both identities into the Itô formula gives the gain identity, so they are sufficient as well. Smoothness and the positive lognormal distribution density of extend the identities along the price process to every , with boundary times obtained by continuity.
The portfolio with constant stock value in bond units must have , so . The first condition then gives , henceThe second condition reduces to . Initial portfolio wealth requires . Therefore the holdings areThe corresponding portfolio wealth isUnder the risk-neutral measure, , so its value in zero-coupon bond units is . This also verifies the self-financing gain equation after using the bond as numéraire.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 29 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let , , and let have the standard normal distribution. For a twice differentiable payoff with enough growth control for the following expectations and derivatives, risk-neutral pricing in the dividend-free Black-Scholes model givesThe conditional discounted payoff is a martingale under the risk-neutral measure. Applying the Itô formula to and setting its drift to zero therefore gives the Black-Scholes equationThe delta hedge holds shares; the remaining bond value is , or units of the zero-coupon bond. Substitution in the Itô formula and the displayed equation gives , proving replication and self-financing.
Differentiating the pricing expectation in the current stock price gives its option delta and option gamma:Thus a nondecreasing payoff has a nondecreasing price; a nonincreasing payoff has a nonincreasing price. A convex payoff has , and a concave payoff has . This is convexity preservation in Black-Scholes pricing.
The Black-Scholes parameter sensitivities follow directly from the same expectation. Differentiation in the interest rate gives the option rhoFor spot volatility, differentiation first givesThe Gaussian integration by parts identity , applied to , cancels the term containing and gives the option vegaConsequently increasing spot volatility increases a convex payoff's value and decreases a concave payoff's value, with weak inequalities in affine or degenerate cases. A short bond position gives positive option rho, while a long bond position gives negative option rho. The physical stock drift does not enter these prices: the risk-neutral measure replaces it by .
The option theta is the calendar-time derivative at fixed current stock price. The Black-Scholes equation givesFor , a convex payoff with therefore has , while a concave payoff with has . The signs are strict when . At , an affine payoff can give equality. Remaining-maturity sensitivity is when the payoff is independent of . All these time comparisons hold at fixed current stock price.
The stated time-monotonicity conclusion needs the nonnegative-rate condition. For example, the convex affine payoff hasThus with negative interest rates it provides an explicit counterexample even though the replica is short in bonds.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 32 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A credit derivative separates an exposure to a borrower's credit quality from outright ownership of its loan or bond. In the early-2002 setting, these were a growing, largely dealer-intermediated over-the-counter market. For scale, the contemporaneous BIS comparison reports ISDA member positions of about US632 billion at mid-2001. These are notional amounts, not market values or expected losses, and the survey did not eliminate double-counting; estimates from other surveys cannot simply be combined because their coverage differed. This historical description uses the BIS Quarterly Review, June 2002, derivatives-market comparison, rather than projecting later market totals back into the paper's date.
The basic unfunded contract is a credit default swap. The protection buyer pays a periodic spread until maturity or a defined credit event; the seller pays the contracted default loss, often notional times one minus recovery. Physical settlement instead delivers eligible defaulted debt in exchange for par. A total return swap exchanges the reference asset's coupons and price changes against a funding leg: its receiver earns gains, bears price losses and pays funding, obtaining broader market and credit exposure than default protection alone. A credit spread option pays on widening or narrowing of a quoted credit spread, transferring mark-to-market credit risk even without a default. A credit-linked note is funded: the investor supplies principal and accepts a reduction of coupons or principal after a reference credit event, in return for enhanced yield. The investor is economically selling protection and can also face the note issuer's own credit risk.
Basket products extend these ideas. A first-to-default swap pays when the first member of a reference basket defaults. A synthetic CDO uses credit default swaps to create portfolio credit exposure and allocates aggregate losses among tranches. For monetary portfolio loss and attachment/exhaustion amounts , the credit tranche loss function is . These contracts require a model of joint defaults and recoveries, not just a list of individual default probabilities. The separation of credit exposure from financing and the role of synthetic structures were already central to the Federal Reserve's December 2001 discussion of credit derivatives.
