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First, convergence in probability at $t=0$ gives $X_0=0$ almost surely, since every $X_0^n=0$. For any finite set of times, the corresponding vectors converge in probability: the union bound controls the probability that any coordinate differs by more than a fixed tolerance. The same holds for their increment vectors, hence also for their convergence in distribution.

For $0=t_0<t_1<\cdots <t_m$, set $D_j^n=X_{t_j}^n-X_{t_{j-1}}^n$ and $D_j=X_{t_j}-X_{t_{j-1}}$. The characteristic function of a random vector factors for the independent increments of each $X^n$:Pass to the limit using convergence in distribution and bounded continuous functions. The resulting factorization of the characteristic function of a random vector, with the uniqueness theorem for characteristic functions, proves independence of the $D_j$. Similarly $X_{s+t}^n-X_s^n\stackrel{d}{=}{X}_t^n$ passes to the limit, proving stationary increments for $X$.

It remains to prove stochastic continuity. For $\epsilon >0$, the triangle inequality and the union bound imply, for every fixed $n$,The second term vanishes by stochastic continuity of $X^n$. Now let $n\to \infty$ and use the additional near-zero approximation hypothesis. We obtain $X_t\to 0$ in probability as $t\downarrow 0$. The stationary increments transfer this to every time: both $X_{s+h}-X_s$ and $X_s-X_{s-h}$ have the law of $X_h$ for $h>0$ when defined. Thus $X$ has all the intrinsic Lévy process properties, proving closure of Lévy processes under locally controlled convergence in probability.

If one requires the supplied process itself to be càdlàg, the hypotheses justify a càdlàg modification, rather than that stronger pathwise assertion. To see the distinction, take $X^n\equiv 0$, let $U$ have uniform distribution on $(0,1)$, and put $X_t=1_{\{t=U\}}$. At each fixed time $t$, $X_t=0$ almost surely, so both approximation hypotheses hold with zero error probability. Nevertheless every path has an isolated spike at $U$ and is not right-continuous there. Its identically zero modification of a stochastic process is a Lévy process with càdlàg paths. The conclusion is exact under the intrinsic definition, and exact up to modification under the convention requiring càdlàg paths.

The familywise error rate is the probability of rejecting at least one true null:A valid p-value is super-uniform under its null: $\mathbb{P}(p_i\le t)\le t$ for $0\le t\le 1$. The Bonferroni correction rejects $H_i$ if $p_i\le \alpha /m$. The union bound givesThis controls the familywise error rate for every configuration of true and false nulls, without any independence assumption on the p-values.

For a nonempty index set $I\subseteq \{1,\dots ,m\}$, the intersection hypothesis $H_I={\bigcap }_{i\in I}{H}_i$ asserts that every null indexed by $I$ holds. The closure of a family of statistical hypotheses consists of all these nonempty intersections, including the original hypotheses. For each intersection choose a local test ${\varphi }_I$ of size at most $\alpha$ under $H_I$. Such tests always exist: for example, within $I$ use the Bonferroni correction, rejecting $H_I$ if ${\min }_{i\in I}{p}_i\le \alpha /|I|$. More powerful local intersection tests can be substituted whenever valid.

The closed testing procedure rejects an elementary hypothesis $H_i$ only when every local test ${\varphi }_I$ with $i\in I$ rejects its intersection hypothesis. If $I_0\ne \varnothing$, the intersection $H_{I_0}$ is true. Rejecting any true $H_i$ requires rejection by its local test ${\varphi }_{I_0}$, soIf $I_0=\varnothing$, there is no possible false rejection. This proves closed-testing control of the familywise error rate. The same argument applies if intersection hypotheses themselves are reported as rejected: requiring all their supersets to reject includes $I_0$ whenever the reported intersection is true.

