Boundary bias of a kernel density estimator 2026-10-14
If the unknown probability distribution is supported on , an ordinary Gaussian density kernel still puts some fitted probability below zero. For positive observations and the standard normal distribution cumulative distribution function , the displayed formula gives the total leakage. For the statistical sample and smoothing bandwidth , it isThus about of the fitted probability falls outside the known support of a probability distribution, even though the full integral remains one. The leakage panel in smoothing bandwidth shades this area. Simply deleting the negative part leaves area ; renormalizing it makes another probability density function but does not by itself establish that the bias of an estimator has been corrected.
The issue also appears in the expectation of the kernel density estimator. For a nonnegative symmetric kernel for density estimation and a probability density function that is zero for and has a finite positive right-hand limit , assume is bounded. Then, for fixed as ,Half the averaging window lies on the impossible side of the boundary. For example, the rate-one exponential distribution has , so the limiting expected boundary height is , rather than the right-hand height one. This refers to estimating the right-hand limit; changing a probability density function at a single point does not change its probability distribution. Decreasing the smoothing bandwidth narrows the affected region but does not remove this boundary-height error. This is why the interior second-order pointwise bias bound for kernel density estimation cannot be applied across a jump at the boundary.
Canonical kernel for density estimation 2026-10-14
For a nonnegative symmetric unit-integral kernel for density estimation with and , the canonical scaling satisfies . Since and , the unique scale is . Consequently its asymptotic mean integrated squared error is , where is invariant under kernel rescaling. The leading optimal smoothing bandwidth becomes , independent of the kernel shape. Unit second moment is a different normalization and does not have this separation property.
Gaussian kernel density worked example 2026-10-14
Take the realized statistical sample , the Gaussian density kernel and smoothing bandwidth . ThenAt , the three contributions are , , and , because and . Their sum isThis is a probability density function value, not the probability of observing exactly zero. Each of the three component curves has area , despite having a different height at zero.
Let be the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution. The fitted probability of the interval is its area under the kernel density estimator:The shaded area in the diagram is this fitted probability. Its agreement to a few digits with is incidental: the empirical measure gives this interval mass exactly, whereas kernel density estimation redistributes that mass into neighboring intervals.
Integrated squared bias from a density jump Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-07
An uncorrected nonnegative symmetric kernel density estimator can leak an order-one amount across a jump in a probability density function. If its transition region has width proportional to the smoothing bandwidth , the integrated mean squared error includes squared bias of an estimator of order , rather than the order familiar for twice-smooth interior densities. For the unit-width uniform window and the exponential distribution of rate one, the integrated squared bias of an estimator is .
Integrated squared density curvature 2026-10-14
The integrated squared second derivative measures a smooth density's curvature in L2. It supplies the leading integrated squared bias constant of a second-order kernel density estimator. For nonzero second moment , the asymptotic mean integrated squared error has bias term , so greater curvature calls for a smaller smoothing bandwidth.
Kernel density estimation Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be real independent and identically distributed random variables with unknown probability density function , let , and choose a nonnegative, unit-integral kernel for density estimation and a smoothing bandwidth . The kernel density estimator isPlace a bump at every observation and add their contributions. Each bump has area , so for every realized statistical sampleThe change of variables is . Summing the unweighted bumps would give area ; summing just would give area . Those raw sums do not have the normalization of a probability density function.
Unlike a histogram, the construction does not require choosing bin origins, and a Gaussian density kernel gives a smooth curve. Its appeal is that identical local contributions can combine into a probability density function with several peaks without first choosing their number. This makes kernel density estimation useful for exploring an unknown probability distribution and estimating interval probabilities, while the smoothing bandwidth controls how much detail is visible.
Before the statistical sample is observed, is a random function; afterwards it is a fitted probability density function. It is an estimator of the unknown , not the true probability distribution. For fixed , its expectation is the convolution , generally different from , and repeating the sampling changes the fitted curve. The exact mean integrated squared error of a kernel density estimator separates this smoothing bias of an estimator from sampling variance. Allowing signed kernels of order ell retains the formula but can lose nonnegativity.
