Boole's inequality 2026-10-14
Boole's inequality, also called the union bound, bounds the probability that at least one of several events occurs by adding their individual probabilities. For a finite or countable family of events in the same probability space,
The union includes outcomes where several events occur together. There is no independence assumption: adding the individual probabilities counts such outcomes repeatedly, which can only make the sum larger. The cap at one uses the total mass of a probability measure. For infinitely many events, the sum is a nonnegative series, possibly infinite; an infinite sum gives only the bound one. This is countable subadditivity of a measure specialized to a probability measure. See Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition) by Rick Durrett (Section 1.1, Theorem 1.1.1(ii), printed p. 2).
For example, choose uniformly from the twelve outcomes , using the discrete uniform distribution. Put . If , these are disjoint events and their union has probability , exactly the union bound. If , the union has only six outcomes, so its exact probability is , although both individual probabilities are still and the bound is still . If , the exact probability falls to with the same bound. These examples isolate overlap in the union bound by keeping the individual probabilities fixed.
Figure 1.
The same individual event probabilities give different exact union probabilities as overlap increases
. Each panel is a fully specified discrete uniform distribution on twelve numbered outcomes. Blue means only, orange means only, purple means their intersection, and white means neither. The bottom bars compare the exact union probability with the sum of the individual probabilities. The three unions contain eight, six, and four outcomes; the sum counts eight in every panel. Details.
The union bound is useful when each event is easy to control but their joint behavior is difficult to determine. A short proof uses indicator functions: at every outcome,
Taking expected values and using linearity of expectation proves the finite bound.[ref] For a countable family, the finite unions increase to the full union; continuity of probability passes the finite inequalities to the limit. The closure of a sigma-algebra under countable unions ensures that this limiting union is an event. For the continuity of probability step, see Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition) by Rick Durrett (Section 1.1, Theorem 1.1.1(iii), printed p. 2).
Borel-Cantelli first lemma Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
For arbitrary events in one probability space,
Equivalently, only finitely many events occur almost surely; no independence is needed.[ref]
Proof outline: put . The union bound gives
The tail of a convergent nonnegative series tends to zero.
If the events are mutually independent events and , then . For an infinite family, mutual independence means every finite subfamily satisfies the factorization defining independent events.[ref]
Proof outline: for , independent events and give
Continuity of probability makes each infinite tail union have probability one; their countable intersection has probability one as well.
Brownian motion Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Standard one-dimensional Brownian motion is a real-valued stochastic process on a probability space with three defining properties: almost surely; its sample paths are continuous almost surely; and its Brownian increments over any finite collection of disjoint time intervals are independent, with
Here denotes the normal distribution with expectation and variance . The alternative symbol denotes the same kind of stochastic process. Continuity is a simultaneous statement about an entire sample path, rather than a separate assertion at each fixed time. Relative to its natural Brownian filtration, a future Brownian increment is independent of all observations up to its starting time.
The normalization gives , so the standard deviation of a Brownian increment over duration is . For , , and , the corresponding standard deviations are , , and . Time becoming one hundred times shorter makes typical displacement ten times smaller. Brownian scaling expresses this rule for the whole stochastic process, while the Brownian covariance kernel describes how positions at different times remain related despite independent increments.
For a concrete probability calculation, let be the cumulative distribution function of . At time four, has that normal distribution, hence
These numbers can be reproduced using the error function: . In particular, zero expectation does not mean small displacement: , but the same fixed interval contains only about of the probability at time four.
The probability density function of , for , is
Its partial derivatives satisfy
Thus the normal distribution spreads according to the heat equation. Starting at a fixed position replaces by . This is a useful bridge between individual random trajectories and the deterministic evolution of their probability density function: the same Brownian motion provides both descriptions.
Physical diffusion uses its own scale. For constant diffusion coefficient , the position model has variance , and its probability density function satisfies . For example, gives displacement variance after four seconds, hence standard deviation . Standard Brownian motion corresponds numerically to in chosen units; omitting the factor two changes the physical convention. Einstein's 1905 paper relates diffusion to the mean squared displacement in precisely this convention. [ref]
Continuity does not supply a smooth physical velocity. The difference quotient has normal distribution , so its standard deviation grows as : for the three durations above it is , , and . This calculation motivates the nowhere differentiability of Brownian motion, but it alone is not a proof of the simultaneous assertion at every time. The theorem says that, with probability one, no finite derivative exists anywhere along the sample path. A drawn polygon only displays a finite grid; its straight segments cannot establish this theorem. See Theorem 7.1.6 in Probability: Theory and Examples (fifth edition) by Rick Durrett.