For risk management, a bank can buy protection on a concentrated borrower exposure while retaining the loan and customer relationship. It can transfer sectors or names it already holds heavily and diversify the remaining portfolio. Recognition of a hedge for capital purposes depends on the actual transfer and applicable rules, not merely on the instrument's name. Investors can instead sell protection or buy credit-linked notes to obtain chosen credit exposure without buying the cash bond, seek a risk premium, or take relative-value positions between cash bonds and swaps. Such positions still depend on funding and on the credit-spread basis: contractual events, maturity, currency and recovery terms may fail to match the original exposure. Protection also replaces part of the reference risk with counterparty credit risk, particularly if the seller may fail when the protected borrower is distressed.
Pricing equates expected discounted contractual cash flows under a risk-neutral measure, calibrated to traded bonds and derivatives rather than substituting historical default frequencies. To make this concrete, suppose the risk-neutral default intensity and discount factor are deterministic, fractional recovery is fixed, and premiums are continuous. Survival is . A notional- protection leg pays at default, so its value is . Premium at annual rate has value . A zero-upfront par swap therefore has the continuous-premium credit-default swap spreadFor constant intensity this reduces exactly to in this simplified model. Actual discrete premium dates and premium accrued at default change the premium leg; stochastic recovery, discounting and counterparty losses change the expectations. A quoted spread thus cannot universally be read as a physical default probability. Default-risk premiums and other market effects enter the calibrated pricing measure.
A structural alternative is the Merton model. If firm assets at debt maturity are and promised debt is , equity pays and debt pays . Under the model's diffusion assumptions, debt value is consequently the discounted face value less a put on firm assets. This derives credit prices from asset value, volatility and capital structure, while the simple model allows default only at the debt maturity. Intensity models instead calibrate a default-arrival law directly to market credit prices. Neither approach removes model risk in recovery, dependence or calibration, and incomplete credit markets need not select a unique pricing measure. A useful credit hedge and a fair derivative price both depend on the actual cash-flow and default specifications, not the product label alone.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 32 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For the Brownian first-passage time to a line, set and choose , so . The Exponential martingale for Brownian motion , stopped at , obeysThe optional stopping theorem at the bounded time gives expectation one. The contribution from is at most , and tends to zero. Taking therefore yieldsLetting shows that the hitting probability is one for and for ; in the latter case the hitting-time law has mass at infinity.
To derive the finite-time linear-boundary Brownian first-passage distribution, put . This is Brownian motion with drift , and the event is . For driftless Brownian motion, the Brownian reflection principle says that the joint endpoint density on this event equals the normal density when and the reflected density when , where . The constant-drift change of measure weights these densities by . Thus the crossing probability isCompleting the square gives respectively and . Substituting provesThe density weighting follows directly from the Exponential martingale for Brownian motion, or the Girsanov theorem, on the fixed finite horizon; it does not require eventual hitting.
For the barrier digital call, under the risk-neutral measure in the Black-Scholes model,Assume , put and . The upper stock barrier is reached exactly when reaches . The payment is at the fixed maturity , not at the random hitting time. Hence its price isIf , use the deterministic path instead: the value is if that path reaches by , and zero otherwise. The nondegenerate formula concerns the usual positive-volatility model.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 32 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Assume , and sufficient regularity to use the Itô formula. Under the physical measure write and let the bank account be . If is a self-financing portfolio with stock units and bank-account units, thenThe Itô formula gives . Equating diffusion terms forces ; equating drifts and eliminating gives the Black-Scholes equationConversely, if this equation holds, take and . The same comparison shows , so the constructed portfolio is self-financing. This is a local replication equivalence for smooth functions on the state space; global admissibility and a terminal condition specify a unique economically admissible claim price.
With continuous stock-dividend yield , holding stock units earns in addition to their price changes. A self-financing portfolio reinvests that income, soThe same diffusion comparison gives , and the drift comparison yields the Black-Scholes equation with continuous stock dividendsUnder the risk-neutral measure, the ex-dividend stock consequently has drift , while cash is discounted at .