Finally, consider the given hierarchical family as a laminar family of sets. Call a set $I\in \mathcal{I}$ true when $I\subseteq I_0$, so its entire intersection hypothesis is true. Let $\mathcal{M}$ be the inclusion-maximal true sets in $\mathcal{I}$. Distinct members of $\mathcal{M}$ are disjoint: if they met, laminarity would make one contain the other, contradicting maximality. Consequently,Every true set $I$ lies in a maximal true $J$. If $H_I$ is rejected by the prescribed adjusted p-value rule, the maximum over its ancestors includes $J$, henceThus the event of any false rejection is contained in the union of these events over the disjoint maximal true sets. Using validity of each $p_J$ under its true intersection and the union bound,Equivalently, with probability at least $1-\alpha$ every rejection is correct. This proves familywise error control for a laminar hypothesis family. It requires neither independence nor the presence of all possible intersections or singletons in $\mathcal{I}$. Empty index sets are excluded, as required by the denominator $|J|$; if there are no true sets the result is immediate. Adjusted values exceeding one can be truncated at one without changing decisions for $\alpha <1$.

The relevant fixed coordinate subspace is $\{(u,0):u\in {\mathbb{R}}^k\}$. Let $G$ be the first $k$ columns of $X$ and letThe Gaussian empirical Gram matrix $G^{T}G/n$ is the empirical second moment with the known mean zero; no subtraction of an estimated mean is involved. For $\theta =(u,0)$, the ratio under consideration is $|u^{T}Du|/\Vert u{\Vert }_2^2$. Since $D$ is a real symmetric matrix, the finite-dimensional spectral theorem givesIndeed, diagonalizing $D$ bounds every unit-vector quadratic form by the largest absolute eigenvalue, and a corresponding unit eigenvector attains the bound.

We first construct a unit sphere net from ball covering. Enlarge the numerical covering constant, if necessary, to $A_0\ge 1$. Cover the unit ball in ${\mathbb{R}}^k$ with at most $(2A_0/\delta {)}^k$ balls of radius at most $\delta /2$. For each such ball meeting the unit sphere, choose a point of the sphere in it and discard the others. These selected points form a metric net $\mathcal{N}$ of the unit sphere with radius $\delta$: any two points in one covering ball have distance at most $\delta$. This argument ensures that the net points have unit length even if the original covering centers did not.

Take $\delta =1/4$ and put $B=8A_0$, so $|\mathcal{N}|\le B^k$. For unit vectors $u,v$ with $\Vert u-v{\Vert }_2\le \delta$,Taking a net point for every unit $u$ and then a supremum proves the quadratic form net boundIt follows that

Fix $v\in \mathcal{N}$. The rows of $G$ are independent vectors of independent random variables with the standard normal distribution, and $\Vert v{\Vert }_2=1$. Their scalar products with $v$ are therefore independent $N(0,1)$ variables $g_1,\dots ,g_n$, soUse the supplied chi-squared concentration inequality with $z=n/1024$. Its threshold isConsequently $P(|v^{T}Dv|>1/4)\le 2e^{-n/1024}$. The union bound gives the stronger fixed-subspace estimateThis is Gaussian Gram matrix concentration on a fixed subspace.

Since $1\le k<p$, we have $p\ge 2$. Under $n\ge Ck\log p$,Choose the numerical constant $C\ge 1024(1+\log B/\log 2)$. Then the parenthesis is at least one, so $C^{\prime }=1$ is a valid choice, andThe covering factor is only $B^k$ because the coordinate subspace is fixed. The ambient dimension enters through the assumed sample-size bound.

The Poisson thinning theorem, or its multinomial marking version, makes the bin counts at time $n$ independent Poisson variables with mean $n/n=1$. Independence is more than is needed for the following union bound. Fix $ϵ>0$ and put $x_n=(1+ϵ)\log n/\log \log n$. ThenSincethe logarithm of the upper bound is $-ϵ\log n+o(\log n)\to -\infty$. Thus $\boxed{\mathbb{P}(M_n\ge x_n)\to 0}$. The estimate handles the noninteger threshold directly, since the supplied Poisson tail bound holds for real $x$.

