Multiply the beta distribution density of , the conditional binomial distribution mass of , and the conditional beta distribution density of . With the beta function, the full joint density, relative to counting measure in and Lebesgue measure in the two probabilities, is
Here and both probabilities lie in . The printed joint expression omits the factor . It is a constant when is fixed and only the two probabilities vary, but is not a constant for the full joint probability distribution. Keeping it is essential when summing over the latent variable.
Let , so a type values a prize at . In a symmetric increasing Bayes-Nash equilibrium of this rank-order contest, a player reporting type wins when at most opponents have larger types. Its winning probability is
Here the count of opponents above has a binomial distribution. Differentiation, or the associated order statistic density, gives
Define the effort by the all-pay effort identity
This also verifies equilibrium globally. The derivative of a type 's payoff from reporting is , positive before and negative after . Thus truthful reporting is a best response. Bidding above the maximal equilibrium effort gains no additional winning probability. Type zero chooses zero effort.
By exchanging the two integrations, the expected value of total effort is
The last integral is the moment for a Beta distribution with parameters and , namely . This is the uniform-value multi-prize all-pay effort formula.
Put and . The positive constant multiplying does not affect the maximizing . Since
the assumed inequality makes nonincreasing on the feasible interval. Hence one prize maximizes expected total effort.
For the power family, the PDF gives . Then
If , this derivative is strictly negative for : the bracket is affine and its values at the endpoints are and . Thus is optimal.
If , the unique continuous maximizer is
The objective strictly increases before and decreases after it. Therefore its discrete maximizer lies among
Compare the surviving candidates using , since . If is an integer, that integer is the unique maximizer; if its floor is zero, the only feasible candidate is . This proves the discrete prize-count optimization for a power-valued contest including the endpoint cases.
The sufficient condition need only hold on . The power family is undefined at zero, so the printed endpoint cannot apply to it. More generally, a positive finite value would make the displayed inequality fail at zero. The design argument uses only positive feasible prize fractions and needs no value there.
The expected values of early and late new diagnosis counts at step are
Each summand in corresponds to an infection that avoids early diagnosis, enters the non-early state one step later, remains there for the intervening steps and is then diagnosed. Define for , and take an empty sum as zero. The early share of diagnosis intensity is
It is defined only when ; in particular there are no diagnoses at step 1 under the initial condition. With infection counts following a Poisson distribution and independent marking, early and late diagnosis counts in a fixed interval are independent Poisson random variables. Conditional on a positive total, the early count has a binomial distribution given the total with probability , so this ratio also equals the expectation of the observed early fraction conditional on a nonzero total. Without that conditioning a sample fraction at zero diagnoses is undefined.
The Hoeffding inequality states that if are independent random variables with almost surely, then for
The same bound holds for the lower tail. Consequently the two-sided tail is at most twice this bound. When all ranges have length zero, the sum is deterministic and every positive tail probability is zero.
We construct an exponential packing of a Hamming cube. Choose an inclusion-maximal separated set in with separation at least for the Hamming distance. It exists by a finite greedy procedure: keep adding any vertex at distance at least from all selected vertices until none remains. By maximality, every vertex is within distance strictly less than of some member of . This is the principle that maximal separated sets give covers.
For a uniformly random vertex and any fixed vertex , the mismatch indicators in different coordinates are independent Bernoulli random variables with success probability . Hence has the binomial distribution with parameters . The lower-tail Hoeffding inequality gives
Thus the Hoeffding lower-tail bound for Hamming balls shows that every strict-radius ball has at most vertices. Using a strict ball handles noninteger without changing the required separation.
The strict balls centered at cover the entire Hamming cube. Counting their union by the sum of their sizes yields
Therefore
In particular this proves the assertion for every . Maximality here means that no further vertex can be added; finding a largest separated set is unnecessary.
Express the three counts as sums of indicator variables for , and . The linearity of expectation applies even though the bin counts are dependent. The binomial distribution gives
Thus
The relation checks the sum of these expectations. For , use the direct deterministic occupancies, or the usual binomial convention when .
For each ball, the event of landing in is a Bernoulli distribution trial. Under the null hypothesis its probability is . Under the selected alternative , its probability is . The placements are independent random variables conditional on that selected index, so the count has the binomial distribution:
The second assertion concerns , rather than the unconditional mixture model .