Kernel for density estimation Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A kernel for density estimation is an integrable function with unit integral. For an ordinary kernel density estimator that is itself a probability density function, takeThus specifies the bump's shape and the smoothing bandwidth specifies its width. The factor preserves area: doubling the smoothing bandwidth doubles the width and halves the height. An even function is a common choice; when its absolute first moment is finite, its mean is zero. Symmetry is useful but is not required for normalization.
The Gaussian density kernel is the standard normal density, . Its rescaled translate is the normal probability density with mean and standard deviation . It is positive everywhere, whereas an Epanechnikov kernel has compact support. With the Gaussian density kernel, the smoothing bandwidth is a standard deviation, not a cutoff beyond which observations have no influence.
The broader convention also allows signed kernels of order ell, such as the flat-top kernel for density estimation, to cancel moments and reduce the bias of an estimator. Their unit integral still normalizes total area, but a resulting kernel density estimator can take negative values and need not be a probability density function. Nonnegativity is therefore an additional condition, not a consequence of unit integral.
Nonparametric statistics Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-18
Nonparametric statistics studies statistical inference without restricting the unknown probability distribution or target function to a fixed finite-dimensional parametric statistical model. In density estimation and nonparametric regression, the number of features that an estimator can represent may grow with the sample size. Rank tests offer another approach: the probability distribution of their test statistic under the null hypothesis can be obtained without specifying the common continuous probability distribution.
"Nonparametric" does not mean free of assumptions or tuning choices. A kernel density estimator still requires a kernel for density estimation and a smoothing bandwidth, and its interpretation depends on assumptions about the statistical sample. The freedom is useful when a prescribed shape, such as a single normal distribution, would hide features that the observations might reveal.
Let a bounded probability density function have Fourier transform supported in the plateau of a flat-top kernel for density estimation. At fixed smoothing bandwidth one, the convolution theorem gives , so the kernel density estimator is pointwise unbiased. Its variance is at most , and the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality proves the displayed rate. An explicit example is , with value at zero and transform . Direct inverse Fourier integration gives the formula. The function is nonnegative, integrable and has integral one because its transform at zero is one. Compact frequency support also gives bounded derivatives of every order.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 42 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A kernel for density estimation is an integrable function K of unit integral, ordinarily nonnegative and centered. Square integrability is needed for integrated variance; a symmetric second-order kernel for density estimation also has and finite nonzero second moment . Its scaled form is , and the kernel density estimator isHigher-order signed kernels are possible, but need not give a nonnegative probability density function estimate.
The mean integrated squared error is . Put . Independence gives the pointwise mean and variance . Integrating, use and Fubini to obtain . The bias-variance decomposition proves the exact formulaEquivalently this is . These identities assume the displayed integrals are finite; they are exact, rather than a small-smoothing bandwidth expansion.
For a symmetric second-order kernel for density estimation, Taylor expansion gives leading bias , and the leading integrated variance is . Thus the asymptotic mean integrated squared error balances inverse smoothing bandwidth against fourth-power bias, with optimal smoothing bandwidth . Its appearance of the integrated squared density curvature motivates the scale comparison.
For , , two differentiations give . A change of variables therefore gives , which tends to zero as if the original curvature integral is finite. The distribution with probability density function is that of X divided by a, so . ConsequentlyThis scale-invariant density curvature measures shape without dependence on the units used to measure X.
For the final minimization, write and use the triweight kernel on , zero outside. Integration gives total mass one, mean zero and variance . Its value and its first two derivatives vanish at both endpoints, so its extension is twice continuously differentiable. On the interior,In particular and .