For physical particles, Brownian motion is a model of position on suitable observation scales. It does not claim that microscopic velocity is a derivative of this idealized path. Einstein explicitly restricts his assumption of independent increments to intervals that are not too short. [ref]
Another way to measure the roughness is quadratic variation. On , divide time into equal intervals and form
Writing each Brownian increment as with independent standard normal random variables gives . Since and , the variance of is , and
This proves mean-square convergence to along uniform partitions. For and , the expectation is , the variance is , and the root mean square of the error is . For a general deterministic partition of an interval with lengths , the same calculation gives error variance , so shrinking the largest interval also suffices.
The resulting quadratic variation is , whereas the smooth function gives . This difference explains why the ordinary rules of calculus need the second-order correction in the Itô formula. In the figure, coarser sums reuse the same finest-grid Brownian increments; their individual values can oscillate with refinement even though the error tends to zero in mean-square convergence. Refining a fixed interpolating polygon forever would instead give zero quadratic variation, so the finite-grid illustration must not be confused with the limiting Brownian motion.
Historically, Brown's 1828 report describes microscopic observations made in 1827, starting with particles released from pollen and extending to inorganic materials; this challenged an explanation based solely on living matter. His observations and the later mathematical model are distinct contributions. [ref] Einstein's 1905 paper derived a quantitative connection between kinetic theory, diffusion, and displacement. [ref] Wiener's 1923 Differential-Space developed integration on spaces of paths, a foundation for Wiener measure; it also acknowledges earlier work and his own previous papers. These dates mark documented contributions rather than an assertion that each subject had a single discoverer. [ref]
Brownian scaling Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For every , the stochastic process is standard Brownian motion. Its Brownian increments remain independent and have variance ; continuity and the zero starting value are preserved. Equivalently,
Equality here is of whole-process distributions, including every finite-dimensional distribution. It is not an equality of the two expressions along a particular realization. With , speeding time up fourfold requires dividing displacement by two to recover the standard law. The figure applies exactly these coordinate changes to four finite samples; the shared colors indicate reused samples, while the dashed lines show pointwise standard deviations, not bounds on entire sample paths.
Figure 1.
Seeded Gaussian samples before and after Brownian scaling with c equal to four
. Details.
The same square-root normalization explains how a simple random walk approaches Brownian motion. Let , where the independent steps take values and with equal probability. Then has variance . Its linear interpolation is
and . Donsker's theorem says in with the uniform norm: this is convergence in distribution of random paths. The interpolation bound vanishes, but the theorem does not assert pointwise convergence of an arbitrarily fixed walk to an independently chosen Brownian motion. The usefulness is that many-step discrete motion has a universal continuous limit.[ref]
Limsup of events 2026-10-14
For events in a probability space, the infinitely-often event is
Its complement of an event is : after some outcome-dependent index, no more events occur.[ref]
Deleting finitely many events leaves the limsup of events unchanged. It is therefore a tail event of the sequence of indicator random variables , whether or not those random variables are independent. For independent events, the Kolmogorov zero-one law restricts its probability to zero or one; the Borel-Cantelli lemmas determine which alternative holds from the series of probabilities. Also precisely when only finitely many events occur, connecting the First Borel-Cantelli lemma to almost sure convergence and the existing complete convergence criterion.
Choose one random variable with the continuous uniform distribution on , and reuse it in every event:
Each probability is , so their harmonic series diverges, just as in summable and harmonic event probabilities. But the events are decreasing: . For every outcome , all indices with fail. Only finitely many events occur on that outcome. The limsup of events is exactly , a zero-probability event. This is a concrete closed-interval version of the shrinking-interval dependence example.[ref]
The missing assumption is visible already in two events. For , their intersection is , hence
Moreover, the whole tail union is just , with probability . This calculation explains directly why divergence alone fails: overlapping events keep spending their individual probabilities on the same outcomes.
Let be the total number of occurrences, a sum of indicator random variables. Although almost surely, Tonelli theorem gives . More explicitly, for : very small positive values of give very long, but finite, initial runs. Infinite expected value does not imply a positive probability of an infinite count.
Figure 1.
Equal harmonic event probabilities with fresh independent inputs or one shared input
. Each row is one finite simulation of the indicator random variables of for ; a dot means the event occurred. Fresh independent random variables allow scattered returns; a shared uniform random variable yields an initial run followed by zeros. The horizontal axis uses a logarithmic scale to show early runs clearly. These finite simulations illustrate the two models and cannot prove infinitely many occurrences or eventual stopping. Details.
Tail sigma-algebra Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For a sequence of random variables on a probability space , define
The decreasing sigma-algebras are generated by the listed random variables. Their intersection consists of events expressible after discarding every finite prefix. No independence is required.[ref]
The point is to distinguish a long observation record from a property of an infinite sequence. The event of seeing infinitely many heads and the event that sample means converge survive any finite change, while an exact first-head time does not. Kolmogorov's zero–one law adds the striking conclusion that under independence each tail event has probability zero or one; the tail sigma-algebra itself can still contain many nonempty sets.