The binomial theorem makes the sum of the proposed probability mass function equal to ; every term is nonnegative. Realize the associated binomial distribution as , where the are independent variables with the Bernoulli distribution of parameter . Each has expected value and variance . Linearity of expectation and variance additivity for independent random variables yield
At or this is a constant random variable; the same formulas apply, with the endpoint mass understood by continuity.
Let and use the floor function to choose
Interpret an empty integer interval as an empty sum. These bounds give exactly the event , where has the binomial distribution of parameters . Since , the central limit theorem for a sum of independent Bernoulli distribution variables gives convergence in distribution of that standardized count to the standard normal distribution. Its cumulative distribution function is continuous at both endpoints, so
The TeX's additional malformed inequality involving and is absent from the PDF and is not a condition on the requested integers.
For the constant monomial , the binomial theorem gives . For , the binomial coefficient identity gives
Thus , including by evaluation of the polynomials.
For and , substitute the preceding coefficient identity into the Bernstein polynomial sum and write . This yields the Bernstein monomial recurrence
The coefficients are nonnegative and sum to ; and the others tend to zero. The weights in any Bernstein polynomial sum are nonnegative and sum to , so . Induction on therefore gives : the term has that limit and the other finitely many terms vanish. In fact, the same estimate in the supremum norm proves uniform convergence on .
As an independent quantitative bound, take a binomial distribution variable with parameters . Then . On , factoring the difference of powers gives ; the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality and the variance of give
For the error is exactly zero. Finally the requested sum equals , so
Since , the indicator is an unbiased estimator of . The joint probability mass function is
The Fisher-Neyman factorization theorem therefore makes a sufficient statistic. More explicitly, conditioning on gives a multinomial distribution with trials and cell probabilities , so has the binomial distribution . Consequently conditioning by the Rao-Blackwell theorem gives
For , interpret the value at as and at as ; thus the same expression uses in this probability convention. For all observations and are zero almost surely. For and , the reduction in variance is strict: given , the event still has a nondegenerate conditional probability. Directly, using the probability generating function of , the new variance is .
Put and . Dropping factors independent of , the multinomial likelihood and uniform prior give the posterior density
Multiplying this by the stipulated binomial distribution for the latent variable cancels the factor :
Consequently the two full conditional distributions are
Start with , sample from its binomial distribution, then sample a new from its Beta distribution, and repeat. The binomial distribution can be sampled by adding independent Bernoulli random variables. For the Beta distribution, take independent and and return ; integer-shape gamma distributions are sums of independent unit-rate exponential distributions. Both shapes are positive even when some observed counts vanish.
Each Gibbs sampler update preserves the augmented posterior distribution, so its marginal distribution is the required posterior distribution. The positive full conditional distributions on the interior allow exploration of the entire support. These iterates are generally dependent; they are not the independent exact draws constructed in the later parts.
Under the binomial distribution model's assumption of independent games with a common win probability , the probability of winning a match is
This is also the cumulative distribution function of a beta distribution with parameters : differentiation of the binomial tail gives , and . In particular is strictly increasing on and maps bijectively onto itself.
The new match probability is , while the desired linear predictor remains the game-level log odds. Therefore the link function is
Its endpoint values are and . This is not the ordinary match-level log odds link: it first recovers the underlying game probability. Symmetry of the binomial tail gives , hence , as required by swapping the players. Dependence or varying game probabilities within a match would invalidate the stated binomial-tail conversion.
A renewal process has independent identically distributed, nonnegative, almost surely finite inter-arrival times , epochs , and count . Allowing zero inter-arrivals is harmless provided . The hypothesis ensures there is with .
The strong law of large numbers for the indicators gives , so is finite for finite . Conversely every fixed is finite, so eventually . On their countable common probability-one event, this proves .
For fixed , put . The hinted comparison process has epochs , hence . Equivalently,
If , for this is bounded by , by summing the first binomial distribution. Thus for . If , deterministically. Therefore a strictly positive exponential moment exists for every fixed finite , with the same allowed for all such . Almost-sure finiteness of the inter-arrivals is implicit in a proper renewal process; allowing an infinite inter-arrival with positive probability would invalidate the divergence claim.
