Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the centered normal probability density with variance , and take . For a zero-drift Brownian motion , reflect the path after its first hit of . The Brownian reflection principle identifies endpoints on paths that have hit with endpoints . Thus the endpoint density on paths staying below is for .
To introduce drift , use the Girsanov theorem with likelihood . The coordinate path then has the law of . Since the likelihood depends only on the endpoint, the joint event in question has probabilityCompleting the two squares givesConsequently the joint endpoint and maximum law for drifted Brownian motion isThe endpoint and the maximum have no relevant atom at the boundary, so the same integral includes .
For the down-and-in claim, use non-dividend-paying Black-Scholes model dynamics under the risk-neutral measure. Put andLet be the first time the stock reaches . If , continuity ensures , so these terminal values contribute the payoff . For , lower-barrier reflection followed by the same exponential tilt gives the endpoint density on paths that have hit the barrier:Indeed at zero drift the reflected density is , and multiplying by gives the displayed expression.
Thus the remaining, undiscounted payoff expectation isSet andThen , , and is equivalent to . The integration variable has the ordinary terminal log-price density. Adding the first contribution therefore proves the static terminal-payoff representation of a down-and-in claim:This holds for nonnegative measurable payoffs, and for signed payoffs whenever the expectations are absolutely integrable. It is an equality of prices, not equality of pathwise terminal payments.
For the call, write for the ordinary European call option value, with remaining lifetime and strike . Before activation take current spot . The first term in is zero because the call pays nothing below . The second term reduces to , since . The homogeneity therefore gives the inactive down-and-in claim valueAt its value is , as required by activation. Its pre-activation option delta, however, has boundary limitwhereas the active contract's delta hedge holds shares. The stock holding consequently jumps byThis jump is strictly positive, even for negative interest rates. To verify that there is no exceptional cancellation, put and . The density for log-price paths killed at the lower barrier isThe down-and-out claim is the ordinary call minus . Differentiate its value at : the bracket vanishes there and its derivative is . Consequently its derivative with respect to the spot at isThis derivative is exactly the displayed delta jump. Thus on reaching the barrier before maturity the number of shares changes discontinuously. The portfolio value remains continuous; the bank position changes to finance the share adjustment. Hitting precisely at maturity has probability zero and does not alter this conclusion. This is the delta jump at activation of a down-and-in call.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A one-factor short-rate model uses a single scalar state, normally the short rate itself. Under the physical probability measure writeThe second process is the continuous-time bank account. Specifying the physical diffusion alone does not determine bond prices: it must be accompanied by the market price of risk , or equivalently by pricing-measure dynamics. If the Girsanov theorem applies to the likelihood , then under the risk-neutral measureChanging measure alters drift, not quadratic variation. The coefficients need conditions for a nonexplosive solution and for the relevant discounted prices and measure-change density to be true martingales.
A unit zero-coupon bond maturing at has priceThe Markov property makes current time and rate sufficient state variables. Apply Itô formula to . Its drift must vanish, giving the short-rate bond pricing equationConversely, under the appropriate boundary and integrability conditions the Feynman-Kac formula identifies its solution with the displayed discounted expectation. For a terminal rate-dependent payoff , the same equation has terminal condition instead of one. A coupon bond is a sum of such unit-bond prices weighted by the coupon payments.
The common market price of risk can also be derived from trading, instead of being introduced arbitrarily for each maturity. Under the physical measure a bond's diffusion exposure is and its excess drift above bank financing is . For two nondegenerate traded bonds, combine their holdings to cancel their Brownian exposure. Absence of arbitrage requires that combination to earn the bank rate; hence their excess-drift-to-exposure ratios must coincide. Calling that common ratio yields the pricing equation with for every maturity. A derivative is then hedged locally by holding units of a nondegenerate bond and financing the remaining value through the bank account. Their Brownian exposures agree, and substituting both pricing equations proves the drift gain identity. This is short-rate diffusion hedging; it requires , rather than a bare assertion that one factor automatically gives completeness everywhere.