The Szemerédi theorem says that for every integer $k\ge 2$ and every $\delta >0$, there is $N_0(k,\delta )$ such that, for $N\ge N_0$, every $A\subseteq \{1,\dots ,N\}$ with $|A|\ge \delta N$ contains a nonconstant arithmetic progressionEquivalently, every subset of the positive integers with positive upper asymptotic density contains arithmetic progressions of every finite length. Length one is immediate.

The Furstenberg multiple recurrence theorem states that for every probability measure-preserving system, every measurable $B$ with $\mu (B)>0$, and every integer $k\ge 2$, there is $n\ge 1$ withHere $T^{-jn}B$ means a preimage, so invertibility is unnecessary. The Furstenberg multiple recurrence theorem also does not assume an ergodic transformation.

We prove the implication to the finite Szemerédi theorem by constructing the Furstenberg correspondence principle explicitly. Suppose, to the contrary, that for fixed $k$ and $\delta >0$ there are $N_{\ell }\to \infty$ and $A_{\ell }\subseteq \{1,\dots ,N_{\ell }\}$ with $|A_{\ell }|\ge \delta N_{\ell }$, but with no length-$k$ arithmetic progression of positive common difference. In the binary full shift $\Omega =\{0,1{\}}^{\mathbb{Z}}$, encode $A_{\ell }$ as $x_j^{(\ell )}=1_{A_{\ell }}(j)$, taking all coordinates outside $A_{\ell }$ to be zero. Let $S$ be the left shift, $(S\omega {)}_j={\omega }_{j+1}$, and setThe cylinder set $C$ is a clopen set, and ${\nu }_{\ell }(C)=|A_{\ell }|/N_{\ell }\ge \delta$. The binary full shift is a compact metric space, so compactness of probability measures on a compact metric space gives a subsequence of these empirical measures with weak convergence of probability measures to a Borel probability measure $\nu$.

For every continuous $h$ on the full shift,Passing to the weak limit shows that $\nu$ is an invariant measure for the continuous left shift. Thus $(\Omega ,\mathcal{B},\nu ,S)$ is a probability measure-preserving system. Since the indicator function of $C$ is continuous, $\nu (C)\ge \delta$.

Apply the Furstenberg multiple recurrence theorem to $C$. For some $n\ge 1$, the clopen sethas $\nu (D)>0$. Its continuous indicator function gives ${\nu }_{\ell }(D)\to \nu (D)>0$. For large $\ell$, at least one $S^a{x}^{(\ell )}$ in the defining empirical measure therefore belongs to $D$. The choice of left shift impliesso $a,a+n,\dots ,a+(k-1)n$ lies in $A_{\ell }$. This contradicts the assumed absence of arithmetic progressions and proves the finite Szemerédi theorem. Applying the finite Szemerédi theorem on intervals where an infinite set has density bounded below proves the stated upper asymptotic density formulation.

For multiple recurrence for circle rotations, write $\mathbb{T}=\mathbb{R}/\mathbb{Z}$ and $R_{\alpha }x=x+\alpha$, with normalized Lebesgue measure $m$, which is the Haar measure of the circle group. Fix a measurable $B\subseteq \mathbb{T}$ with $m(B)>0$ and $k\ge 2$. If $\alpha$ is rational, there is $q\ge 1$ with $R_{\alpha }^q$ the identity, and $n=q$ gives an intersection of measure $m(B)$.

For irrational $\alpha$, the pigeonhole principle applied to $0,\alpha ,\dots ,Q\alpha$ in $Q$ equal arcs gives $1\le n\le Q$ with $\Vert n\alpha {\Vert }_{\mathbb{T}}\le 1/Q$. In particular there are arbitrarily small nonzero returns to zero for the irrational rotation of the circle.

We also need translation continuity in L1 on the circle. Given a measurable $B$, approximate its indicator function in the L1 norm by a continuous $g$ on the circle group. Such approximation follows from regularity of Lebesgue measure, or approximation by finite unions of intervals. Translation invariance and uniform continuity givewhere the approximation error is first made arbitrarily small. Equivalently, $m(B△(B-t))\to 0$.