Put . The mass and moment constraints give , since both means vanish and their variances match. If the claim is immediate; otherwise expand the squared norm and integrate its cross term twice by parts over . The first endpoint term vanishes because , but the next one must be retained:For the second equality use the zero mass and second moment of e and outside the support. All terms in the last expression are nonnegative, including the endpoint values of a probability density function. It follows thatThis proves that the triweight density minimizes integrated squared curvature under the specified constraints. Equality forces ; a globally affine integrable difference of probability density functions is zero, so equality occurs only at .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 42 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Assume a symmetric second-order probability density function kernel for density estimation and enough smoothness for the displayed derivative functionals. The benchmark smoothing bandwidth is , balancing against . Three widely used selection methods are as follows.
For least-squares density cross-validation, expand integrated squared error as . Estimate the middle integral by leaving out the observation at which the estimate is evaluated, and minimizeThe left-out observation is independent of its estimator, so the second term has expectation . Thus exactly. The subtraction of the self-contribution is essential. Computation uses , where . This method directly targets integrated error without estimating a curvature functional first. Under standard smoothness and a suitable search interval its selected smoothing bandwidth is ratio-consistent with the MISE optimum, and hence with . Relative fluctuations are ordinarily , so the selected values can be quite variable in finite samples.
For biased density cross-validation, estimate curvature from the second-derivative probability density function estimator and subtract its diagonal variance term:Differentiating the kernel for density estimation estimator and applying the integrated-variance identity gives the exact expectation . Under the derivative regularity assumptions, , so . Minimize BCV over a reasonable smoothing bandwidth range. It is a smoothed criterion directed at AMISE; the name reflects its finite-sample bias rather than an exact unbiased-risk identity. Standard conditions again give ratio consistency and relative fluctuation order . It often has a smoother objective than ordinary least-squares cross-validation, though numerical behavior and relative variance depend on the probability density function and kernel for density estimation.
For plug-in bandwidth selection, obtain an independent pilot scale g, estimate , then setThe pilot should be positive and stable; consistent positive estimates make this expression ratio-consistent by continuity. A simple normal-reference initialization uses under a normal reference model, substituting a sample scale for sigma. For a Gaussian density kernel this gives . A pure normal-reference rule is quick but is asymptotically correctly calibrated only when its assumed curvature matches the actual probability density function; it is useful as the first stage of a data-driven plug-in procedure.
A more adaptive fourth-derivative pilot estimate of density curvature uses , obtained by two integrations by parts, and estimates it byThe diagonal expectation contributes ; the leading smoothing bias is . Balancing these terms produces the stated pilot scale , with another pilot or reference model supplying . Under sufficient derivatives and tail control, its error is bounded byat that pilot scale. Taylor expansion of the fifth-root formula gives , so it inherits that bound. A calibrated cancellation of leading pilot bias can give a faster rate. This illustrates why an appropriately constructed plug-in selector can converge more quickly than cross-validation, while requiring more smoothness and pilot choices. For each ratio-consistent method, its attained AMISE divided by the minimal AMISE tends to one.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 49 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
In kernel density estimation, take a kernel for density estimation that is nonnegative, symmetric, and has integral one, finite , and finite . Its smoothing bandwidth gives and the kernel density estimatorfrom an independent and identically distributed sample with probability density function . Nonnegativity and unit mass make the estimate itself a probability density function. We compare kernel for density estimation shapes by their optimized mean integrated squared error, rather than by their performance at an arbitrarily common numerical smoothing bandwidth.
For the usual second-order theory, assume, for example, that belongs to the Sobolev space and , and let , . The expectation is the convolution . The vanishing first moment of the symmetric kernel for density estimation and the integral Taylor remainder giveContinuity of translations in the L2 norm, with domination by , shows that in the L2 norm. Hence the integrated squared bias of a kernel density estimator isBy independence, the exact integrated variance of a kernel density estimator isIndeed the integrated second moment of a single summand is , and its integrated squared mean is . The latter quantity is bounded by , by Young's convolution inequality, so its contribution is . The bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error therefore yields the leading criterionThis asymptotic mean integrated squared error displays the bias-variance tradeoff: a small smoothing bandwidth increases integrated variance, while a large one increases squared bias of an estimator.