This does not model the full three-category response. A binomial distribution has two outcome classes, whereas the observed damage factor has three. In base R, a factor response to a binomial generalized linear model is coded as first level versus all other levels; this would silently collapse the categories. It would also treat the nine table rows as nine individual observations, ignoring the frequencies. A deliberate binary analysis would require specifying the collapse and retaining the counts, but cannot recover the full damage distribution.
Let and . To prove the Hoeffding lemma, take a centered random variable and its cumulant-generating function . Under exponential tilting, is the variance of . The Popoviciu inequality on variances gives
since under any such tilt the support remains , and . Because , integrating twice gives for ; applying the same argument to handles the opposite tail.
The independence of the gives . The Markov inequality, in the Chernoff bound argument, yields
where the minimum is at when . Apply the same argument to and add the bounds to obtain the Hoeffding inequality:
If , every centered is identically zero and the tail probability is zero; the displayed exponential is interpreted by its zero-variance limit.
For the Bennett inequality, write , and first assume and . For , boundedness and centering give
For , expanding the moment-generating function and using the permitted interchange of sum and expected value,
Negative odd moments cause no difficulty because the estimate is an upper bound term by term. The independence of the and the Chernoff bound then give
The derivative vanishes at , and substitution gives with the Bennett rate function . The same absolute bounds apply to , so
If , all centered are zero almost surely; if , the same is immediate. Handle those cases directly rather than divide by zero. Both derived concentration inequalities also hold with , by the same Markov inequality argument or by letting a smaller positive threshold increase to .
For the binomial distribution, write with independent and identically distributed random variables having the Bernoulli distribution with parameter . Then has range , width one, and variance . For large , , so and . Set .
The Hoeffding inequality gives
After truncation at one, this is asymptotically the trivial probability bound. The Bennett inequality instead gives
Since and by a Taylor expansion,
Thus the Bennett bounds for sparse binomial fluctuations yield
The Bennett inequality supplies the smaller raw exponential bound for every fixed and all sufficiently large . If , clipping probability upper bounds at one makes both eventually trivial; for , the Bennett inequality retains a nontrivial limiting bound. This distinction avoids claiming a probability improvement after clipping when both raw bounds exceed one.
Use the slotted ALOHA model with one outstanding packet per active station and a collision channel: a slot with exactly one attempt succeeds, whereas an idle slot or a slot with two or more attempts delivers nothing. Let be independent Poisson random variables of mean , independent also of the transmission choices. Arrivals join after the current slot's attempts. Given , the attempt count has a binomial distribution with parameters and . Consequently, for ,
For , set and . The equation adds arrivals and removes precisely one packet following a successful slot. The estimate controls the common transmission probability and updates using the idle, success, or collision feedback. The conditional distribution of the next state depends only on , so this pair is a Markov chain.
Away from the reflecting floor in , its one-step conditional expectations are
When and are large with , the Poisson limit theorem gives and . Treating these approximate drifts as derivatives motivates the fluid approximation of slotted ALOHA:
The floor at is negligible in this interior scaling. This calculation motivates the ordinary differential equations; it is not a proof of a stochastic fluid limit.
For , put
Then and . On the domain , introduce time by . Differentiating gives
where .
The function is strictly increasing from zero to infinity, and . To check the monotonicity explicitly,
Indeed, with ,
because its discriminant is ; and . Thus the scalar ordinary differential equation for points toward the unique value satisfying . Every trajectory with , has bounded and . Positivity of follows from .
If , then and . Thus decays exponentially for large , and
This is finite-time draining of a fluid model. The unmodified equations have undefined at the origin, so the statement that trajectories converge to the origin needs this endpoint interpretation; continuing with an absorbing zero trajectory is an additional fluid-model convention, not a solution of the displayed equations at the origin.
If , then and . Now grows exponentially, physical time tends to infinity, and
In particular the trajectory escapes to infinity. Even without the ratio analysis, , since .