Choose a return time $n\ge 1$ so small modulo one that for each $1\le j<k$,This is possible because multiplication by each fixed $j$ is continuous on the circle group and translation continuity in L1 on the circle applies to the finitely many translates. The union bound now givesThis proves the Furstenberg multiple recurrence theorem for every circle rotation with its normalized Lebesgue measure, including both rational and irrational angles.

Interpret $Y_n$ as the length of a shortest Euclidean travelling salesman tour, and take the points to be independent random variables with the uniform distribution on the square. We assume $n\ge 2$; a closed tour on one point has length zero, so the printed lower bound would be false for $n=1$. For two points the closed tour traverses the joining segment twice.

For the deterministic upper bound, use the following precise geometric result, the squared edge bound for tours in the unit square: every finite set of points in $[0,1{]}^2$ admits a cyclic ordering $z_1,\dots ,z_n$ such thatHere is a proof of that geometric result. First consider a right triangle with hypotenuse endpoints $a,b$, hypotenuse length $c$, and right-angle vertex $v$. The quadratic path bound in a right triangle supplies a path from $a$ to $b$ through any finite set inside the triangle whose sum of squared edge lengths is at most $c^2$. For an empty set use the edge $ab$. For a single point $z$, use $a,z,b$: the triangle lies in the disk with diameter $ab$, so $\angle azb\ge \pi /2$ and the law of cosines gives $\Vert a-z{\Vert }^2+\Vert z-b{\Vert }^2\le c^2$.

For several points, draw the altitude from $v$ to the hypotenuse. It splits the triangle into two smaller right triangles with hypotenuses $av$ and $vb$. Their squared hypotenuse lengths sum to $c^2$ by the Pythagorean theorem. Repeated altitude subdivision eventually makes every cell small enough to contain at most one of the given distinct points: each child is similar to the original triangle and its diameter contracts by at most the fixed factor $\max (\Vert a-v\Vert ,\Vert b-v\Vert )/c<1$. Construct the base-case paths and combine them from the bottom of this finite subdivision tree. The two child paths concatenate at $v$. If $v$ is an auxiliary point, delete it by joining its two neighbours directly. Both neighbours lie in the right-angle sector of the parent triangle at $v$, so their angle at $v$ is at most $\pi /2$. The law of cosines now shows that this shortcut does not increase the sum of squared edge lengths. The combined path still has endpoints $a,b$ and squared cost at most $c^2$.

One can first put the given points in generic positions, avoiding subdivision boundaries, and then pass to a limit. There are only finitely many possible visiting orders, so a subsequence keeps the same order and its squared cost converges; this also handles coincident locations. No assumption about a minimum separation remains in the result.

Split the square along a diagonal $ab$. Apply the triangle result in each half, following one path from $a$ to $b$ and the other back to $a$. Each half contributes at most $\Vert a-b{\Vert }^2=2$. Remove either diagonal endpoint if it was auxiliary. At a square corner all neighbours lie in a sector of angle $\pi /2$, so the same squared-cost shortcut applies. This gives the asserted cyclic ordering with total squared cost at most four. It does not assert that the tour minimizing ordinary length itself has this squared-edge property. The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality applied to the tour supplied by the theorem provesThus the upper bound is deterministic, independently of the sampling law.

For the lower bound, put $R_i={\min }_{j\ne i}\Vert X_i-X_j\Vert$, the nearest neighbour distance at $X_i$. Both edges incident to $X_i$ in any closed tour have length at least $R_i$. Summing over vertices and then dividing by two gives $Y_n\ge {\sum }_i{R}_i$. Conditional on $X_i=x$, the union bound and the uniform distribution giveBoundary clipping only makes the ball smaller. Apply the layer-cake representation of the expected value, restricting the integral to $0\le t\le 1/(2\sqrt{n})$:Linearity of the expected value now yieldsThe unspecified sampling phrase in the paper must therefore be understood as independent uniform sampling: an arbitrary distribution concentrated in a tiny region cannot satisfy this lower bound.