Differentiating the asymptotic mean integrated squared error with respect to gives . It changes sign once, from negative to positive, so its unique minimum isAt this minimum the integrated variance term is four times the squared bias of an estimator term. Substitution givesThus the leading rate is , and the shape comparison reduces to minimizing .
There is an essential scale ambiguity: if , then . Changing the scale of the kernel for density estimation merely changes the numerical convention for the smoothing bandwidth. MoreoverA comparison at the same raw is therefore not a fair comparison of shape. One can normalize the second moment to one, but that does not make the optimal smoothing bandwidth independent of shape.
The canonical kernel for density estimation instead chooses the unique scaleIt satisfies , and soConsequently all canonical kernels share the same leading optimal bandwidth . Only the multiplicative constant depends on shape. This is precisely the separation of shape choice and scale choice that makes the canonical kernel normalization useful. For an original unscaled kernel for density estimation, its corresponding optimal smoothing bandwidth is .
To prove optimal shape, scale a candidate kernel for density estimation to have second moment one. Let andDirect integration gives , , and . Thus is a rescaled Epanechnikov kernel. For any admissible with the same mass and second moment,Outside , and , because . The integral inside is therefore nonnegative, and multiplying by gives . Expanding the square now provesEquality forces almost everywhere. At fixed second moment, minimizing is equivalent to minimizing . Since is scale invariant, this proves the optimality of the Epanechnikov kernel over all nonnegative symmetric second-order kernels for density estimation, including the equality case up to rescaling.
In its usual scale, the optimal Epanechnikov kernel isIts canonical scale is , givingThe optimal Epanechnikov kernel shape is therefore a truncated parabola, rather than a particular support radius. The canonical kernel and unit-second-moment version represent the same shape but different scale conventions.
The numerical gains over other reasonable kernels for density estimation are modest. Define asymptotic relative efficiency against the optimal Epanechnikov kernel by the sample-size fraction giving the same optimized leading mean integrated squared error:For the Gaussian density kernel , and , so its efficiency is . For the uniform smoothing kernel , and , giving efficiency . The Gaussian density kernel is infinitely smooth, whereas the optimal Epanechnikov kernel has compact support and allows each observation to affect only a finite window. Such computational and smoothness considerations may outweigh a small leading-efficiency difference.
In practice is unknown. A plug-in estimator estimates this roughness functional from a pilot estimate of the second derivative and substitutes it into the optimal smoothing bandwidth formula. Alternatively, Leave-one-out cross-validation minimizeswhere uses the other observations. By independence, the expectation of the second term is , so . Thus it targets integrated error without knowing . The choice of smoothing bandwidth remains important: even for the optimal Epanechnikov kernel, setting multiplies the leading minimum error by .
The preceding optimum concerns nonnegative second-order kernels for density estimation and twice-smooth densities on the real line. Signed kernels of order ell can cancel higher moments for smoother densities and yield different rates, but may produce negative density estimates. A support boundary or a density jump also requires separate bias of a kernel density estimator analysis. These settings do not contradict the proved second-order optimality of the Epanechnikov kernel.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 42 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For ordinary homoscedastic fixed-design nonparametric regression, take observations at known distinct sites, with independent mean-zero errors of common variance. A degree- local polynomial estimator at a target solves the finite-dimensional weighted least squares problemHere is a nonnegative regression kernel, is the smoothing bandwidth, and sufficient local design rank ensures uniqueness. The estimate of the regression function is . Each target has its own locally fitted polynomial; this is not one global polynomial fit. The bandwidth controls the localization and the bias-variance tradeoff.
A natural cubic smoothing spline instead solves the global penalized problemThe Sobolev space here consists of functions with square-integrable weak derivatives through order two. The minimizer is a natural cubic spline with knots at the observation sites and linear tails outside the extreme sites. Equivalently one may perform the minimization on that finite-dimensional spline space: the minimum roughness property of the natural cubic spline interpolant shows that replacing a candidate by the natural spline with the same site values preserves the data loss and decreases the second-derivative penalty. The smoothing parameter controls curvature; it differs from the local bandwidth .