The entire yield curve is generated consistently from these bond prices. The continuously compounded yield and the instantaneous forward rate areThese encode different summaries: the yield averages the forward rate over the remaining lifetime. Bond prices must satisfy and be positive; they need not be below one in models permitting negative rates.
The Vasicek model has constant pricing dynamicsSolving the linear equation gives . Consequently, with and ,This conditional normal random variable has variance . Its normal exponential moment yieldsEvaluating the elementary integral givesThis explicit form makes estimation and valuation convenient. The rate is Gaussian, its conditional mean reverts to , and its long-run variance is . Its disadvantage, when nonnegative rates are desired, is a positive probability of negative rates.
The CIR model replaces constant volatility by square-root volatility:The standard solution stays nonnegative. The Feller positivity condition for the CIR model is in this parameterization; with a positive initial rate it makes zero inaccessible. Below this threshold zero can be reached, although the process does not cross into negative rates. For an affine diffusion bond pricing ansatz , substitution into the bond equation and matching its constant and rate coefficients givesWriting , factor the quadratic in the first equation and integrate from ; integrating the second equation then gives the CIR bond pricing formulasThe square-root form produces an affine term structure while respecting nonnegative rates. These parameters are pricing-measure parameters; historical mean-reversion estimates alone do not determine them without a risk-premium specification.
Both preceding constant-parameter models constrain the family of initial curves. The Hull-White model allows a deterministic time-dependent drift:For a smooth desired initial forward curve , its exact forward-curve fit in the Hull-White model is obtained by takingTo derive this rather than merely assert calibration, write , where , . The conditional Gaussian-integral calculation at time zero givesso its forward curve is . Choose . Differentiating this shift and adding gives exactly the displayed . Thus for every maturity, while and govern the stochastic fluctuations. This Gaussian model still allows negative rates.
Finally, one-factor models are economical and often give explicit bond prices, but their single Brownian driver is restrictive. Bond diffusion exposures give the instantaneous covariance matrix , of rank at most one. Nondegenerate maturity changes are instantaneously perfectly correlated, with correlation or , though their finite-horizon correlations need not equal one. A single factor therefore cannot independently describe level, slope and curvature shocks to the whole yield curve. Multiple factors or a full forward-rate model offer greater flexibility. A valid one-factor model must specify the pricing drift, fit the initial curve to the required accuracy, and handle boundary and martingale conditions; naming a rate diffusion alone is not a complete pricing model.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 48 2 Solution 2026-10-14
Substitute the nonzero product into the Black-Scholes equation with continuous stock dividends and divide by on intervals where it is nonzero. The result isThe left side depends only on time and the right side only on spot, so both equal a constant . ThusThese are the separated solutions of the Black-Scholes equation. The zero solution is included separately, so division loses no relevant case.
For the unheaded parity request, the terminal difference of the power-call and power-put payoffs is . Under the risk-neutral measure, , where . The Gaussian exponential moment gives with . Discounting the difference proves power put-call parity:For this is the familiar dividend-adjusted put-call parity, .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 48 3 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let , and . The chain rule gives and . Also , so . The killing term cancels, leavingThis is the explicit log-price scheme for local-volatility pricing equation. Under the risk-neutral measure, the corresponding log-price Itô formula givesThe logarithmic coordinate removes the stock-price factors from the diffusion coefficient, but retains the spatial variation of local volatility.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 48 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An instantaneous forward rate curve determines the unit-face-value zero-coupon bond through and . Integrating in maturity givesThe diagonal is the short rate, , and the continuous-time bank account has when . Therefore the discounted bond price martingale has valueUnder the risk-neutral measure of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model, sufficiently integrable discounted bond prices are true martingales; without that integrability their stochastic dynamics initially establish a local martingale.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 39 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Subtract the boundary slope from the Brownian motion: . Then is the first-passage time of to the fixed level . The zero-drift Brownian reflection principle givesHere is the standard normal distribution function. To change the drift to , use the Girsanov theorem on each finite horizon, with density . On , conditional expectation at the stopped time gives , because the density is a true martingale. Since , the drifted Brownian first-passage density is consequentlyThere may be additional mass at infinite hitting time; the displayed density only describes finite passage. With , apply the given zero-drift Brownian first-passage Laplace transform:The zero-discount limit is for and for , so the hitting probability is less than one precisely when the line moves away with positive slope.