Let $X_s$ count the copies of the complete graph $K_s$ in the binomial random graph $G_{n,p}$. By linearity of the expected value and independence of distinct edges,Throughout, $n$ is sufficiently large that $k=\lfloor \log \log n\rfloor \ge 2$. We have $k\to \infty$, $k=O(\log \log n)$ and $k\log k=o(\log n)$.

First, since $p=n^{-2/k}$,The first moment method proves $\mathbb{P}(X_{k+1}>0)=o(1)$.

For the existence of a $k$-clique, put $X=X_k$ and $\mu =\mathbb{E}X$. Since $p^{\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{k}{2}\right)}=n^{-(k-1)}$,This alone is insufficient: we must control the variance via the overlap formula for the variance of a clique count. Let $I_S$ indicate that a given $k$-set $S$ spans a clique. If $|S\cap T|=j$, the two copies share $\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{j}{2}\right)$ edges, soFor $j=0,1$ their edge sets are disjoint and the covariance vanishes, even when they share one vertex. Counting ordered pairs of $k$-sets gives the exact formulaThis includes the diagonal case $j=k$.

To bound the overlap factor, regard it as the probability that a uniformly chosen $k$-set $T$ intersects a fixed $S$ in exactly $j$ vertices. A union bound over the possible specified $j$-subsets of $S$ yieldsHere $(a{)}_j=a(a-1)\cdots (a-j+1)$ is a falling factorial, and the last bound holds for $n\ge 2k$. ThereforeFor $2\le j\le k$, the concave quadratic $j(k-j+1)$ is minimized at an endpoint. Its endpoint values are $2(k-1)$ and $k$, both at least $k$. Thus every power of $n$ in the last sum is at most $n^{-1}$, andbecause the logarithm of its numerator is $O(k\log k)=o(\log n)$. The second moment method, or Chebyshev's inequality directly, gives $\mathbb{P}(X=0)=o(1)$. Finally, every larger clique contains a $(k+1)$-clique, so the absence of $K_{k+1}$ excludes all larger sizes. The clique number is exactly $k$ with high probability:

The event that infinitely many $A_n$ occur is ${\mathrm{limsup}}_n{A}_n={\bigcap }_{m\ge 1}{\bigcup }_{n\ge m}{A}_n$. For every $m$, the union bound and monotonicity of a probability measure giveThe right-hand side tends to zero as the tail of a convergent series. Therefore the first Borel-Cantelli conclusion isThis proves the Borel-Cantelli first lemma without any independence assumption.

First, the Cramér model has infinitely many successes almost surely, so every $P_n$ is finite. Indeed, for each fixed $K\ge 3$, independence of the Bernoulli random variables givesThe sum diverges, for example because $1/\log j\ge 1/j$ for $j\ge 3$. Continuity from above of a measure and a countable union bound exclude a final success.

Fix $ϵ>0$ and put $L_k=\lceil (1+ϵ)(\log k{)}^2\rceil$. Let $A_k$ be the event that the whole interval $k+1,\dots ,k+L_k$ consists of failures. By independence and $1-v\le e^{-v}$,Since $L_k=o(k)$, the exponent divided by $\log k$ tends to $-(1+ϵ)$. Thus $\mathbb{P}(A_k)\le k^{-1-ϵ/2}$ for all sufficiently large $k$. The Borel-Cantelli first lemma shows that almost surely every sufficiently large such interval contains a success. Taking $k=P_n$ then gives $P_{n+1}-P_n\le L_{P_n}$ for all sufficiently large $n$.

For each fixed $ϵ$, the limit superior of the normalized gap is therefore at most $1+ϵ$ almost surely. Intersect the probability-one events for $ϵ=1/r$, $r\in \mathbb{N}$, to obtain the Cramér model prime-gap upper bound:

Use integer graph vertices in the boxes: ${\Lambda }_n=[-n,n{]}^2\cap {\mathbb{Z}}^2$, and set ${\Lambda }_{-1}=\varnothing$. Thus $\partial {\Lambda }_0=\{0\}$, $g_0=1$, and $|\partial {\Lambda }_m|=8m$ for $m\ge 1$.

