Affine autoregressive process 2026-10-05
An autoregressive process of order one with independent and identically distributed random variables as innovations is an affine process when the innovation exponential moments are finite. Its one-step coefficients are and , where is the innovation cumulant-generating function.
Aggregate claims model 2026-10-06
An aggregate claims model separates the number of claims from their sizes , with total and the empty sum equal to zero. Under independent and identically distributed random variables for claim sizes, independent of , conditional expectation gives tractable moments and transforms.
Bernoulli source Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
Bühlmann model Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
Given a latent risk parameter , observations are independent and identically distributed random variables with conditional expectation and conditional variance . The Bühlmann credibility premium estimates by an affine function of past observations under mean squared error. Its population parameters are , expected process variance , and variance of hypothetical means .
Canonical model of an independent and identically distributed sequence Created 2026-09-29 Updated 2026-10-03
For a probability law on , take the sequence space with product measure . The coordinate maps are an independent and identically distributed sequence with common law , and they generate the product sigma-algebra.
For independent and identically distributed random variables that are integrable random variables, with , symmetry gives . The decreasing sigma-algebras generated by these future sums permit application of the reverse martingale convergence theorem.
Empirical characteristic function Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
For a sample , is the characteristic function of the sample's empirical measure. For independent and identically distributed random variables, and , without any moment condition on the observations.
Exchangeable random variables Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
A family of random variables is exchangeable if its joint probability distribution is unchanged by finite permutations of its coordinates. Independent and identically distributed random variables are exchangeable, but exchangeable random variables need not be independent random variables.
Exponential martingale of a random walk Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
For a random walk with independent and identically distributed random variables as increments and finite moment-generating function at , put . Then is a martingale by conditioning on the next independent increment. In particular, if and , then is a martingale. Stopping at a finite interval exit can make this process bounded, allowing the dominated convergence theorem to justify passage from bounded stopping times to the exit time.
For independent and identically distributed random variables with law , is a nonnegative martingale, since the increment's moment-generating function equals one at parameter two. The Doob maximal inequality gives for the all-time maximum . Integrating the tail gives the displayed bound. For , . The strong law of large numbers guarantees finiteness and attainment of the maximum because .
Exponential moment of a renewal count Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
For nonnegative finite independent and identically distributed random variables as inter-arrivals with positive probability of exceeding , write . The count tail is bounded by , which has geometric decay times a polynomial in . Hence for every fixed finite and sufficiently small .
Fair-coin doubling martingale 2026-10-05
For fair independent and identically distributed random variables with the Bernoulli distribution, is a nonnegative martingale. It has almost sure convergence to zero but , so it lacks convergence in L1.
Fixed-design nonparametric regression 2026-10-05
The fixed-design nonparametric regression model observes at deterministic design points . For independent and identically distributed random variables with the standard normal distribution, comparing two mean functions has Kullback-Leibler divergence .
Gaussian rotation interpolation inequality 2026-10-06
For independent and identically distributed random variables with a centered multivariate normal distribution, a continuously differentiable function with bounded gradient, and a convex function for which the expressions are integrable, the displayed inequality holds. First apply Jensen inequality conditionally to . For the Gaussian rotation of independent copies, the chain rule gives . A second application of Jensen inequality to the uniform measure on , followed by the Gaussian rotation of independent copies, proves the inequality. The useful choice yields a Gaussian concentration inequality through an exponential moment of an absolute standard normal variable.
Gaussian rotation of independent copies 2026-10-06
If are independent and identically distributed random variables with a centered multivariate normal distribution and covariance matrix , then has the same probability law as . Its two marginal covariance matrices are and its cross-covariance is zero. The pair has a multivariate normal distribution, so the two components are independent. This remains valid when is singular.
Geometric-sum moment-generating function 2026-10-07
For a geometric distribution count on the positive integers, independent of independent and identically distributed random variables , the moment-generating function of is the displayed expression. Condition on the count and sum a geometric series. For real , the finite domain requires and . Positive summands always permit , even when no positive exponential moment exists; this gives a Laplace transform of a nonnegative random variable. The aggregate has no mass at zero when all summands are strictly positive.
A one-dimensional Brownian motion spends an infinite total time in every nonempty open interval almost surely. To prove this for after first hitting zero, alternate exits from that interval with returns to zero. By recurrence of one-dimensional Brownian motion all these stopping times are finite, and the Strong Markov property makes the successive exit durations independent and identically distributed random variables that are strictly positive. Some fixed positive duration is exceeded with positive probability, so the Borel-Cantelli lemma makes the sum of the durations infinite. Translate and scale for other intervals. In particular, if a nonnegative function is bounded below by a positive constant on such an interval, its infinite-horizon Brownian occupation time integral diverges. Recurrent visits alone, without this duration argument, would not prove divergence of an integral.
Integrability of a stopped random-walk increment Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
Let be integrable independent and identically distributed random variables, and let be a stopping time for their natural filtration, with . Since is measurable before is observed, independence and the Tonelli theorem give . The event need not be independent of , so the selected increment can be biased.
Kernel density estimation Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
Max-stable distribution 2026-10-06
A non-degenerate distribution function is max-stable when every sample maximum of independent and identically distributed random variables can be positively scaled and centered to have the original law. Thus for every integer there are with . The extremal types theorem classifies these laws, up to affine changes, as the Gumbel distribution, Fréchet distribution, and negative Weibull distribution.