For a direct verification of the linear-boundary Brownian first-passage distribution, defineBoth terms tend to zero as . Let be the standard normal density. The identityfollows by expanding the two squares. Differentiating the two normal probabilities then givesSince this is the previously derived hitting density and both distribution functions start at zero,This proof applies to every real , including the defective distribution when .
For the barrier digital put, use the dividend-free Black-Scholes model with constant interest rate and spot volatility . Under the risk-neutral measure,Set andReaching the barrier is equivalent to reaching . The contingent claim pays one only on the survival event . Risk-neutral pricing therefore givesThis is a path-survival price, not the price of a terminal digital put option. Continuity of the stock paths and the absence of an atom in the finite-horizon maximum imply that alternative touching conventions change no price. As , the value tends to ; as , it tends to zero. Both checks agree with the survival interpretation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 39 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Take a non-dividend-paying stock with physical dynamics and continuous-time bank account . Write and assume the candidate claim price is before maturity, with enough growth control for the hedge to be admissible. The terminal condition is .
The Itô formula gives the claim's price changeA self-financing portfolio worth with shares has bank-account value . Its gain isTo replicate the claim, the Brownian coefficients must agree, forcing the delta hedge . Equating the remaining drift coefficients cancels the physical drift and yieldsThe cancellation explains why the Black-Scholes equation contains the interest rate, not the physical stock drift. Conversely, if an admissible solution of this equation is given, holdings in the stock and in the bank account have value and gains exactly . They are therefore a self-financing portfolio replicating the terminal payoff. Absence of arbitrage forces the claim to have this price. Merely decomposing the current value into arbitrary holdings would not justify self-financing; the gain identity and delta hedge are essential.
Now suppose the claim holder receives the cash rate before . The price is the ex-dividend value, so its total gain is . The replicating portfolio pays the same amounts out of its wealth, with no external injections. Thus its gain identity isAgain the Brownian coefficients force . Comparing drifts now gives the Black-Scholes equation with claim dividends:In particular the cash-flow source has a positive sign in the left-hand side. It is not an underlying-stock dividend yield and does not replace the drift by a dividend-adjusted drift.
For another justification, under the risk-neutral measure , discount the claim's cum-dividend gain. The Itô formula shows thatexactly when the displayed equation holds. Subject to the usual integrability making this a true martingale, conditional expectation at maturity givesPositive interim payments therefore add positive value, which also checks the source sign. For instance, a constant payment rate and zero terminal payoff have price , interpreted as at ; substitution satisfies .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 39 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let , , , and . Use a dividend-free Black-Scholes model with constant interest rate . The terminal payoff is assumed independent of the parameters being varied. In addition to twice differentiability, impose enough integrability to differentiate the pricing formula; for example, of polynomial growth suffice. Twice differentiability alone is not enough: the smooth payoff has infinite expectation under every nondegenerate lognormal distribution.
Under the risk-neutral measure , future stock values conditional on have the formClaim replication, or equivalently the martingale property of discounted value in the complete market, givesThe replicating strategy holds the option delta shares and bank-account value . No physical drift parameter appears: the Girsanov theorem replaces the physical drift by under the pricing measure, and the replication argument cancels it directly. The risk-neutral pricing operator is linear in the payoff and preserves pointwise payoff inequalities.