For the interval-average observation problem, the printed upper limit in the loss is an indexing error: there are only responses and intervals, so a term with would involve the undefined and . The coherent loss uses the upper limit . Put and define the linear observation functionalsThe intended criterion on is thereforeUnlike the ordinary cubic smoothing spline, this uses interval averages as data and a first-derivative penalty; the resulting spline degree will be two.
Fix any candidate . By the supplied interpolation property, there is a unique quadratic spline with knots , constant on both exterior intervals, such that for every . Put . ThenOn each interior knot interval is a constant , and on the two exterior intervals . Integrate by parts separately on the intervals. At every knot the boundary contributions cancel because both and are continuous; the contributions at and vanish because is zero there. ThusThis orthogonality is the key to the quadratic smoothing spline for interval averages. Expanding the roughness penalty givesThe data-fit terms are equal because the interval averages are equal. Consequently,Equality can occur only if everywhere: the derivative is continuous and its squared integral is zero. Then is constant, and any of its zero interval averages forces that constant to be zero. Therefore every minimizer must equal its matching quadratic spline .
We conclude that the minimizer is a continuously differentiable quadratic spline with knots at the specified sites and constant tails on both exterior intervals. Existence and uniqueness also follow from the supplied interpolation property. The interval-average map identifies the finite-dimensional space of these quadratic splines with , and the criterion becomes a strictly convex quadratic function of that average vector: its data-fit term is , while its penalty is nonnegative and quadratic. It has a unique minimizer, and the strict equality argument above proves uniqueness in the full function class.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 iii Paper 31 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For a kernel for density estimation and smoothing bandwidth , the kernel density estimator isWe use the convention that a kernel of order ell hasThe kernel for density estimation is integrable and can have negative values; requiring nonnegativity would prevent its second moment from vanishing. Some conventions additionally require a nonzero moment of order . The construction below covers that convention too.
The Legendre polynomial kernel construction uses the polynomial reproducing kernel at zero:Every polynomial of degree at most has the expansion , since the displayed Legendre polynomials have those successive degrees and form an orthonormal basis of this polynomial space. ThereforeTaking proves all the required moment identities. Boundedness and compact support give every absolute moment and a finite L2 norm. If a nonzero moment of order is required, replace this kernel byThe lower moments are unchanged by orthogonality. If , then because otherwise would lie in the polynomial space of degree at most . Evaluating its full Legendre expansion at zero gives , so .
For instance, a simple kernel satisfying the moment conditions needed for three derivatives isIts negative wings cancel its central contribution to the second moment.
Signed kernel and cancellation of its second moment
. Details. Here is the third-order pointwise kernel error bound. Write and , and use any square-integrable kernel with unit integral, first two moments zero and . A change of variables givesBy the Taylor theorem with Lagrange remainder,The moment cancellations consequently give the uniform bias of a kernel density estimator boundFor the variance, independence and another change of variables giveThe triangle inequality and Cauchy-Schwarz inequality now yieldBalancing against givesThe constant is independent of both and . The original PDF has exponent ; the converted TeX's is a transcription error.
To obtain the final parametric rate, we choose a flat-top kernel for density estimation. This kernel also satisfies all the preceding moment conditions, so a single kernel works for both constructions, with different bandwidth choices. With the Fourier transform convention , choose a real even function equal to one on and zero outside , and putSuch a cutoff is explicit: if for and zero otherwise, take . It is constant near zero, and its endpoint transitions are smooth. Repeated integration by parts shows that and all its derivatives decay faster than every power, so lies in the Schwartz space. The Fourier inversion and moment differentiation of the Fourier transform giveThus this kernel can be used with for the preceding general bound.