For the last claim, distinguish the terminal payoff function from a time-dependent price. Put . The price with yield is , with a standard normal random variable. In a no-dividend model with interest rate , the stock-transition law is identical but its discount factor is . Thus, whenever the payoff expectation is finite, the dividend-yield discount shift givesEquivalently substitute this expression in the dividend equation: , and the equation reduces exactly to the no-dividend Black-Scholes equation with rate , with the same terminal data.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 32 6 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A Gaussian one-factor short-rate model is most naturally specified under a chosen risk-neutral measure , not by using a physical drift unaltered in a pricing formula. The Vasicek model hasIts explicit solution is . It is a Markov process, and its conditional mean and variance are and . Hence all finite-dimensional distributions are Gaussian. The model permits negative rates; Gaussianity does not enforce their positivity.
The unit zero-coupon bond price is . Write and . Stochastic integration of the explicit solution givesThis Gaussian variable has variance . Evaluating its exponential moment gives exponential-affine bond pricingFor example, , which gives the displayed expression by direct simplification. The term structure of interest rates is therefore analytically tractable, and bond-price changes are driven by the current short rate alone.
The Hull-White model replaces the drift by with deterministic . The same calculation givesThis retains the one-factor Gaussian and Markov structure while allowing an exact initial-curve fit through . If is the initial instantaneous forward rate and , differentiating the bond formula shows thatThus calibration flexibility is separated from stochastic mean reversion. Time-dependent calibration generally destroys time stationarity even though the state remains Markov. In the time-homogeneous Vasicek case, a stationary initialization is independent of future increments; its covariance is . A fixed initial short rate does not give a stationary process.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 34 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A useful finite-horizon form of the Girsanov theorem is as follows. Let be a Brownian motion and an adapted, progressively measurable process with almost surely. Suppose its stochastic exponentialis a true martingale with mean one. The Novikov condition is a sufficient condition. Under the equivalent probability measure , the process is a Brownian motion.
For the proof sketch, the Itô formula gives . Integration by parts cancels the drift in , since from cancels . After localization, the Bayes formula for conditional expectation makes a continuous local martingale under . Its quadratic variation is still , because adding a finite-variation process does not change quadratic variation. One can see the Brownian conclusion directly: for real , the Itô formula makes a local martingale. Its modulus is bounded on the fixed horizon, so it is a true martingale. ThusThis is the conditional characteristic function of a centered normal distribution with variance , independent of the past. Continuity and these independent normal increments give the defining properties of Brownian motion.
Now put and , the standard normal distribution function. At zero drift the endpoint density of paths staying below isIndeed, reflect the portion of a path after its first hitting time of . By continuity and the independent symmetric Brownian motion increments after this stopping time, reflection preserves its probability law and maps a crossing path ending at to a path ending at . This subtracts exactly from the unrestricted endpoint density; it is the Brownian reflection principle.
Taking the constant drift tilt in the Girsanov theorem makes under have the same law as under . Therefore the desired finite-horizon maximum of Brownian motion with drift has probabilityCompleting squares gives and . HenceThe maximum has no atom at a positive level, so strict and weak barrier inequalities agree. This also follows from continuity of the displayed distribution function. At the formula reduces to .
For the up-and-out power claim, write and use the risk-neutral measure for the Black-Scholes model, under whichwith . The barrier survives exactly when . Its risk-neutral pricing value isThe factor inside the expectation is a mean-one Exponential martingale for Brownian motion. Under the probability tilted by it, is a Brownian motion, so the barrier process has drift . Applying the preceding survival formula yieldsAs , the bracket tends to one and the price becomes the discounted second moment . As , it tends to zero. If , use the deterministic path instead: the price is when , and zero otherwise. At , with , the price is simply .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 34 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write , and specify the physical Black-Scholes model as , with constant and bank rate . The physical drift is needed for an expected utility calculation; a pricing model specified only under a risk-neutral measure does not determine the investor's preferences over risky positions. PutHere is the market price of risk, is the density of the risk-neutral measure , and is the state-price density. The Girsanov theorem makes a Brownian motion under .
For a dollar holding in the stock and consumption rate , the portfolio wealth equation isSince , integration by parts gives the useful deflated wealth equation with consumptionFor strategies with a true deflated gain martingale, terminal wealth and consumption obey the state-price budget constraintFor nonnegative wealth and consumption, the admissibility condition can instead give a budget inequality; increasing utilities use the full budget at an optimum. Conversely, suitable integrable payoff and consumption plans with this budget are financeable in the Brownian complete market. To construct the strategy, setBy the Brownian martingale representation theorem, write . The required dollar stock holding is ; substitution in the deflated gain equation verifies financing. Remaining wealth goes into the bank account. For square-integrable data the representation holds directly, and localization handles the customary integrable admissible data.