Here is a verification of the Black-Scholes equation using the integral itself. Differentiation in spot givesDifferentiating with respect to givesFor , the Gaussian integration by parts identity yieldsSubstitution cancels the term and provesSince , this is precisely the Black-Scholes equation. As , and growth control permits passage to the limit, giving . The delta hedge then supplies the admissible replicating gains under the same regularity assumptions.
The Black-Scholes parameter sensitivities describe the dependence on the model parameters without assuming a particular payoff. If is increasing, then . If is convex, then , so its price is convex in spot. The option gamma measures the response of the option delta to spot changes.
For the interest rate, the distribution of the future stock also changes with , so looking only at discounting gives the wrong general answer. Differentiation gives the option rhoThus a short bank-account position gives positive rate sensitivity, while a positive bank-account position gives negative rate sensitivity. For a cash payoff the result is negative; for the payoff it is zero.
For spot volatility, differentiate the lognormal multiplier and then use Gaussian integration by parts:Consequently a convex payoff has nonnegative option vega. This monotonicity can also be understood by a mean-preserving increase of dispersion in the discounted stock. Strict positivity requires nonzero curvature seen with positive probability; an affine payoff has zero option vega.
Time enters through the remaining maturity . Holding spot fixed, the Black-Scholes equation givesUnder the conventional assumption , a convex payoff and a short bond position imply . The inequality is strict if , or if with positive volatility. Thus the price at fixed stock value is nonincreasing in calendar time, and nondecreasing in maturity, under these hypotheses. It is not a claim that the realized stochastic price path decreases: that path still has Brownian exposure .
The printed conclusion needs the nonnegative-rate qualification; it is false for arbitrary negative rates. For , the twice-differentiable convex payoff hasThis is an exact counterexample, not a failure of the pricing formula. Also, with and an affine payoff, “decreasing” can only mean nonincreasing. Without payoff monotonicity or the specified bond-position sign, neither the spot nor rate nor time sensitivity has a universal sign. Any additional payoff parameter, such as a strike, is differentiated through ; pointwise payoff ordering, rather than a generic parameter rule, determines its price effect.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 39 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An interest rate model must describe a whole term structure of interest rates, not just one future scalar rate. Let be the time- price of a unit zero-coupon bond maturing at . For a sufficiently regular maturity curve, define the instantaneous forward rate and short rate bySince , integration givesHere is the continuous-time bank account. Thus modelling the two-parameter field determines both the bonds and the discounting account. A Gaussian random field means that every finite collection of its values is jointly Gaussian; merely making each individual forward rate normally distributed is insufficient.
A useful arbitrage-free construction works under a money-market risk-neutral measure . Take independent Brownian motions , deterministic coefficient sequences , and a deterministic initial forward curve . With the coefficients viewed as vectors in a separable Hilbert space , writeFor infinitely many factors, the last term means the limit of , not an assumption that the infinite vector of Brownian motions is itself -valued. Require and the maturity/time regularity needed for stochastic integration and exchange of integrals. Deterministic drift and volatility make this a Gaussian forward-rate field.
The field covariance is determined byFor every finite set of maturities, must be positive semidefinite. A one-factor model has rank-one instantaneous covariance, while additional or infinitely many factors permit richer correlations along the yield curve. Equivalently one can drive the curve with a maturity-correlated Brownian field satisfying . A Brownian sheet gives the exampleMultiplication by deterministic maturity-dependent amplitudes, or deterministic increasing changes of the two sheet coordinates, gives further Gaussian covariance structures. A covariance specification alone is not sufficient: the forward drift must also obey absence of arbitrage.
To derive that drift restriction, putDifferentiate the moving lower endpoint in to obtainThe Itô formula therefore givesDiscounted bond prices must be martingales under . Their drift vanishes precisely when . Differentiating in maturity gives the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model restrictionFor scalar amplitudes multiplying a field with covariance kernel , this becomes . The extra maturity correlation factor cannot in general be dropped.