For the sharper example choose the probability density functionTo check this is a density and identify its Fourier transform, direct integration givesThe continuous value at zero is as displayed. This function is nonnegative and integrable, being bounded near zero and at infinity. Fourier inversion gives , and in particular . Differentiation of this compact frequency integral also shows that and are bounded. Since on the support of , the convolution theorem givesBoth sides are continuous, so the equality holds at every . There is therefore exactly zero bias of a kernel density estimator at bandwidth one, and the variance bound above givesThis is parametric-rate kernel estimation of a bandlimited density. A fixed bandwidth is appropriate because it reproduces this particular density exactly; a generic density would retain a nonzero smoothing bias.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 39 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
In fixed-design nonparametric regression, the covariates are deterministic andFor the usual finite-variance model assume independent errors with . In random-design nonparametric regression, the pairs are independent observations and ; equivalently with conditional mean-zero errors. Conditional variances are generally assumed bounded for risk bounds.
For a nonnegative regression kernel and a smoothing bandwidth , the Nadaraya–Watson estimator iswhen the denominator is positive; replace by for random-design nonparametric regression. The local polynomial regression estimator of degree minimizes the weighted least squares criterionand reports . If the weighted Gram matrix is invertible, this minimizer is unique. The Nadaraya-Watson estimator is exactly local polynomial regression of degree zero. Higher degrees reproduce nonconstant polynomials and reduce boundary bias of an estimator.
The requested error bound needs and mean-zero independent errors of uniformly bounded variance, along with the matrix condition in the hint. The degree requirement is missing from the printed question. To see the problem, take , , , zero errors, , and . This regression function has two bounded derivatives, but the local constant estimate is the average of for :The scalar matrix is bounded away from zero for every . Nevertheless , so the printed conclusion with fails. A bounded-variance error hypothesis is also essential; otherwise an expectation bound need not even be finite.
Under the qualified hypotheses, use andThis symmetric Gram matrix has inverse operator norm bounded by the reciprocal of its uniform positive eigenvalue lower bound. If is supported in , only contribute. The equally spaced design and imply that there are at most such points. The bounded kernel and bounded on this interval therefore yieldFor the stochastic part, variance additivity for independent random variables and Cauchy-Schwarz inequality giveFor the deterministic part, let be the Taylor polynomial of at of degree . The polynomial reproduction property of local polynomial regression gives . By Taylor's theorem, on the kernel window. ThusCombining the two parts provesThe argument also applies at the endpoints when the assumed matrix bound holds. With arbitrary degree, the generally valid smoothness term is ; extra symmetry can improve some interior biases but does not fix the general boundary counterexample.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 34 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
For independent and identically distributed random variables sampled from a probability density function , a kernel density estimator with kernel for density estimation and smoothing bandwidth isThe usual kernel for density estimation is nonnegative; finite makes the integrated variance finite. The mean integrated squared error and its bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error areThe interchange is justified by the Tonelli theorem.
For the exponential distribution and the specified unit-width uniform kernel, put . The expected value is . Intersecting this interval with the positive half-line givesOn the true probability density function vanishes, whereasHere for . This leakage across the support boundary proves the integrated squared bias from a density jump:In particular, and suffice. The phenomenon differs from a smooth interior bias of a kernel density estimator: the order-one boundary error persists over a region of width proportional to .
By independence, . Integrating the first term and using yieldsAlso : the kernel density estimator mean is an average of translates of , so the Jensen inequality followed by the Tonelli theorem bounds its squared integral.
To optimize over every , we must establish that useful smoothing bandwidths approach zero, rather than optimize only a formal small- expression. An exact calculation supplies that justification. The autocorrelation integral of the exponential distribution density isAveraging over the two uniform windows, or integrating the piecewise expression for , givesThese formulas show that is continuous on , is strictly positive there because on , and tends to as . Consequently, is bounded away from zero on for every . Its expansion agrees with the supplied .