First take no consumption. For an increasing strictly concave differentiable utility function whose marginal derivative can be inverted, let . Choose so thatThis candidate is not merely a first-order guess. The concave supporting-tangent inequality gives, pointwise,Taking expectations and using the budget proves for every feasible competitor. Finance the optimizer by its risk-neutral pricing value , using the preceding representation to find the holdings.
For a merely concave differentiable utility function, the general formulation is to select from the maximizers of over its wealth domain, and choose the multiplier to satisfy the budget. If increasing utility is not assumed, the equality-budget multiplier may have either sign; the positive-multiplier inverse formula above is for increasing utility. Flat portions allow multiple maximizers; boundaries require one-sided inequalities rather than equality of marginal derivatives. Existence of a multiplier, integrability and an admissible maximizer must be checked. Concavity alone does not guarantee a well-posed problem: with unrestricted dollar positions, linear utility and permits unbounded expected terminal wealth. The explicit utilities below satisfy the needed conditions in their stated domains.
For exponential utility on , and . ThereforeThe budget is equivalently , since . Under , , giving . HenceMatching the Brownian coefficient of with gives the finite-horizon exponential-utility portfolioHold shares and invest in the bank account. This is a dollar amount, not a fixed wealth fraction. The Gaussian exponential formula also gives the optimal expected utilityThis calculation uses unrestricted wealth and an admissibility class permitting the displayed Gaussian terminal wealth, with integrable deflated gains and the relevant exponential moment. A nonnegative-wealth constraint would change the optimizer; no such constraint is imposed on this exponential-utility example.
For both terminal and running utility function, choose and a nonnegative adapted consumption rate to maximize subject to the combined budget. Pointwise maximization of and gives, for interior strictly concave cases,Apply the concave supporting-tangent inequality to and to at every time, then integrate and take expectations. The difference in objectives is at most times the difference in budget expenditures, which is nonpositive. This proves optimality, not just the marginal conditions. The financing value isThe question's consumption rate is denoted here to keep it distinct from interest-rate notation.
For logarithmic utility with , , assume and positive wealth and consumption. The marginal conditions and budget giveEach state-price-weighted payment is deterministic, so conditional valuation immediately gives . Put . Since the Itô formula gives , this value satisfiesComparison with the wealth equation verifies the complete finite-horizon logarithmic investment and consumption strategy:Thus the optimal share holding is , and the remaining value is in the bank account; borrowing or shorting is allowed if that value or the stock holding is negative. Terminal wealth is positive and consumption is positive throughout. Finally , so the optimal objective, if desired explicitly, isFinite-horizon lognormal moments ensure the budget and expected utilities are finite, completing the feasibility and optimality checks.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 34 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let denote the time- price of a zero-coupon bond paying one at maturity , with . Information available at is the sigma-algebra in the market filtration. For a curve differentiable in maturity, the instantaneous forward rate and its diagonal short rate areThe last identity follows by integrating the maturity derivative and using . The continuous-time bank account reinvesting at the short rate is , and its reciprocal is the discount factor. Modelling forward rates means specifying a random maturity-indexed curve with an evolution consistent with the same pricing measure for every bond. The expectation below is under that money-market risk-neutral measure, not an unspecified physical measure.
For fixed maturity , if is a true martingale on , its terminal value is . ConsequentlyConversely, this representation gives , a conditional-expectation martingale by the tower property. For example, for , conditioning the right side on returns . These claims assume . A positive discounted local martingale alone need not equal the conditional expectation of its terminal value, so the word “martingale” cannot be weakened without an extra integrability argument.