The complete Gaussian specification is consequentlyIts mean and covariance follow immediately from deterministic integration and the Itô isometry. The initial yield curve is an input, so fitting initial bond prices requires choosing rather than changing a few scalar parameters. With the displayed drift, the discounted bond obeysOn finite horizons, deterministic square-integrable bond volatility gives an expectation-one stochastic exponential, hence a true discounted bond price martingale. This supplies an arbitrage-free pricing model for admissible portfolios in any finite collection of these bonds. Under a physical measure, a market price of risk vector changes the drift: if , then the physical forward drift is . Historical mean changes must therefore not be inserted in place of the risk-neutral drift restriction. Gaussianity under both measures additionally requires suitable deterministic drift changes; state-dependent risk premiums need not preserve Gaussianity under the physical measure.
There is also a useful general consistency test for a proposed Gaussian field beyond this independent-increment construction. DefineIn the filtration generated by a Gaussian field, conditional distributions of such linear functionals are Gaussian. For , the martingale requirement is therefore exactlyThis follows by taking the conditional exponential moment and equating it to . It constrains both the deterministic mean and the covariance-induced conditional mean. Matching only unconditional discounted bond expectations does not suffice. For the Brownian-field construction, the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model restriction realizes this consistency condition through local drift cancellation.
Gaussian structure makes risk-neutral pricing particularly tractable. As a finite-factor example, take the Vasicek model under :Solving this Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process gives, for ,Hence, with and , the conditional Gaussian integral hasThe exponential moment identity for a normal variable now gives the zero-coupon bond price , whereThis outlines the derivation of the familiar exponential-affine form without assuming a deterministic future discount rate. More general forward-field models need not reduce to a finite-dimensional Markov short-rate process.
For another application, a call at time on a unit maturity- bond, with and strike , is priced under the T-forward measure, using as numéraire. The bond-price ratio is a martingale under that measure and has deterministic volatility . It is consequently lognormal, with integrated log-varianceIntegrating the lognormal payoff gives the Gaussian bond-option formulaAt use . The same idea prices other suitable Gaussian-rate derivatives through forward measures and normal exponential moments.
The attractions are exact initial-curve fitting, explicit covariance control across maturities, and tractable bond and option prices. The limitations are also structural: Gaussian short rates and instantaneous forward rates generally can be negative; finite-factor specifications restrict maturity correlations; and deterministic volatilities cannot reproduce arbitrary stochastic changes in rate dispersion. An infinite-factor model allows richer covariance but typically leaves risks that cannot be spanned by finitely many traded bonds. Thus Gaussianity is a useful modelling choice, not by itself a guarantee of positivity, market completeness, or absence of arbitrage.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 40 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use column vectors for dollar holdings and put , and . The normalized state-price density isThe vector is the market price of risk. The density defines an equivalent risk-neutral measure, under which is Brownian motion and every stock has drift . A terminal claim with finite state-price cost is priced at . Nonsingularity of and the natural Brownian market information make this a complete market; in particular the optimal nonnegative payoff below can be replicated.
Let and . Apply the Itô formula to each log price, whose return variance is :Summing and dividing by proves the geometric stock index formulaThus , where . The factor applies to the whole bracket. The geometric average need not itself be a self-financing portfolio; its instantaneous drift is .
If is the dollar amount invested in stock , the bank account holds . The self-financing portfolio equation isEquivalently, gives . For share-holding notation replace by times the number of shares.
Static expected utility maximization uses the terminal budget . Since is an exogenous positive benchmark, differentiating in gives . An interior Lagrange multiplier for the budget therefore givesFor CRRA utility, write . Since , solving this marginal equation givesEvery positive lognormal moment is finite here, so the budget determines the constant uniquely. PutThenThis is also a sufficiency condition: concavity gives , and taking expectations and using the budget inequality proves global optimality.