If $0\leftrightarrow \partial {\Lambda }_{m+n}$, erase loops from an open graph path to obtain a self-avoiding walk. Let $x$ be its first graph vertex on $\partial {\Lambda }_m$. Split at $x$. The prefix certifies $A_x=\{0\leftrightarrow x\}$, while a segment of the suffix certifies $B_x=\{x\leftrightarrow x+\partial {\Lambda }_n\}$: the final graph vertex is at supremum norm distance at least $n$ from $x$, so the suffix first hits that translated boundary. The two certificates use disjoint edges. Therefore the BK boundary-splitting estimate, the union bound, the van den Berg-Kesten inequality, and translation invariance giveThe cases $m=0$ or $n=0$ follow directly from $g_0=1$, so this proves the bound including the endpoints.

Here is an explicit way to remove the polynomial boundary factor. For $p>0$ put $b_n=32n^2{g}_n$, $n\ge 1$. By symmetry in $m,n$, assume $m\le n$. ThenConsequently $a_n=\log b_n$ is a subadditive sequence. The Fekete lemma states that any real subadditive sequence satisfies $\lim a_n/n={\inf }_{n\ge 1}{a}_n/n$, possibly $-\infty$. In this case the direct horizontal open graph path gives $g_n\ge p^n$, so this limit of a sequence is bounded below by $\log p$. Since $g_n\le 1$, its upper bound is zero. Finally,has the same limit of a sequence. Thus the percolation one-arm decay rate exists andFor $p=0$, every $g_n$ with $n\ge 1$ is zero and $\gamma =0$. No exponential-decay theorem or assumption that $p$ is below the percolation critical probability is needed.

The union bound gives $g_k\le {\sum }_{x\in \partial {\Lambda }_k}{\mathbb{P}}_p(0\leftrightarrow x)$. Hence some boundary graph vertex has percolation two-point connection probability at least $g_k/(8k)$. The rotations and reflections of the square lattice let us choose such a graph vertex as $x=(k,j)$, $-k\le j\le k$. Reflection in the vertical line through $x$ sends $0$ to $e_{2k}=(2k,0)$ and fixes $x$. ThereforeThe Harris-FKG inequality applied to these two increasing events proves the reflection lower bound for two-point percolation:Every graph path from $0$ to $e_{2k}$ reaches $\partial {\Lambda }_{2k}$, so $h_{2k}\le g_{2k}$. Taking roots givesBoth outside expressions have limit of a sequence $\gamma$, proving the even case. For $p>0$, the Harris-FKG inequality with the last horizontal edge gives $h_{2k+1}\ge p{h}_{2k}$, and also $h_{2k+1}\le g_{2k+1}$. The lower bound has rootThe upper bound has the same limit of a sequence. At $p=0$ all positive-distance connection probabilities vanish. Thus ${\lim }_{n\to \infty }{h}_n^{1/n}=\gamma$ for every $p\in [0,1]$.

Write $H(R)$ and $V(R)$ for the horizontal and vertical open-crossing increasing events of a rectangle in the rotated square lattice. At parameter $1/2$, planar duality for rectangle crossings says that failure of $H$ is exactly a closed dual vertical crossing. Quarter-turn symmetry and the boundary convention of the rotated rectangles identify the two alternatives on a square. Thus its crossing probability is $1/2$; a rectangle obtained by a harmless one-step boundary adjustment has crossing probability at least $1/2$. This is the finite-domain exact self-dual rectangle crossing probability, not an assumption about infinite percolation clusters.