In the Vasicek model, the Brownian motion and coefficients in must be understood under this pricing measure. Multiplying by and integrating gives, conditionally on ,Assume first , and put and . Integrating the explicit solution over yieldsThe interchange of the stochastic integrals is justified by their deterministic square-integrable kernels on the finite triangular domain; equivalently approximate the kernels by step functions, interchange finite sums, and pass to the limit using the Itô isometry. The last integral conditionally has a centered normal distribution independent of , with varianceA deterministic Brownian integral is Gaussian because its step approximations are sums of independent normal increments; their variances converge by the Itô isometry. Completing the square in the normal density proves for a normal variable of mean and variance . Hence the zero-coupon bond price is exponential-affine:An equivalent familiar form isAt , both coefficients are zero and the bond value is one. These formulas are valid for negative as well as positive nonzero on finite horizons, though a genuinely mean-reverting Vasicek model has . For , direct integration gives , andAll the exponential moments used above are finite, so the prices defined by the conditional expectation do give true discounted martingales.
To fit an initial bond curve, let its observed prices be positive, satisfy , and have a sufficiently smooth instantaneous forward rate . Set ; this compatibility is forced by the infinitesimal-maturity bond price. Replace by a deterministic function , with , so thatIts mean satisfies , . The variance of the integrated rate remains , since changing deterministic drift does not change the centered Gaussian process. ThereforeThe required mean is consequently . Solve its mean equation for :Combining the last two terms gives the explicit Hull-White model calibration in the question's parameter convention:With , the specified mean solves the same linear differential equation and initial condition as the model mean, so it is the actual mean. The resulting model forward curve equals ; integrating and using proves for every maturity. If the drift is instead written , its calibration parameter is , not itself.
The printed allowance of arbitrary constants needs a qualification for this final claim. If , replacing by changes no coefficient at all: regardless of . Its initial curve is fixed at . With , the compatible smooth observed curve is already a counterexample to the unconditional fitting claim. Thus arbitrary compatible smooth positive initial curves can be fitted by the stated replacement when ; it cannot fit arbitrary curves when . In that degenerate case one can instead introduce an independent deterministic drift in , choosing to recover the desired initial curve. Likewise an externally fixed is incompatible with exact fitting, and an arbitrary nonsmooth set of prices need not define the differentiable forward curve assumed in the model.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 35 4 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let denote the strike, , and suppose , , and . Under the Black-Scholes model and the risk-neutral measure, is normal withApplying risk-neutral valuation to the European call option payoff givesUse , whose differential is precisely the normal density times . The threshold is , soEquivalently, rescale the tail interval to obtain on .
For independent uniform inputs, the Monte Carlo estimator is . It is unbiased, converges by the strong law of large numbers, and has variance . The payoff has finite second moment because the lognormal stock has finite moments. Its estimated standard error is the sample standard deviation divided by .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 35 5 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The unit zero-coupon bond pays one at maturity. Its risk-neutral valuation therefore isNo particular rate coefficients were specified, so this expectation is the general answer; evaluating it further requires a chosen one-factor short-rate model.
For the alternative derivation let be the bank discount factor. For an integrable discounted payoff, pricing giveswhich is a martingale by the tower property of conditional expectation. For a payoff determined by the Markov rate state, this conditional expectation is represented by the indicated pricing function. A path-dependent claim requires an appropriately enlarged state, as in part (c). Now has finite variation. Applying Itô formula and the product rule under the risk-neutral measure, whose rate drift is , yieldsUnder the smoothness and integrability conditions used above, the martingale has zero finite-variation drift. The bracket therefore vanishes, giving againFor the bond the terminal condition is . This argument also shows why stochastic discounting remains inside the conditional expectation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Take a riskless gross return per period and a stock whose independent multiplicative moves are and , with physical up probability . Assume . With up moves by date ,A self-financing portfolio chooses each stock holding from information available before the next move, and invests the remainder in the bank account. At any node the two possible next payoffs can be matched by two holdings because . Backward induction therefore makes the binomial market complete.
The unique risk-neutral probability of an up move is determined by the discounted-stock martingale equation:The risk-neutral measure assigns product probabilities to the successive moves. A path with up moves has physical probability and pricing probability . Its Radon-Nikodym derivative is thereforeSince , eliminate to obtain the requested terminal-price expression:The pricing density depends only on the terminal stock price even though different paths to that price have different intermediate histories.