To find the whole optimal process, set andSince , the moment-generating function of a normal distribution givesPricing the terminal payoff yields the explicit benchmark-relative power-utility portfolio wealthIts proportional diffusion coefficient is . Since the wealth diffusion coefficient for dollar fractions is , replication requiresUsing gives the requested fixed proportions:The drift matches the self-financing portfolio equation as well. Indeed, , so the drift of from the explicit formula isConsequently an equivalent form of the solution isThe bank account fraction is , with negative values representing borrowing. The first stock term is ordinary power-utility risk exposure, while the second hedges the random benchmark. At the logarithmic limit the benchmark term disappears, consistently with .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ii Paper 3 27I a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Under the given risk-neutral measure, the option price is . Thus is a martingale. This valuation also follows from delta hedging: cancel the Brownian exposure with units of stock, after which absence of arbitrage makes the locally riskless remainder earn .
Set . The stated Brownian martingale identity and the chain rule giveThe drift vanishes because discounted option value is a martingale. Consequently the Black-Scholes equation isFor bounded measurable payoffs, the conditional-expectation solution is smooth for ; terminal values are interpreted in the usual limiting sense at continuity points, or in the bounded measurable pricing sense.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ii Paper 3 27I b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
With continuous dividend yield , it is the discounted total gain from the stock, including dividends, that must be a martingale. The ex-dividend stock drift under the risk-neutral measure is therefore . Replace in the exponential representation by and repeat the chain rule. The discount rate remains , givingThe terminal payoff condition is unchanged.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 41 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let and write for the Brownian terminal density. By the Brownian reflection principle, for the reflected paths that hit and end at have terminal density . HenceThe Girsanov theorem changes zero drift into drift using the finite-horizon density . The finite-horizon maximum of Brownian motion with drift therefore has distribution functionIn the first integral term, complete the square to get a normal density with mean . In the second, substitute and complete the square with mean ; the prefactor is . Here is the standard normal distribution function, and .
Let , with real. Survival means that stays below . Tilt by ; under the tilted probability, has drift . Applying the maximum formula with drift gives the exponential terminal moment below a linear Brownian boundaryThis holds for every real . The maximum distribution has no atom at the positive barrier, so strict or weak survival inequalities give the same probability here.
For the hitting-time moment, first use drift in the maximum formula and take the complementary probability:If and , their standard normal densities satisfy . Differentiating the two terms, with and , yields the drifted Brownian first-passage densityIts total mass need not be one, because the upward-sloping boundary may never be reached.
For , put . Multiplication by gives . Integrating to produces truncated discounted Brownian first passage, with negative discount rate allowed when the square root remains real:This includes the equality case , where it becomes . The expression integrates only finite hitting times up to ; no value is assigned to an exponential at an infinite hitting time.
For the cash-at-hit digital call, use the risk-neutral measure in the Black-Scholes model and denote expiry by . ThenHitting corresponds to , where and . The unit-cash payment is made at the hitting time, so risk-neutral valuation discounts at that time, not at expiry. Set andThe identity on the right verifies the square-root condition even for negative interest rates. The time-zero price isThis is in pounds for the unit-pound contract. It differs from a maturity-paid digital call option, whose discounting and exercise event are different.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 41 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let , and assume the payoff has sufficient integrability for risk-neutral valuation. Under the risk-neutral measure , the Black-Scholes model has , so conditionally on ,Absence of arbitrage gives the time- priceFor a regular payoff this is the solution of the Black-Scholes equation with terminal value , and the delta hedge replicates it. Suitable limits or conditional-expectation representations extend the price formula beyond smooth terminal payoffs.
For the logarithmic stock payoff, put . Its Gaussian moment-generating function is , while differentiating that moment gives . ThereforeThe option delta is , and the second stock derivative is . The Black-Scholes equation can also be checked directly from .