We first prove a RSW reflection extension lemma. In coordinate units adapted to the rotated drawing, take $S=[0,n{]}^2$, $T=[-n,n{]}^2$, and $R=[-n,2n]\times [-n,n]$. Reveal the rightmost open vertical crossing $\Gamma$ of $S$, when one exists, using only its edges and the region to its right. Reflect $\Gamma$ across the horizontal axis. The part $D$ of $T$ to the left of these two paths remains unexposed and has the independent parameter-$1/2$ law. A horizontal crossing of $T$ must reach their union. Its probability is at least $1/2$. Reflection symmetry and the union bound give a probability at least $1/4$ of reaching the upper path $\Gamma$ through $D$. Conditional opening of the edges on $\Gamma$ can only help. Since $V(S)$ has probability at least $1/2$, the increasing event $B$ that a vertical crossing of $S$ is connected inside $T$ to its left side has probability at least $1/8$.

Reflect this construction in the vertical midline of $S$ to obtain an increasing event $B^{\prime }$ of the same probability, connecting a vertical crossing of $S$ to the right side of $[0,2n]\times [-n,n]$. On $H(S)\cap B\cap B^{\prime }$, the horizontal crossing of $S$ meets both vertical crossings, so all three graph paths join and give $H(R)$. The Harris-FKG inequality now yieldsThe exploration only conditions the exposed side of the extremal graph path; reflecting a drawn path does not assert that its reflected edges are open. This distinction is what makes the extension argument valid.

To pass from aspect ratio $3/2$ to $3$, put four rectangles of width $3h/2$ and height $h$ next to each other, with successive left boundaries separated by $h/2$. Adjacent rectangles overlap in a square of side $h$. Require horizontal crossings of the four rectangles and vertical crossings of the three overlap squares. Every consecutive pair of horizontal crossings meets the vertical crossing in its overlap; together they form a horizontal crossing of width $3h$. The Harris-FKG inequality gives a strictly positive bound, for these compatible scales, ofThe construction works on the rotated square lattice with the boundary sites used in the source drawing. Integer roundings do not create a scale restriction: for an odd height use the largest smaller compatible even height, and use eight horizontal rectangles and seven overlap squares, whose union has auxiliary aspect ratio $5$, so that its width exceeds the desired $3m$ width for all sufficiently large $m$. Truncate its horizontal crossing on first reaching the desired right side. The number of extra rectangles and overlap-square crossings is bounded independently of $m$, and every factor is bounded below by the same positive constants. The finitely many smallest rectangles each have positive crossing probability, since a specified finite open graph path suffices. Therefore a constant $c>0$ works at every integer scale. Taking $\tau =c/2$ ensures the requested strict inequality:This proves the required instance of the Russo-Seymour-Welsh theorem through reflection, exploration and gluing. The parameter in this calculation is $1/2$.

First obtain a polynomial critical one-arm upper bound from part (a). Fix a sufficiently large integer radius $r$. Use rotated-coordinate boxes $B_r=[-r,r{]}^2$ for this geometric construction, in the axes of part (a). Surround $B_r$ by a square ring inside $B_{3r}$. It can be assembled from the four stripsThe first two require horizontal dual crossings; the last two require vertical dual crossings. Their corner overlaps are squares, so the adjacent long crossings intersect there and their union contains a dual graph cycle surrounding the inner box. Translate the strips by the half-lattice displacement of the planar dual graph and adjust the endpoints by one lattice unit if needed. All aspect ratios remain bounded. Part (a) and the same overlap gluing give a uniform lower bound $c_1>0$ for each dual crossing at $1/2$. Applying the Harris-FKG inequality to these decreasing events in the primal configuration gives a closed dual circuit with probability at least $\delta =c_1^4>0$. We may replace $\delta$ by a smaller number in $(0,1)$.

Use the independent annular barriers for percolation at radii $r_j=r_{0}10^j$. Their supporting edge sets are disjoint, so the circuit events are independent. In the original unrotated coordinates, $B_{3r}$ lies inside ${\Lambda }_{5r}$ and the ring still separates the origin from infinity. These fixed geometric comparisons let us bound the original $g_N$. An open graph path from $0$ to distance $N$ must avoid every such closed dual circuit inside ${\Lambda }_N$. Thus, for some constants $C<\infty$ and $\alpha >0$,where the first bound is used only when at least one of the indicated rings fits; increasing $C$ handles smaller $N$.