For the actual Markov chain, it is essential not to replace the finite- success probability by : a single backlogged packet can succeed with probability one. Instead, for , maximizing over gives the ALOHA throughput bound
If , choose and so that for all , uniformly in . For sufficiently small ,
because its derivative at zero is . Independence of arrivals and attempts gives
whenever . For any integer , stop at the stopping time . The stopped process is a nonnegative supermartingale. The optional stopping theorem, first at bounded times and then by a limit, yields the exponential-supermartingale escape bound
From every state with , a Poisson distribution arrival burst has a uniformly positive probability of sending the next backlog to at least , for any fixed . From there the probability of never revisiting is at least . By the Markov property at successive visits, the probability of infinitely many visits to this strip is zero: each visit has a uniform positive chance of being the last. This holds for every integer , so
Therefore the Markov chain is transient for every finite choice of . The proof is uniform in and does not infer stochastic transience merely from the approximate ordinary differential equations.
Write , , and . We keep the model's printed coefficient literally. Its latent log odds can be written
The independence of the is conditional on : they are not marginally independent when the random effects are correlated.
Holding the other predictors and the random-effect realization fixed, increasing predictor by one shifts the latent log odds by , so it multiplies the conditional odds of a late departure by . For a binary snow indicator, this compares the snow and no-snow days with other predictors held fixed. This is a conditional odds ratio, not generally the same as a marginal odds ratio after integrating the random effects.
Randomizing allows unmeasured daily conditions to change the success probability beyond the systematic linear predictor. In this logistic-normal regression with autoregressive random effects, let and . The law of total variance gives
so the mixture allows overdispersion beyond a binomial distribution with fixed probability. The correlated part also allows related outcomes on nearby days.
The stationary autoregressive process of order one has and . Hence
The term is unstructured daily variability, whereas is the temporally correlated component under the printed parameterization. Larger gives greater persistence: the lag- correlation of the latent log odds is .
The PDF itself prints both the coefficient and the requested combination . They are inconsistent as a marginal variance. If the intended coefficient were , the variance and off-diagonal covariance would instead be and . The prior's argument list also repeats ; its displayed density indicates the intended second variance parameter is .
There is a further substantive issue with that improper prior. After integrating the latent variables, the observed-data likelihood function is positive and continuous at for fixed finite , positive , and . On a compact positive-volume set of those parameters it therefore has a positive lower bound for small . The prior density is , so integrating over gives . Thus the stated joint posterior distribution is improper, an instance of improper posterior from a log-uniform random-effect scale prior. The requested fixed-parameter conditional laws below are nevertheless proper; their existence does not remedy the joint impropriety.
Given the parameters and , the coordinates are conditionally independent. Write , , and let denote the observed count. Their full conditional distributions have scalar densities
Each is proper: the binomial distribution likelihood factor is bounded, and the remaining factor is a proper normal distribution density.
One completely specified exact algorithm is rejection sampling from . Define
For ,
for or , take , and for take . Propose and accept with probability , repeating until acceptance. The accepted density is proportional to the proposal times , exactly . Its acceptance probability is positive, so it terminates almost surely, although it can be inefficient.
An efficient exact alternative is adaptive rejection sampling. The log density has
Thus it is a log-concave probability density. Choose one tangent point with positive derivative in the left tail and one with negative derivative in the right tail; these exist because the Gaussian term dominates there. Their tangent upper hull gives an integrable piecewise exponential rejection envelope. Sample that envelope, accept using the target-to-envelope ratio, and add evaluated points to improve it. Concavity guarantees the upper bound, so accepted samples remain exact. Sample each coordinate independently by either method; a finite number of Metropolis steps would not provide the requested exact draws.
Consider on the finite-dimensional vector space and use the monomial basis. For , a binomial distribution and the falling factorial moment formula give
where is the Stirling number of the second kind and . This follows by expanding and using . Also .
Each monomial maps to a polynomial of no larger degree. The resulting matrix is triangular with diagonal entries and , . When and , all entries are positive. Therefore
For constant polynomials the conclusion is immediate. Taking positive indices avoids the undefined sample expression at .
For any action , decompose the posterior expected quadratic loss around the posterior mean:
The unique minimizer is therefore the Bayes estimator under squared error loss. Using the mean of the posterior Beta distribution gives
Under repeated sampling at parameter value , has the binomial distribution with expected value . Consequently
so its bias of an estimator is .