For , a nonnegative terminal wealth with initial cost satisfiesThe utility function has derivative . Put . Its first-order condition makes proportional to , so . Choosing to satisfy the pricing budget constraint gives the binomial power-utility terminal wealthAll states have positive probability and the state space is finite, so this payoff is positive, integrable and attainable. The normalizing constant is explicit: independence givesCombining these two formulas with the terminal-price expression for gives entirely as a function of .
To prove global optimality, strict concavity gives . Because , the expectation of the right side is zero for any other payoff satisfying the same pricing budget constraint. Equality requires almost surely. Backward replication supplies its self-financing strategy, so this static optimum is attainable by trading. If and terminal wealth must be nonnegative, the only feasible terminal wealth is zero. For , the density is one and the optimizer is the riskless wealth .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
On a finite horizon , let be a standard -dimensional Brownian motion and let be a predictable process with almost surely. Suppose the stochastic exponentialis a true martingale with . The Novikov condition is a sufficient condition. The Girsanov theorem says that under ,Because , the two measures are equivalent on the terminal sigma-algebra.
For the proof sketch, Itô formula gives . Apply the product rule to . Its finite-variation term is cancelled by . After localization the product is a martingale under , and the conditional change-of-measure formula makes a local martingale under . Adding finite variation leaves its covariations unchanged: . The Lévy characterization of multidimensional Brownian motion completes the proof. Localization is essential if the integrands are not bounded; the true-martingale hypothesis on permits the final measure change.
For the deal, write and use constant interest rate , volatility and no stock dividends. Under the risk-neutral measure, the Black-Scholes model isFor example this follows from the preceding theorem with when the physical stock drift is . The delivered shares have terminal cash value , so its initial value isThe factor must be included: the deal is a stock delivery, not a cash payment of the random number of shares.
Use the stock-numeraire measure in the Black-Scholes model, whose density isThe Girsanov theorem gives as Brownian motion under . ThereforeThe discrete geometric average under the stock-numeraire measure has normally distributed logarithm withThe last identity uses the printed descending order of sampling times. Each is the minimum in exactly ordered pairs. In particular .
Assume the ordinary positive deal parameters and put , . The change of numeraire gives , where . Split the integral at . Completing the square in times the normal probability density givesThus the stock-delivery option with a geometric average has valueHere is the standard normal distribution function. Delivery time does not enter separately once the sampling dates are fixed: the stock numeraire cancels the final stock factor and discounting. As a check, for one sample at , the payment is and the formula becomes the value of shares plus a put on their terminal value. If the value is ; if the value is .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A self-financing portfolio changes its holdings using only its existing wealth. If it holds shares and units of a traded bond or bank account , its value obeys the gain identityThe changes in holdings do not add or withdraw capital. Set , , so , and let , with . Write and suppress the arguments of the smooth holdings .
Differentiate :The Itô formula minus the proposed portfolio gains givesUniqueness of the local-martingale and finite-variation decomposition shows that self-financing requires . Since has full support on for each , smoothness gives the corresponding functional identity for every positive , and continuity extends it to the interval endpoints. ThusDifferentiating this identity once more in gives , so . Substitute both identities into the drift condition to obtainConversely these equations give , and zero drift and diffusion in the displayed gain difference. They therefore prove the claimed self-financing conditions for smooth stock and bond holdings in both directions.
Using in the gain identity and setting , self-financing impliesThis is the Black-Scholes equation, independent of the physical drift . Conversely, if a smooth satisfies it, define its delta hedge byThe preceding Itô formula verifies that these holdings are self-financing.
For prescribed arbitrary holdings, the value equation alone is insufficient. The corrected equivalence is the Black-Scholes value equation needs delta-compatible holdings: a specified portfolio is self-financing if and only if its value solves the equation and . Indeed , , satisfies the value equation but its proposed gains are , which have nonzero Brownian part while . Thus the printed final equivalence is valid as an existence assertion for the delta hedge, not for every decomposition of the same value. No change to the valid two holdings equations is needed.
With continuous underlying stock dividends, the stock's gain is , so self-financing becomes . Under the risk-neutral measure the ex-dividend stock drift is . Matching its diffusion still gives , and matching its gain drift gives the Black-Scholes equation with continuous stock dividendsOnly the coefficient of changes. The discount term remains, because the claim is financed at the bank rate; there is no separate source term for a dividend paid by the claim itself. The dividends here are paid by the underlying stock.