Accidental coincidence 2026-10-18
Suppose two independent background streams follow Poisson processes with rates and . Define a coincidence by : is the full accepted time-difference width. Around each first-counter signal, the expected number of second-counter signals is . The expected pair rate is therefore . A circuit producing at most one output per first signal instead givesThe distinction matters when multiple detections occur in one window. If a different convention accepts , its full width is and the dilute expression is .
For a chosen numerical model, take background rates , and . The dilute pair rate is . These are stipulated teaching inputs, not measurements of the historical chamber.
Making smaller also rejects some genuine events. Suppose true pairs arrive at rate before the timing cut, and their time difference has a centered normal distribution with standard deviation . Its accepted fraction, using the error function, isFor chosen and , the window retains about of true pairs. In the dilute background model the fraction of accepted events that are true is . A narrow window trades detection efficiency against background; it does not make either quantity equal to one. Delaying one counter's signal far beyond genuine event correlations gives a proposed background check under stationarity, without assuming that the zero-delay excess itself is accidental.
Aperture photometry Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-10-20
Aperture photometry estimates brightness by summing calibrated detector pixels in an extraction region and subtracting the estimated background in that region. For equally weighted pixels, let be their total accumulated signal in electrons, the estimated background electrons per pixel over the same exposure, and the exposure duration. Then is a background-subtracted electron rate. Kepler applied aperture photometry to calibrated pixels with a fitted sky background. [ref].
This measurement trades source collection against background: enlarging the extraction region can retain more starlight but includes more sky brightness and neighbouring sources. Photon shot noise, read noise, and uncertainty in background subtraction contribute to its uncertainty. Dividing by a consistently measured reference rate gives a dimensionless light curve; it does not supply an absolute observed radiative flux. If contaminating light remains, the reference includes it and the inferred exoplanet transit depth suffers transit dilution.
In the first toy figure, the source's reference rate is electrons per second, the summed sky contribution is electrons per second, and a known multiplicative response is with in hours from mid-transit. The artificial exoplanet transit depth is , its total duration four hours, and its flat-bottom duration hours; the straight ingress and egress are a toy approximation, not an exact exoplanet transit photometry model. Each synthetic sample averages a -hour exposure and adds seeded normal distribution noise with relative standard deviation . Subtracting the known sky rate and dividing by the known response and reference rate recovers the dip. Real observations require estimating those corrections and carrying their uncertainty.
Consider a two-sided test rejecting when , with having a normal distribution of mean and variance one. Here is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution. Under a nonzero alternative , the type II error probability is the displayed function. It tends to the nonrejection probability under the null as , and to zero as . A particular observed has positive density under all these alternatives. Its null-calibrated p-value therefore does not select one value of . The power function describes repeated-sampling performance at specified alternatives.
For Brownian motion, write the later maximum as , where has a nondegenerate normal distribution and . The independent increments make independent of the earlier history and of . Conditional on those two objects, equality of the two maxima prescribes one value of , an event of probability zero. This argument uses the positive gap and does not assume independence of the two absolute maxima.
Autocorrelation Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-14
The autocorrelation function of a real weakly stationary process with positive variance is its normalized autocovariance:It is dimensionless, with , , and by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. It is unchanged by replacing with for fixed . This makes autocorrelation useful when comparing records measured on different scales. The ACF is a property of the model; the sample autocorrelation function estimates it and will generally not reproduce theoretical zeros exactly.
An AR(1) with coefficient has autocorrelations at lags one through three. With these become : the same diminishing magnitude, alternating in sign. An MA(1) with instead has lag-one autocorrelation and zero at every higher lag. Equal numerical coefficients in an autoregressive model and a moving-average model do not mean equal dependence. See Bartlett, lecture 3: theoretical ACFs and prediction.
Theoretical autocorrelation: AR(1) with coefficients 0.7 and -0.7, compared with MA(1) with coefficient 0.7
. Details. The bars show exact model autocorrelations, not estimates from the illustrated sample paths in time series. The AR(1) retains a diminishing trace of a disturbance at arbitrarily large lags; the MA(1) stops sharing driving noise after lag one. A zero autocorrelation means uncorrelated random variables, and does not generally imply independent random variables. For a Gaussian process it does imply independence of the two coordinates.