Now let $\epsilon =p-1/2>0$ and use the monotone coupling of Bernoulli percolation on edges. The event $\{0\leftrightarrow \partial {\Lambda }_N\}$ only needs edges whose endpoints lie in ${\Lambda }_N$, because a first boundary hit gives an internal graph path. There are exactly $4N(2N+1)$ such edges. Each changes state between parameters $1/2$ and $p$ with probability $\epsilon$. The union bound therefore gives the finite-box comparison for percolation parametersFor sufficiently small $\epsilon$, choose $N=\lfloor {\epsilon }^{-1/(\alpha +2)}\rfloor$, so that $N$ is at least half the unrounded value. Both terms then have order ${\epsilon }^{\alpha /(\alpha +2)}$. In particular,for a finite $A$. Increase $A$ to cover the remaining compact range of parameters by $\theta (p)\le 1$. This near-critical percolation power upper bound requires only a positive crossing constant, not the exact value of a critical exponent. It also implies $\theta (1/2)=0$ through the critical one-arm probability bound.

Fix the normalizationThe Lasso penalty uses the L1 norm. All arguments below apply to every minimizer; uniqueness of the coefficient vector is not assumed.

The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are the subgradient optimality conditionThese conditions are necessary and sufficient because the objective is a convex function. They use the subgradient of the absolute value, coordinate by coordinate.

Put $\delta =\hat{\beta }-{\beta }^0$. Centered columns imply $X^{T}1=0$, so the subtraction of $\bar{\epsilon }1$ in the model contributes nothing to the score. The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions becomeMultiply by ${\delta }^T$. Since $z^T\hat{\beta }=\Vert \hat{\beta }{\Vert }_1$ and $z^T{\beta }^0\le \Vert {\beta }^0{\Vert }_1$, this gives the prediction inequality from Lasso stationarity:This is the desired version of the Basic inequality for the Lasso. Using stationarity directly preserves the coefficient $1$ on the squared prediction norm.

For the Gaussian score event for the Lasso, write $X_j$ for column $j$. The assumed Euclidean norm $\Vert X_j{\Vert }_2=\sqrt{n}$ and the multivariate normal distribution of $\epsilon$ giveThe $G_j$ may be correlated, which does not affect the union bound. Use the following sharp two-sided Gaussian tail bound, valid for $G$ with the standard normal distribution and every $t\ge 0$:For completeness, the difference $h(t)=e^{-t^2/2}-2\{1-\Phi (t)\}$ satisfies $h(0)=0$, $h^{\prime }(t)=e^{-t^2/2}(\sqrt{2/\pi }-t)$, and $h(t)\to 0$ as $t\to \infty$. It first increases and then decreases to zero, so it is nonnegative. This bound avoids introducing an unnecessary factor two.

Here $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function. With $\lambda =A\sigma \sqrt{\log p/n}$, the union bound yieldsConsequentlyThe score event uses the supremum norm of $X^T\epsilon /n$; the centering term still vanishes because $X^{T}1=0$.

We next work deterministically on $\Omega$. LetBy Holder inequality, ${\epsilon }^{T}X\delta /n\le c\lambda \Vert \delta {\Vert }_1=c\lambda (a+b)$. Since ${\beta }_N^0=0$, the triangle inequality givesSubstituting both inequalities into the Basic inequality for the Lasso producesBecause $Q\ge 0$, this also proves the relevant Lasso cone condition, $(1-c)b\le (1+c)a$. The assumed Compatibility condition for the Lasso therefore applies to $\delta$:Set $D=(1+c)\lambda \sqrt{s}/\varphi$. Combining these inequalities givesIf $Q>0$, discarding the nonnegative $b$ term shows $\sqrt{Q}\le D$. If $Q=0$, compatibility gives $a=0$, and the preceding inequality then gives $b=0$. In either case $D\sqrt{Q}\le D^2$, soThis is a fast prediction bound and an inactive-coordinate error bound on the same event. It is the fast-rate Lasso prediction bound under compatibility.