For general convex , let . For , convexity givesTaking the positive discounted expectation proves that is convex. Its derivative, where defined, is therefore nondecreasing, proving that the stock holding in the delta hedge rises weakly with the stock price. For twice differentiable , differentiation gives . For a merely convex payoff, Gaussian smoothing at and the usual growth assumptions give the same conclusion; one-sided derivatives are monotone even without smoothing. Strict increase is not implied by convexity alone: an affine payoff has constant option delta.
For the random constant Gaussian interest-rate mixture, represent the rate as , with independent standard normal variables. This independence simply represents averaging the constant-rate price function over its Gaussian parameter. Completing the square in yields the identityApply it inside the time-zero price formula:The combined normal term has variance . Define and . Then the discount factor is , and the log-price mean is . Thus the expectation is exactly the constant-parameter Black-Scholes model price with those parameters:The argument applies to nonnegative payoffs by Tonelli theorem, and to signed payoffs whenever absolute integrability justifies the expectations. It averages constant-rate prices; it does not assume a stochastic short-rate process.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 41 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use a risk-neutral measure , and let be the price at time of a zero-coupon bond paying one at its maturity . The information available at is the filtration . For positive differentiable bond prices, the instantaneous forward rate iswith . The short rate is . The continuous-time bank account is the discounting numéraire.
If is a true martingale for each fixed maturity, then its terminal value is andMultiplication by the -measurable givesConversely this conditional-expectation formula makes the discounted bond a martingale by the tower property of conditional expectation. The equivalence uses integrability and true martingales, rather than merely local martingales.
Forward-rate modelling specifies the stochastic evolution of as varies at fixed maturity. For example, with one Brownian driver, write . Differentiation of the integral representation and Itô formula give the bond's relative volatility and drift . The discounted-bond condition therefore imposesor, after differentiation in maturity, . This illustrates how the no-arbitrage condition constrains forward-rate drift.
For the Gaussian short-rate model with constant coefficients, let and fix . Future Brownian increments are independent of , givingThe last stochastic integral is Gaussian with mean zero and variance , by the Itô isometry. Its Gaussian moment-generating function therefore givesWhen and the initial rate is deterministic, the Brownian and short-rate filtrations coincide because . If , the same bond formula holds deterministically, while the asserted filtration equivalence is unnecessary.
For a deterministic drift function , the same calculation givesLet the observed initial curve be , normalized by , and define . For a differentiable initial forward curve chooseIndeed the model's initial forward rate is , so integrating it gives exactly the observed bond curve. This is forward-curve calibration of a shifted Brownian short rate, with . Every finite collection of positive bond quotes can first be fitted by a smooth positive curve; an arbitrary entire curve requires the stated smoothness or an appropriate weaker integral interpretation. The freedom is in the deterministic drift, and the initial short rate must match the initial forward rate.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 39 4 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let denote the standard normal distribution cumulative distribution function, and its density. Put . For and , defineUnder the risk-neutral measure, conditional on ,Thus . The identity for the standard Gaussian distribution probability density function givesSplit the payout according to whether the stock exceeds the floor and discount. The risk-neutral pricing process isIts discounted value is , a true martingale. Thus adding this asset preserves the equivalent martingale measure and gives no arbitrage. This is the guaranteed terminal stock floor in the Black-Scholes model. For , positivity of the stock makes the claim simply , and the price is .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 39 5 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the given risk-neutral measure, and write . Take to be classical on and continuous at its prescribed terminal value. By Itô formula and the pricing equation for a local volatility model,soThe discounted added asset is a local martingale, as is , while . Consequently is an equivalent local martingale measure for all three assets.