The choice givesChoose smoothing bandwidths within of the infimum. Their mean integrated squared error tends to zero, and nonnegativity of the integrated variance gives , hence . For any , eventuallyThe last step is the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality. Taking the lower limit and then matches the upper bound. ThusThe original PDF has this constant; the TeX aid's is a transcription error.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 iii Paper 34 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
For fixed-design nonparametric regression, let and . The degree- local polynomial estimator takes the fitted intercept , whereUse a nonnegative regression kernel and an invertible local polynomial Gram matrix to obtain a unique fit. For , solving the single weighted least squares normal equation gives the local constant estimator:At the interior point , use the standard unit-integral regression kernel convention . Otherwise the leading variance below is ; unlike a kernel density estimator, the local constant estimator itself is unchanged by rescaling .
The local constant estimator is a linear estimator in nonparametric regression with weights . The independent unit-variance errors implyTo control the bias of an estimator, differentiability at this one point is enough. WriteSymmetry makes , and the supplied moment approximation gives . Therefore the linear contribution to the bias of an estimator is . The remaining contribution has absolute value at most , because only receive positive weight. This is the interior first-order bias cancellation for local constant regression, and gives squared bias of an estimator . Combining with the variance provesFor fixed , take . It satisfies both asymptotic smoothing bandwidth conditions, and the displayed remainder, multiplied by , tends to zero for this fixed . ThusLetting proves the optimized scaled pointwise error tends to zero. The order of these limits matters: no remainder uniform in has been assumed.
For the lower bound over the whole function class, the absence of a uniform bound on derivatives permits a particularly direct argument. It also avoids assuming a normal distribution for errors when the model only supplies their first two moments. Fix and . Choose a smooth bump function on the interval, with , whose support contains no design point except possibly . Such a bump exists because the design is finite; at an endpoint use the restriction of a smooth bump on the real line. Every , , belongs to the differentiability class.
If is not a design point, all observation means are zero for every . The Le Cam two-point lemma applied to has total variation distance zero and gives a lower bound tending to infinity with . In fact, the supremum of the mean squared error is infinite at every such .
If is a design point, only its response depends on . The resulting location family is the single observation ; all remaining observations are independent of and give no extra information. The single-observation location minimax bound isHere is a proof covering discrete as well as continuous errors. Give the prior distribution , independently of the noise. Put and . Consider an easier experiment in which an oracle also reveals whether , and reveals itself on the complementary event. On the event and , every possible truncated noise value places within . The flat prior distribution then makes the Bayesian posterior noise law exactly its truncated original law. The smallest conditional squared-error loss is its conditional variance , attained by the posterior mean.
The probability of that event is at least for , by restricting further to . Thus every rule's supremum risk function is at least the original Bayes risk, which is at least the easier experiment's Bayes risk, and therefore at least . Let and then . Finite second moment and zero mean give . The rule has constant mean squared error one, proving the equality.
Consequently, at every , the unrestricted differentiability class satisfies the stronger conclusionThus works for every . There is no conflict with the preceding fixed-function limit: the worst functions, including arbitrarily narrow bumps, can vary with . This is the pointwise versus uniform risk distinction. A smoothness ball with a common derivative bound would pose a different minimax risk problem.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 206 5 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
At a target , approximate the unknown mean locally by and solve the local linear regression weighted least-squares problemwhere is a nonnegative regression kernel and a smoothing bandwidth. A common factor in all weights makes no difference. Estimate by the fitted intercept , and optionally by . Repeat at each target rather than fitting a single global straight line.
For an explicit expression put and . The normal equations yieldThe denominator is positive provided there are at least two distinct positively weighted predictor values. The weights sum to one and their first centered moment is zero, so local linear regression exactly reproduces affine functions and reduces boundary bias compared with a local constant fit. Smaller uses more local detail and increases variance; larger smooths more and can increase bias. Choose the bandwidth by cross-validation or another justified criterion. A nearest-neighbour span provides an adaptive bandwidth, as in the local fits used later.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 210 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
For a kernel for density estimation with integral one and a smoothing bandwidth , the univariate kernel density estimator isIts expected value isThis is the convolution identity. It holds wherever the integral is defined, in particular everywhere for the bounded kernel used below. For a nonnegative kernel for density estimation, Tonelli theorem also gives the identity as an extended nonnegative integral. A signed kernel for density estimation instead requires absolute integrability for this interchange.