There is a direct prediction interpretation. Among affine predictions based on just , the best linear predictor of is , with mean squared prediction error . Thus negative autocorrelation is also useful predictive information. A prediction using the whole observed past can do better; best linear prediction from a finite past describes that problem. Interpreting the affine prediction as a conditional expectation requires additional assumptions, such as a joint normal distribution.
After integrating out other variables, let include the constrained entropy and the measure appropriate to the chosen coordinate . Its equilibrium probability density function is proportional to . Near a stable interior minimum, with . The resulting normal distribution has variance . This is the leading Gaussian fluctuation approximation; a coordinate-dependent measure contributes to the effective , and higher-order terms matter near a vanishing curvature.
For a sample of size from a normal distribution with unknown mean, the null variance likelihood-ratio test statistic is , where . With , its expected Taylor terms start with . Here , , and . Higher fixed-order terms contribute only under valid termwise asymptotic integration. Thus and .
For any real separable Hilbert space , any orthonormal basis and independent standard normal random variables , the displayed series converges almost surely for each fixed and in L2 space. Indeed, the Parseval identity for a Hilbertian basis gives , so the partial sums form an L2 space-bounded martingale. The martingale convergence theorem supplies both limits. Every finite linear combination has the normal distribution with variance . Thus its finite-dimensional characteristic function is , independent of the chosen orthonormal basis. This proves equality of the finite-dimensional distributions of the resulting isonormal Gaussian processes; pathwise equality needs a coupling.
Between-person slope quantile 2026-10-07
When a person's latent slope has normal distribution , its th quantile is . Multiply by an elapsed time to obtain the corresponding latent change quantile. This describes population variation between people; it is distinct from a confidence interval for the mean slope and from a prediction interval that includes measurement error.
Binary Brownian drift filter 2026-10-14
For with an independent equiprobable drift , the likelihood ratio between the two drifts is . Multiplying the normal distribution densities of successive increments proves this ratio for every observation partition; continuity then gives the full observed-path posterior. The Bayes' theorem gives . Thus the observed drift is . The process is an observed-filtration martingale with quadratic variation , so the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes it a Brownian motion. The observed state is a scaled diffusion with hyperbolic tangent drift.
Box-Muller transform 2026-10-06
Independent uniform distribution draws on produce independent standard normal distribution draws and . The proof transforms an independent uniform angle and radial density through the polar-coordinate Jacobian.
At integer times, has the same standard normal distribution for every . The event that its limit superior exceeds a fixed finite level is a tail event of the independent unit-time Brownian increments, since changing any finite initial segment contributes only a term tending to zero. The Kolmogorov zero-one law applies. Its probability is positive because each fixed-time exceedance has the same positive probability, giving a positive probability of infinitely many exceedances by the decreasing union-of-tail-events argument. Thus its probability is one. Intersecting over integer levels proves the stated divergence, without the lower iterated-logarithm bound.
Brownian increment 2026-10-07
An increment of a Brownian motion between deterministic times is . It has normal distribution and is independent of the filtration up to time . Increments on disjoint time intervals are independent. Their covariance is the length of overlap of the corresponding intervals; this also follows from the Brownian covariance kernel.
Brownian motion Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Standard one-dimensional Brownian motion is a real-valued stochastic process on a probability space with three defining properties: almost surely; its sample paths are continuous almost surely; and its Brownian increments over any finite collection of disjoint time intervals are independent, withHere denotes the normal distribution with expectation and variance . The alternative symbol denotes the same kind of stochastic process. Continuity is a simultaneous statement about an entire sample path, rather than a separate assertion at each fixed time. Relative to its natural Brownian filtration, a future Brownian increment is independent of all observations up to its starting time.
The normalization gives , so the standard deviation of a Brownian increment over duration is . For , , and , the corresponding standard deviations are , , and . Time becoming one hundred times shorter makes typical displacement ten times smaller. Brownian scaling expresses this rule for the whole stochastic process, while the Brownian covariance kernel describes how positions at different times remain related despite independent increments.
For a concrete probability calculation, let be the cumulative distribution function of . At time four, has that normal distribution, henceThese numbers can be reproduced using the error function: . In particular, zero expectation does not mean small displacement: , but the same fixed interval contains only about of the probability at time four.
