Confidence interval for an inverse rate 2026-10-07
For an exponential distribution with positive rate , the mean is . A confidence interval for the rate transforms to one for the mean by reversing and inverting its endpoints. The monotonic transformation preserves the coverage event; it does not give a prediction interval for one realized holding time.
For the stated critical geometric offspring law, the conditional upper tail is exactly for . Its logarithm tends to , proving an exponential distribution limit of rate one without a transform continuity theorem. The unconditional mass at zero tends to one, so survival conditioning changes the relevant limiting population scale.
For an event time with an exponential distribution of mean and an independent censoring time, let be their minimum. Memorylessness of the exponential distribution makes the conditional mean of the latent event time when it is censored. Keeping when the event is observed gives an unbiased imputed event time by the tower property of conditional expectation.
For a mixture distribution of exponential distributions, introduce one convolution state for each rate . It satisfies . Together with the survival integro-differential equation these form a constant-coefficient first-order system; applying the differential operators eliminates the convolution states. For equal mixing weights at rates one and one half, with , the result is . The original integral equation supplies initial conditions lost in elimination.
Exponential-rate maximum-likelihood estimator Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
For independent observations from the exponential distribution with rate , the log-likelihood is , soThe central limit theorem and delta method give
Exponential ridge-draft model 2026-10-07
Here is the expected number of ridge peaks per track length with sea-ice draft in . If total line density is and mean peak draft is , integration gives and . The normalized peak draft has a shifted exponential distribution. This is a model over a specified draft range, not a universal description of every ridge.
First-claim decomposition for survival probability Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
In a classical risk model, before the first claim at time , available capital is . A claim of size leaves future survival probability by the Markov property. Integrating over the independent first-arrival exponential distribution and claim density gives .
Flow-level network model Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
A flow-level model treats each document transfer as a flow whose rate depends on the current occupancy and resource capacities. With independent Poisson processes for arrivals and independent unit-mean exponential distributions for sizes, a route's total completion rate equals its allocated aggregate service.
A frozen-age approximation holds an age covariate constant at the start of each observation interval, allowing homogeneous transition probabilities to enter a panel-observed multi-state likelihood. It approximates a model with continuously changing age. Reciprocal rate calibration of mean waiting times is exact for a fixed-age exponential distribution, but not for a continuously ageing Gompertz distribution.
Gamma-exponential conjugacy Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
A gamma prior with shape and rate combined with independent observations from an exponential distribution of rate gives the posteriorUnder squared-error loss, the Bayes estimator is its posterior mean .
If has gamma distribution with shape and rate , has Poisson distribution with intensity , and the independent claim sizes have exponential distribution of mean , where , the aggregate law is . This follows by expanding its moment-generating function as .
Gaussian–exponential hierarchical colour model Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
An observed astronomical colour is the sum of a normal intrinsic colour, a nonnegative dust contribution with an exponential distribution, and normal measurement noise. With latent , and , the Gibbs sampler conditionals for are normal and those for are truncated normal distributions. A flat prior on and inverse-gamma priors on give inverse-gamma conditional updates for the two scales. Log-flat priors on both scales instead make the joint posterior improper when all , despite formally proper full conditionals at generic latent states: the marginal observed likelihood has a positive limit at either zero-scale boundary. Proper positive-scale priors restore a genuine joint posterior.
Generalized Pareto distribution 2026-10-06
For scale and shape , the generalized Pareto distribution on nonnegative excesses has cumulative distribution functionThe case is the continuous limit . Positive gives a power-law tail, zero gives an exponential distribution, and negative gives a finite upper endpoint . Its role in modelling high-threshold excesses is explained by the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem.
Geometric sum of shape-two gamma variables 2026-10-07
Let the summands have gamma distribution with shape two and rate , and let the independent positive-support geometric distribution count have parameter . Put and . The aggregate moment-generating function factors as , so it is the sum of two independent exponential distributions of rates . Its probability density function is for , nonnegative and integrating to one. This contrasts with the geometric sum of exponential variables, which is itself exponential.
Gillespie algorithm Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
The Gillespie algorithm samples an exact path of a well-mixed stochastic reaction network. At state , let ; draw a waiting time with exponential distribution of rate , choose reaction with probability , and update .
Gompertz distribution Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
A positive, exponentially increasing hazard function gives the survivor functionIts mean is , where is the exponential integral. Unlike the exponential distribution, its future mean waiting time is not the reciprocal of its current hazard function.
Holding time Created 2026-09-29 Updated 2026-10-05
The holding time of a continuous-time Markov chain is the time spent in its current state before the next jump. In state it has an exponential distribution of rate equal to the total outgoing rate .
Hyperexponential distribution 2026-10-07
A finite mixture distribution of exponential distributions with rates and nonnegative weights summing to one. Its expected value is and its moment-generating function is on the common finite domain. The mixture chooses one component for each observation; it is not a sum of independent exponential variables.
Hypoexponential distribution Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
A hypoexponential distribution is the distribution of a sum of independent variables with exponential distributions. For two positive unequal rates , convolution of independent random variables gives the probability density functionIt is zero for negative . Its equal-rate limit is the shape-two gamma distribution with rate .
For two independent rate- exponential distributions, set and . Summing the two ordering branches gives joint probability density for with . It factors into independent exponential probability density functions. Thus is distributed as , with expected value and variance . This spacing result is the order-statistic manifestation of the memorylessness of the exponential distribution.