For the centred unit-width uniform kernel, substitute :Put . The Taylor theorem with Lagrange remainder givesThe odd function term integrates to zero, while . Hence the bias of a kernel density estimator obeysThis is a second-order pointwise bias bound for kernel density estimation. Existence and boundedness of the second derivative suffice for the stated remainder; continuity of that derivative is not an extra assumption.
For concentration, writeThe are independent and identically distributed random variables with a Bernoulli distribution, and . The required concentration bound follows from the Hoeffding lemma. We prove its Bernoulli case directly. Withwe have and , where is the exponentially tilted success probability. Therefore for every real . If or , the centred variable is identically zero and the same bound holds directly.
Independence and the exponential form of the Markov inequality now give, for ,Choose . Applying the same argument to the lower tail and adding the probabilities proves the Hoeffding inequality
To obtain the requested variance constant, use the additional bound that a probability is at most one. Set and . The tail integral formula for moments, justified by Tonelli theorem, yieldsThusThe clipping at one is essential for this integration argument to give that constant. It is an instance of a second moment bound from a clipped Gaussian tail. The exact Bernoulli distribution calculation also gives , an even stronger bound.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 210 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Put and , where is a nonnegative integer and is the smoothing bandwidth. The local polynomial estimator is the intercept of the weighted least squares fitWhen the local polynomial Gram matrix is invertible, the normal equations giveA singular local polynomial Gram matrix requires a selection convention and may leave the intercept unidentified; an arbitrary nonnegative regression kernel alone does not guarantee uniqueness. At , provided , the Nadaraya–Watson estimator isMultiplying every weight by changes neither fit.
For the uniform kernel, let and . Then . For and , the interval is inside , and the regular design hasThe same lower bound holds when the interval starts at zero, despite the absence of the design point zero. In particular the Nadaraya–Watson estimator is defined throughout the integration interval.
For every Lipschitz continuous mean function in , the bias of an estimator and variance satisfyHere the variance uses the independence of the errors in the fixed-design nonparametric regression model. The bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error and Tonelli theorem give a slightly stronger integrated mean squared error bound than required:ThusThe printed integration interval represents a nonnegative risk function for . For , the written integral has reversed limits and is nonpositive, making the displayed upper bound trivial; it should not be interpreted as an integrated mean squared error in that range. For , evaluation outside would additionally require a specified extension of the mean function. The subsequent optimization restricts to .
Minimizing the stated right side givesFor sufficiently large , and . For example take . Therefore the upper bound holds with
For the lower bound, the PDF has the mean squared error ; the TeX erroneously moves the square outside the expected value. The PDF's suggested smooth bump function is , with value zero at the endpoints, rather than the corrupted TeX formula. A triangular alternative suffices because only Lipschitz continuity is needed.
The Le Cam two-point lemma says that for two data laws with parameter separation , every estimator satisfiesIndeed, classify according to the nearer parameter value. Misclassification incurs squared-error loss at least , and the sum of the two error probabilities is at least one minus the total variation distance. Averaging the two risk functions proves the stated form.
Let , , and use the two-point lower bound with a triangular bumpBoth functions are in , and . Assume first that and . At most design points meet the bump's support. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between normal distributions and chain rule for relative entropy giveThe Pinsker's inequality therefore gives . The Le Cam two-point lemma yields the pointwise minimax rate for Lipschitz regressionThis universal constant is valid for .
If the printed lower bound is read as applying to all positive integers , it also holds with a smaller constant depending on the fixed . For , use the constant mean functions and . They have Kullback-Leibler divergence , so Pinsker's inequality and the Le Cam two-point lemma give minimax risk at least . Combining the two ranges gives the explicit all- choiceThe universal asymptotic constant and this parameter-dependent all- constant are distinct conventions; the latter supplies the assertion without inserting an unstated large- restriction.

