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Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2021 1 a iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Write , with the natural logarithm. The likelihood function and log-likelihood function areThe score function is and the second derivative is . Thus the log-likelihood function is strictly concave, its stationary point is the unique global maximum, and the maximum-likelihood estimator isThe one-observation Fisher information is . The support of a probability distribution here is independent of , so the regular asymptotic normality of a maximum likelihood estimator givesThere is also a direct check: has an exponential distribution with rate , since for . Its mean and variance are and . Apply the central limit theorem to and the delta method to to obtain the same result.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2021 1 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Using the raw moments from part (i), the variance of one observation isThe central limit theorem for the independent statistical sample givesFor , its derivative at the mean is . The delta method therefore givesEquivalently, the large-sample normal approximation isHere denotes the leading asymptotic variance, rather than an assertion about an exact finite-sample variance.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2021 1 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For the beta distribution with parameters , the Euler beta function gives . Its probability density function is therefore on . Direct integration gives the raw momentsIn particular, its mean is . Equating this to the sample mean and rearranging givesThe observations lie strictly between zero and one with probability one, so and this method of moments estimator is well defined and positive. This is an instance of estimation of a beta shape parameter.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 c iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For one Bernoulli random variable,Its variance is , so the expected Fisher information and Jeffreys prior areThe normalizer is . ThereforeThis Jeffreys prior for a Bernoulli parameter is proper despite its integrable endpoint singularities. It is the arcsine distribution. It replaces the specified prior distribution in part (a) when the Jeffreys prior rule is chosen; it is not one of those restricted priors.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 c ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
The Jeffreys prior is invariant under smooth one-to-one reparameterization. This means that applying the rule directly in a new parameter gives the same prior distribution as first constructing the rule for and then transforming its prior density by the change-of-variable formula.
More explicitly, for a differentiable invertible change of parameter with nonzero derivative,Thus and represent the same measure, up to the normalization constant. Invariance concerns the measure: the numerical values of the prior densities need not be equal in the two coordinates. The same change of variables then makes the posterior distributions agree. This is the reparameterization invariance of Jeffreys prior.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 c i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For a scalar statistical parameter in a regular model with probability mass function , define the one-observation expected Fisher information byThe Jeffreys prior is the prior density specified, up to a factor independent of , byFor independent observations the Fisher information is , so the factor does not change this prior distribution. If is finite, divide by this integral to normalize; otherwise the rule defines an improper prior.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Put and as in part (a), and let be the cumulative distribution function of the beta distribution . The two endpoint equations areThe first equation fixes the posterior probability, and the second makes the two endpoint posterior densities equal. Their admissible ordering isTo justify sufficiency and uniqueness, the derivative of the logarithm of the posterior density iswhich is positive below and negative above it. Thus the posterior density increases strictly to its unique mode and decreases strictly thereafter, vanishing at both ends. Each density threshold between zero and the maximum determines exactly one endpoint on each side of . The probability between these endpoints decreases continuously and strictly from one to zero as increases, so exactly one threshold gives 0.95. This is the beta highest posterior density endpoint characterization.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 b i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For a specified posterior probability , an interval is a highest posterior density interval ifand every included point has posterior density at least as large as every excluded point, apart from boundary and null-set choices. Equivalently, is a level set , with possible choices on its boundary, whose posterior probability is .
This selects the most densely supported values of the statistical parameter. When the relevant level set is one interval and has no plateau of positive probability, it is the shortest credible interval of that posterior probability. With several separated peaks, the corresponding highest density region can instead be disconnected, so an interval need not exist. The definition is in the stated parameter coordinate: posterior density ordering can change under a nonlinear change of parameter.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Conditional on , the future Bernoulli random variable is independent of the observed statistical sample and has success probability . Its posterior predictive probability is therefore the posterior mean of . Put and . Thenusing the beta-gamma identity and the Gamma function recurrence. HenceThe whole posterior predictive distribution of is the Bernoulli distribution with this success probability.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 3 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Let . The Bernoulli distribution likelihood function is . Multiplication by the beta distribution prior density and Bayes' theorem giveRecognizing the normalized beta distribution,This is Beta-binomial conjugacy; the same update applies whether the data are recorded as the individual Bernoulli trials or their success count.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 2 c ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Under the null hypothesis, the full model has two free positive statistical parameters and the constrained model has one. The Wilks theorem therefore givesas both sample sizes tend to infinity, with tending to a number strictly between zero and one. For the observed , calculateThe large-sample p-value is the upper-tail probabilitywhere is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution. The last equality uses the fact that the square of a standard normal random variable has a chi-squared distribution with one statistical degree of freedom. Values of on either side of are already included by the transformation to .
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 2 c i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Put , and . Independence gives the likelihood functionThe unrestricted maximum-likelihood estimators are and . Under the null hypothesis, the common mean maximizes at . These are maxima because each one-parameter score function has the sign of its observed sum minus its sample size times its proposed mean.