Here is the arbitrage argument, including the usual admissible trading strategy condition. If is the discounted wealth of a self-financing strategy, it is a stochastic integral against the discounted asset prices, plus its initial value, and hence a local martingale. Assume for a fixed , as required for an admissible trading strategy. For a localizing sequence , the stopped process is a martingale. Apply the conditional Fatou lemma to : for , continuity and the stopped martingale identity give . Thus is a supermartingale. An arbitrage would have , and positive probability of . Equivalence of makes that probability positive under , contradicting . Therefore the augmented market has no admissible arbitrage.
Nonnegativity of gives the needed price process, but does not by itself make its discounted local martingale a true martingale. If is bounded, the latter follows by bounded localization, and its price is also . The arbitrage proof above applies to the stated nonnegative classical solution without assuming that additional bound.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 ii Paper 3 29J Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A standard Brownian motion starts at zero, has continuous sample paths, and has independent increments for . The Black-Scholes model assumes a frictionless market permitting continuous, self-financing trading and short selling, a bank account at constant interest rate, and a non-dividend-paying assetwith constant coefficients and no arbitrage.
For an option price , Itô's formula gives diffusion coefficient . Holding units of the asset hedges this diffusion. The hedged portfolio has value and instantaneous gain , so no arbitrage requiresEquivalently, the risk-neutral measure makes a martingale and gives the solution . Under that measure,Put and . Then , and completing the square in the normal integral gives . Therefore the Black-Scholes formula isHere ; a zero strike has value directly.
For the forward-start call option, condition at the strike-fixing time . Given , the remaining asset-price ratio has the same lognormal law over , independently of past increments. Thus its time- value isSince , conditioning once more yieldsThe strike is random before ; inserting an unknown as a fixed strike at time zero would miss the conditioning step.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 43 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Work under the money-market risk-neutral measure, with . The zero-coupon bond price is . For this CIR model, write . The Feynman-Kac formula givesMatching the constant and linear coefficients of yieldsFor CIR bond pricing, solving this Riccati equation and integrating the scalar equation for , put and . ThenSubstitution verifies both equations and their initial conditions. The discounted candidate solves the martingale pricing equation; its boundedness on finite horizons, or Feynman-Kac formula, identifies it with the conditional expectation. The answer is . More generally the same coefficients give .
The CIR model mean reverts to and has volatility , so it remains nonnegative and its fluctuation size depends on the rate level. For positive initial rate, zero is inaccessible if ; below this threshold zero is reachable but the process remains nonnegative. Its stationary law is a gamma distribution, of shape and rate . Explicit affine bond prices and nonnegative rates are useful features. Limitations include exclusion of negative rates, restricted volatility behavior and a single stochastic factor; the time-homogeneous parameter family cannot fit an arbitrary initial term structure exactly.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 43 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
A futures contract fixes a maturity and underlying quantity, but its quoted delivery price is marked to market: gains and losses from quote changes are settled through the margin account, typically daily. A newly settled position has zero contract value; the quoted futures price is not an upfront purchase price for that position. At maturity the quote equals the spot price. In the continuous-settlement idealization, discounted futures gains must be local martingales under the money-market risk-neutral measure. Thus the quote has zero pricing-measure drift. Assuming the relevant integrability makes it a true martingale, .
This is a futures pricing formula. In contrast, an unsettled forward contract has delivery quote , where . Stochastic interest rates can make the two quotes differ. Contango means the futures quote is above spot for the maturity considered, while backwardation means it is below spot; futures curves are correspondingly described as rising or falling when comparing maturities.
For the Multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, multiplication by the matrix exponential gives , henceFor deterministic , the Gaussian distribution has mean and covarianceEquivalently , . No symmetry or invertibility of is required. This covariance can also be evaluated from a single block matrix exponential: if the upper-right block of is , then . If is random, these assertions hold conditionally on ; the unconditional law need not be Gaussian. A stationary Gaussian law exists when the eigenvalues of have positive real parts, but stability is unnecessary for the finite-time formulas.
For , the conditional mean of is and its conditional covariance is . The Gaussian exponential-moment formula therefore gives the explicit quoteIt tends to as , as required.