Certain ruin with nonpositive loading and finite claim variance Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
For positive claims with finite variance and , the classical risk model has ruin probability one from any finite capital. At claim times, surplus increments are independent copies of with mean . Negative mean sends their partial sums to minus infinity by the strong law of large numbers. At zero mean, the increments have finite nonzero variance. For every fixed , the central limit theorem gives limiting probability of a partial sum below . The probability of unboundedness below is therefore at least ; as a tail event it has probability zero or one by the Kolmogorov zero-one law, and hence one.
For independent and identically distributed random variables with law , is a nonnegative martingale, since the increment's moment-generating function equals one at parameter two. The Doob maximal inequality gives for the all-time maximum . Integrating the tail gives the displayed bound. For , . The strong law of large numbers guarantees finiteness and attainment of the maximum because .
Exponential sample-mean upper-tail rate 2026-10-07
For independent unit-rate exponential random variables, the cumulant-generating function is for . Its Legendre transform of a cumulant-generating function is for and infinite otherwise. The Cramér theorem gives the upper-tail logarithmic rate for , and zero for . At the mean threshold the infima on both the open and closed upper half-lines are zero; below the mean the strong law of large numbers applies.
Importance sampling Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
To estimate , sample independently from a reference density whose support covers that of , and useThe summands have expectation , and the strong law of large numbers gives almost-sure convergence under integrability.
If every holding rate of a continuous-time Markov chain is at most , its holding times can be coupled as , where the are independent rate-one exponential random variables. The strong law of large numbers gives almost surely, so the jump times tend to infinity and the chain cannot explode.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ib Paper 2 20C b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ii Paper 1 25J d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ii Paper 3 26J b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ii Paper 4 27J a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24