The probability density function of , for , isIts partial derivatives satisfyThus the normal distribution spreads according to the heat equation. Starting at a fixed position replaces by . This is a useful bridge between individual random trajectories and the deterministic evolution of their probability density function: the same Brownian motion provides both descriptions.
Physical diffusion uses its own scale. For constant diffusion coefficient , the position model has variance , and its probability density function satisfies . For example, gives displacement variance after four seconds, hence standard deviation . Standard Brownian motion corresponds numerically to in chosen units; omitting the factor two changes the physical convention. Einstein's 1905 paper relates diffusion to the mean squared displacement in precisely this convention. [ref]
https://djalil.chafai.net/docs/M2/history-brownian-motion/Einstein%20-%201905.pdf. Einstein, 1905 paper, English translation, section 4
Continuity does not supply a smooth physical velocity. The difference quotient has normal distribution , so its standard deviation grows as : for the three durations above it is , , and . This calculation motivates the nowhere differentiability of Brownian motion, but it alone is not a proof of the simultaneous assertion at every time. The theorem says that, with probability one, no finite derivative exists anywhere along the sample path. A drawn polygon only displays a finite grid; its straight segments cannot establish this theorem. See Theorem 7.1.6 in Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition) by Rick Durrett.
For physical particles, Brownian motion is a model of position on suitable observation scales. It does not claim that microscopic velocity is a derivative of this idealized path. Einstein explicitly restricts his assumption of independent increments to intervals that are not too short. [ref]
https://djalil.chafai.net/docs/M2/history-brownian-motion/Einstein%20-%201905.pdf. Einstein, 1905 paper, English translation, section 4
Another way to measure the roughness is quadratic variation. On , divide time into equal intervals and formWriting each Brownian increment as with independent standard normal random variables gives . Since and , the variance of is , andThis proves mean-square convergence to along uniform partitions. For and , the expectation is , the variance is , and the root mean square of the error is . For a general deterministic partition of an interval with lengths , the same calculation gives error variance , so shrinking the largest interval also suffices.
The resulting quadratic variation is , whereas the smooth function gives . This difference explains why the ordinary rules of calculus need the second-order correction in the Itô formula. In the figure, coarser sums reuse the same finest-grid Brownian increments; their individual values can oscillate with refinement even though the error tends to zero in mean-square convergence. Refining a fixed interpolating polygon forever would instead give zero quadratic variation, so the finite-grid illustration must not be confused with the limiting Brownian motion.
Historically, Brown's 1828 report describes microscopic observations made in 1827, starting with particles released from pollen and extending to inorganic materials; this challenged an explanation based solely on living matter. His observations and the later mathematical model are distinct contributions. [ref]
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_miscellaneous_botanical_works_of_Robert_Brown/Volume_1/A_brief_account_of_microscopical_observations_made_on_the_particles_contained_in_the_pollen_of_plants. Brown, 1828 report, reprinted in his collected works
Einstein's 1905 paper derived a quantitative connection between kinetic theory, diffusion, and displacement. [ref]https://djalil.chafai.net/docs/M2/history-brownian-motion/Einstein%20-%201905.pdf. Einstein, 1905 paper, English translation
Wiener's 1923 Differential-Space developed integration on spaces of paths, a foundation for Wiener measure; it also acknowledges earlier work and his own previous papers. These dates mark documented contributions rather than an assertion that each subject had a single discoverer. [ref]https://djalil.chafai.net/docs/M2/history-brownian-motion/Wiener%20-%201923.pdf. Wiener, Differential-Space, 1923, sections 1 and 6
For every fixed mesh , independent increments with the normal distribution imply increments of absolute value greater than one occur infinitely often almost surely, by the second Borel-Cantelli lemma. A countable intersection over contradicts uniform continuity on .
Cameron-Martin theorem for a Gaussian measure Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
For with injective covariance operator of a Gaussian measure, its translated law is an equivalent probability measure to if and only if , the Cameron-Martin space of a Gaussian measure. For such ,The series has mean-square convergence and converges almost surely under , with normal distribution . Its exponential density has expected value one by the moment-generating function of a normal distribution. Finite-dimensional projections give the formula by ratios of multivariate normal densities; convergence of these likelihood ratios gives the infinite-dimensional result. The expression is only formal when the sample is outside . For , translation gives mutually singular measures.
