Certain ruin with nonpositive loading and finite claim variance Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
For positive claims with finite variance and , the classical risk model has ruin probability one from any finite capital. At claim times, surplus increments are independent copies of with mean . Negative mean sends their partial sums to minus infinity by the strong law of large numbers. At zero mean, the increments have finite nonzero variance. For every fixed , the central limit theorem gives limiting probability of a partial sum below . The probability of unboundedness below is therefore at least ; as a tail event it has probability zero or one by the Kolmogorov zero-one law, and hence one.
For independent and identically distributed random variables with law , is a nonnegative martingale, since the increment's moment-generating function equals one at parameter two. The Doob maximal inequality gives for the all-time maximum . Integrating the tail gives the displayed bound. For , . The strong law of large numbers guarantees finiteness and attainment of the maximum because .
For independent unit-rate exponential random variables, the cumulant-generating function is for . Its Legendre transform of a cumulant-generating function is for and infinite otherwise. The Cramér theorem gives the upper-tail logarithmic rate for , and zero for . At the mean threshold the infima on both the open and closed upper half-lines are zero; below the mean the strong law of large numbers applies.
Importance sampling Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
To estimate , sample independently from a reference density whose support covers that of , and use
The summands have expectation , and the strong law of large numbers gives almost-sure convergence under integrability.
If every holding rate of a continuous-time Markov chain is at most , its holding times can be coupled as , where the are independent rate-one exponential random variables. The strong law of large numbers gives almost surely, so the jump times tend to infinity and the chain cannot explode.