Define the generalized likelihood ratio to be the constrained maximum divided by the unrestricted maximum. The exponential factors cancel, givingSince and ,It has maximum one at , when the two fitted means agree, and is small toward either endpoint. A likelihood-ratio test rejects for small , or equivalently large . This is the likelihood-ratio test for equality of exponential means.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 1 b iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Write and , with . Two exact facts about a normal sample areand independence of the normal sample mean and sample variance holds. A chi-squared distribution with statistical degrees of freedom is a sum of independent variables, each with mean one and variance two. The central limit theorem therefore givesFor , the derivative at is because . The delta method gives the asymptotic normality of a normal sample standard deviation:The exact independence of and makes their limiting normal distributions independent. Consequently,ThusThis has the same leading asymptotic variance as . The weights and are those in the optimal asymptotic combination of a normal sample mean and standard deviation. This does not require to be an exactly unbiased estimator of .
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 1 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Let be the standard normal quantile. Since is a consistent estimator, Slutsky's theorem givesIts estimated standard error is , giving the approximate Wald confidence intervalFor each fixed , this procedure's coverage probability tends to . Intersecting with the positive parameter space preserves coverage of the true positive value.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 1 b i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Put , and . The normal distribution model givesand, up to a constant independent of , its log-likelihood function isThe score function and its zero equation areFor , this quadratic equation has exactly one positive root, giving the maximum-likelihood estimatorThe numerator of the score function is positive between its negative and positive roots and negative above its positive root. Thus the likelihood function increases up to and decreases afterwards: this is its unique global maximum on . Also, at both ends. The all-zero observation vector has probability zero; on that exceptional vector and there is no attained maximum.
The second derivative and the relevant moments areTherefore the expected Fisher information isThe support of a probability distribution is the whole real line, independent of the positive statistical parameter. The law of large numbers gives and in probability, so the displayed maximum-likelihood estimator is a consistent estimator. The regular asymptotic normality of a maximum likelihood estimator now yieldsThus the requested leading asymptotic variance on the unscaled estimator's scale is . The normal mean proportional to standard deviation model provides a reusable version of this calculation.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 1 a iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For a Bernoulli distribution with fixed , the mean and variance are and . The odds transformation has derivative . Applying the delta method from part (ii),More precisely, converges to a normal distribution of mean zero and variance , after defining the statistic arbitrarily on . That exceptional event has probability , so this extension does not change the limit. The unextended ratio is undefined there and has no finite exact variance if interpreted as infinite. At it is zero almost surely; at the denominator is always zero. This is the delta method for Bernoulli odds.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 1 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For , the central limit theorem givesIf is differentiable at , the delta method applies to the first-order expansionwhere the remainder notation means that its product with tends to zero in probability. HenceThe useful nondegenerate normal approximation requires . When , the first-order limit is zero and a higher-order expansion may be needed.
Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford 2017 1 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For the independent statistical sample, write the likelihood function and log-likelihood function asThe expected Fisher information in the whole statistical sample isUnder the regularity conditions that permit differentiation under the integral sign, the score function has expected value zero andFor an interior statistical parameter, assuming identifiability and , the regular asymptotic normality of a maximum likelihood estimator statesThus the large-sample normal approximation is . The inverse information is the leading sampling variance approximation; the displayed convergence specifies its precise asymptotic meaning.
Past exam of the solid mechanics course of the University of Oxford 2023 3 c ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
For this homogeneous motion, suppose the matrix is symmetric. Put . The acceleration potential of a homogeneous motion iswhere is arbitrary. When taking the spatial gradient, , , , and are fixed. Symmetry givesThis verifies the potential directly and also proves sufficiency of the symmetric matrix condition within the static-family setting. Its dimension is , so the pressure correction has the dimension of stress. Combining with part (b)(ii), the corresponding dynamic Cauchy stress tensor iswhere . Substituting its divergence into the Cauchy momentum equation reproduces , as required.
Past exam of the solid mechanics course of the University of Oxford 2023 3 c i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Take two time derivatives at fixed reference position :The constraint ensures that the deformation gradient is invertible, so . Thus the spatial material acceleration is the affine vector fieldIts spatial gradient is , and its curl isPart (b)(iii) therefore requiresEquivalently, multiplying on the left by and on the right by givesThe translation contributes no spatial curl and is unrestricted by this condition. A useful equivalent first integral isthe antisymmetric matrix in parentheses must be constant, and need not vanish. The separate constraint is still required; differentiating it also gives .
The condition is understood in the setting of part (b), where a static family already exists under the prescribed body force. For a homogeneous elastic deformation gradient, the elastic stress is spatially constant. Static balance of linear momentum consequently gives , ensuring that has a scalar potential. If the static-family assumption were dropped and an arbitrary time-independent body force allowed, the general necessary condition would instead be .
Pinned article: Introduction to the OurBigBook Project
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Intro to OurBigBook
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