Central limit theorem Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be real independent and identically distributed random variables with expected value and finite, strictly positive variance . Write and for their sum and sample mean. The central limit theorem statesPrecisely, for every real ,where is the standard normal distribution function. The conclusion is convergence in distribution to the standard normal distribution. If the variance is zero, every observation equals almost surely; the displayed normalization is then undefined and there is no fluctuating error to describe.
The striking feature is that the observations need not have a normal distribution. They may be binary, bounded, or strongly skewed. Their detailed probability distribution disappears from this limit except through the expected value and variance. The subtraction removes predictable growth: . The division implements variance normalization: variance additivity for independent random variables gives , so every has expected value zero and variance one. For nonzero , an uncentered sum drifts; without rescaling its spread grows.
For a concrete example, let each have a Bernoulli distribution with success probability . Then has a binomial distribution, with expected value and variance . Its exact probability mass function and its normalized count areHere is a binomial coefficient. Individual trials are conspicuously skewed, yet their centered, rescaled counts approach the same standard normal distribution as sums of fair trials.
Exact standardized binomial distributions approach the standard normal curve
. For independent Bernoulli trials with , each blue bar has width equal to the normalized lattice spacing and area equal to the exact binomial distribution mass at its center. Heights are mass divided by spacing, so they can be compared with the orange probability density function of the standard normal distribution. All four normalized counts have expected value zero and variance one. The rectangles visualize discrete masses; they do not make the discrete probability distributions continuous. Details.At , has expected value and standard deviation . The exact binomial distribution gives . A normal approximation with the continuity correction uses the interval to :The small discrepancy is an approximation error, not an equality supplied by the central limit theorem.
The strong law of large numbers and weak law of large numbers locate the average: , respectively by almost sure convergence and convergence in probability. The central limit theorem magnifies that shrinking error and describes its shape. In terms of the sample mean, the resulting normal approximation is , with standard error . This explains why four times as many independent observations halve the standard error. When is known, has approximately coverage for at large , giving a confidence interval. This coverage refers to repeated samples, not a guarantee for an individual interval.
A useful application is the Monte Carlo method: estimate a success probability by the proportion of successful simulated trials. Nicholas Metropolis and S. Ulam's original paper, "The Monte Carlo Method" (1949), illustrates this with games of solitaire and estimation of a region's volume by randomly selected points, and discusses why estimates require probabilistic error control. The strong law of large numbers justifies convergence of such proportions for independent repetitions; the central limit theorem supplies their large-sample error scale when .[ref]
https://hedibert.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/1949MetropolisUlam.pdf. Metropolis and Ulam, The Monte Carlo Method, JASA 44 (1949), 335–341, especially pp. 336–337
There are three useful limits to this picture:
- A heavy-tailed distribution can have infinite variance, so the displayed hypothesis must be checked. A Pareto distribution with minimum one and shape has finite expected value three but infinite variance. The strong law of large numbers still applies, but the stated central limit theorem does not. More dramatically, the Cauchy sample mean has an unchanged distribution: even averaging need not concentrate when the expected value is undefined. A heavy-tailed distribution with finite variance is allowed by the stated central limit theorem.
- Independence matters. If all equal the same nonconstant Bernoulli random variable, then and . There is no accumulation of new information, and the variance of the sum grows like , not . Other versions of the central limit theorem can allow dependence, but require hypotheses controlling it.
- Convergence in distribution is a limiting assertion, with no universal sample size or error rate under finite variance alone. It does not automatically give accurate relative estimates of very small tail probabilities. Nor does it mean that discrete point masses converge as probability density functions: a binomial distribution remains discrete for every finite . If the success probability changes with so that and , the relevant result is the Poisson limit theorem, rather than the fixed- argument above.
A historical original-paper reference is J. W. Lindeberg's "Eine neue Herleitung des Exponentialgesetzes in der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung" (1922), published in Mathematische Zeitschrift 15, pp. 211–225. The Lindeberg condition and Lindeberg-Feller central limit theorem below describe a version for sums whose summands need not share a probability distribution.[ref]
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01494395. Lindeberg, Eine neue Herleitung des Exponentialgesetzes in der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (1922)
A brief proof outline uses the characteristic function of . Its expected value is zero and its variance is one, so the finite second moment givesThe Taylor expansion of the complex exponential, with its remainder controlled by , and the dominated convergence theorem justify this step without a third-moment assumption. Independence then gives the characteristic function of :The limit is the characteristic function of the standard normal distribution; the Lévy continuity theorem turns this into convergence in distribution.
Let be real independent and identically distributed random variables, with mean , variance and finite fourth central moment . For the sample variance , the displayed convergence in distribution holds.
Indeed . The central limit theorem for the sample mean implies that tends to zero in probability. Changing the divisor from to also has negligible effect at this scale, by the law of large numbers. Apply the central limit theorem to the independent variables , whose variance is , and use Slutsky's theorem. Standardization gives a standard normal distribution limit when . The familiar special case holds for the normal distribution because then .
Charge lattice inference from oil drops 2026-10-18
An integer pattern must survive the stated measurement uncertainty. For an original simulated example, choose a reference electric charge , define , and stipulate state meansHere each is an independent standard uncertainty of a state mean, before shared calibration effects. The generator constructs repeated noisy observations with these means; the numbers are deliberately chosen, not historical data. There is no conversion of to coulombs and no measured value of the elementary charge in this example.
For a candidate spacing in units of and proposed integers , use weighted least squares:The last two expressions follow by differentiating the quadratic in and propagating the independent errors. They are conditional on fixed, correct integer assignments and the stated error model. They do not include uncertainty from choosing those assignments. For , they give , , and . Such a small residual is compatible with this chosen error scale; it is not evidence that the errors vanish. A chi-squared distribution interpretation additionally needs the appropriate normal distribution error model and allowance for the fitted parameter; searching many assignments changes that interpretation.
Finite noisy electric charges fit a candidate unit and its subdivisions
. Original calculation for the simulated state means above. Horizontal bars show one standard uncertainty. Both spacings and have exactly the same fitted locations and residuals when the integer labels double. The lower curve minimizes over integers separately at every candidate spacing; a low residual alone cannot identify the elementary charge. Details.The obstruction is identifiability: replacing by for any positive integer leaves every predicted reading unchanged. In particular, an -spaced pattern also fits an lattice using even indices. Even the coarsest well-fitting spacing need not be the physical unit: a dataset containing only even charge states can have twice that unit. Worse, if arbitrarily fine spacings and unrestricted integers are allowed, rounding each givesConsequently a finite fit cannot prove a minimal transferable electric charge. Reproducible smallest observed jumps supply additional evidence; interpreting them as single-carrier transfers requires independent physical support. One visibly abrupt transition could contain several unresolved transfers. In the simulation the successive differences are , , and , each with standard uncertainty . These support changes near conditional on that unit; they equally support units of . Neighboring differences share a state reading and are therefore correlated, even though the state means were stipulated independent.
A shared scale error can preserve every apparent integer relation. To first order, an independent fractional scale standard uncertainty adds to the covariance matrix of the . For the simulation, stipulating changes the conditional uncertainty of to approximately , despite the same residual pattern. Repeating timings cannot average away this common scale contribution. In the uncorrected continuum model in elementary charge, holding the other measured inputs fixed gives , so a small fractional error in air dynamic viscosity causes times that fractional error in inferred electric charge. The gas slip correction to Stokes drag requires its own propagation. Pattern agreement, drop-stability controls and absolute measurement calibration together make the inference persuasive within resolution.
Complementary error function Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
The complementary error function describes the Gaussian integral area remaining beyond the endpoint. For a real ,It is an entire function for complex arguments when defined by . On the real line it decreases from two to zero, with and .[ref]
For example, is a sizeable tail, whereas is extremely small. In the tested floating-point arithmetic, a direct evaluation of gives zero because the computed error function has already rounded to one. Evaluating the complementary error function directly preserves this tail. It is the useful quantity in an upper-tail normal distribution probability and in the decaying side of an error-function diffusion front.
For large positive real , the leading asymptotic expansion isThe first corrections are multiplying the leading term. This is an asymptotic expansion, not an assertion that summing arbitrarily many terms converges at a fixed .[ref] The complementary error function tail bound provides finite- inequalities instead.



