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For the arithmetic stock model with constant volatility, let $\sigma >0$, $\tau =T-t>0$, $a=K{e}^{-r\tau }$, andThus $\nu =\sigma \sqrt{(1-e^{-2r\tau })/(2r)}$ for $r\ne 0$, and $\nu =\sigma \sqrt{\tau }$ for $r=0$. With $\Phi ,\varphi$ the standard normal distribution function and standard normal density, the European call option price isIndeed, the discounted terminal price is conditionally Gaussian with mean $s$ and variance ${\nu }^2$. Integrating its positive part above the discounted strike price gives this expression. At maturity it reduces continuously to $(s-K{)}^{+}$.

Differentiation gives option delta $C_s=\Phi (d)$. Holding $C_s$ stock units and $(C-s{C}_s)/B$ bank-account units gives a self-financing portfolio replicating the financial payoff, under the usual stochastic-integrability conditions. Its nonnegative wealth is admissible, and the discounted-wealth supermartingale bound shows that this is the least replication capital among nonnegative-wealth strategies.

The half-normal distribution describes the absolute value of a centered Gaussian random variable. Its unit-scale version is $H=|Z|$ for a standard normal random variable $Z$. It folds the negative half of the standard normal distribution onto the positive half, retaining the size of a deviation while discarding its sign. If a centered Gaussian random variable models measurement error, its magnitude therefore has a half-normal distribution.Here $\varphi$ is the standard normal density and $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function. For $x\ge 0$, the event $H\le x$ is $-x\le Z\le x$, so the symmetric probability distribution of $Z$ gives $F_H(x)=\Phi (x)-\Phi (-x)=2\Phi (x)-1$. The upper-tail probability is therefore $\mathbb{P}(H>x)=2(1-\Phi (x))$. For example, $\mathbb{P}(H\le 1)\approx 0.6826894921$. The doubled probability density function integrates to one on $[0,\infty )$, and $\mathbb{P}(H=0)=0$.

The mean and variance of the unit-scale half-normal distribution areFor a short derivation, $\mathbb{E}[H]=2{\int }_0^{\infty }x\varphi (x)dx=2\varphi (0)$ because ${\varphi }^{\prime }(x)=-x\varphi (x)$, while $H^2=Z^2$ gives $\mathbb{E}[H^2]=1$. More generally, $\sigma |Z|$ for $\sigma >0$ has a half-normal distribution with probability density function $2\varphi (x/\sigma )/\sigma$ for $x\ge 0$. Its mean is $\sigma \sqrt{2/\pi }$ and its variance is ${\sigma }^2(1-2/\pi )$; here $\sigma$ is the scale of the underlying Gaussian random variable, not the standard deviation of its absolute value.

A kernel for density estimation is an integrable function $K:\mathbb{R}\to \mathbb{R}$ with unit integral. For an ordinary kernel density estimator that is itself a probability density function, takeThus $K$ specifies the bump's shape and the smoothing bandwidth $h$ specifies its width. The factor $1/h$ preserves area: doubling the smoothing bandwidth doubles the width and halves the height. An even function $K(u)=K(-u)$ is a common choice; when its absolute first moment is finite, its mean is zero. Symmetry is useful but is not required for normalization.

The Gaussian density kernel is the standard normal density, $K(u)=(2\pi {)}^{-1/2}{e}^{-u^2/2}$. Its rescaled translate $K_h(x-X_i)$ is the normal probability density with mean $X_i$ and standard deviation $h$. It is positive everywhere, whereas an Epanechnikov kernel has compact support. With the Gaussian density kernel, the smoothing bandwidth is a standard deviation, not a cutoff beyond which observations have no influence.

The broader convention also allows signed kernels of order ell, such as the flat-top kernel for density estimation, to cancel moments and reduce the bias of an estimator. Their unit integral still normalizes total area, but a resulting kernel density estimator can take negative values and need not be a probability density function. Nonnegativity is therefore an additional condition, not a consequence of unit integral.

For the standard normal density $\varphi$ and distribution function $\Phi$, the upper-tail Mills ratio is $(1-\Phi (x))/\varphi (x)$. Ratios involving a Gaussian density and Tail probability control truncated-normal moments and Gaussian-tail asymptotics.

Completing the square in the standard normal density gives $\mathbb{E}[e^{tZ}]=e^{t^2/2}$. Differentiating at zero yields $\mathbb{E}[Z]=0$, $\mathbb{E}[Z^2]=1$, and $\mathbb{E}[Z^4]=3$.

For the standard normal density, $f^{\prime \prime }(x)=(x^2-1)f(x)$ and $R(f^{\prime \prime })=3/(8\sqrt{\pi })$. The fifth power of the bandwidth ratio is $3\sqrt{2}{e}^{x^2/2}/[8(x^2-1{)}^2]$. Its global minima occur at $x=\pm \sqrt{5}$; $x=0$ is only the minimum within the interval between the two inflection points. The ratio diverges as $x$ approaches either inflection point.

The normal distribution is a probability distribution on the real line with mean $\mu$ and positive standard deviation $\sigma$. Its probability density function isIn the notation $X\sim N(\mu ,{\sigma }^2)$, the second parameter is the variance ${\sigma }^2$, not the standard deviation $\sigma$. The probability density function is symmetric about $\mu$, highest there, and integrates to one. These formulas and the parameter convention are given in MIT 18.05, Reading 5c, §5: normal distributions.

The normal distribution is a location-scale family: if $Z$ is a standard normal random variable, then $X=\mu +\sigma Z$. Changing $\mu$ moves the center; changing $\sigma$ stretches the horizontal distances from it. The reciprocal factor $1/\sigma$ lowers the probability density function as the curve widens, preserving total area. This is why one standard normal distribution suffices to calculate probabilities for the whole family. ^[ref].

The height $f_X(x)$ is a probability density function value, not $\mathbb{P}(X=x)$. For $a\le b$, the probability $\mathbb{P}(a\le X\le b)={\int }_a^b{f}_X(x)dx$ is an area, and $\mathbb{P}(X=x)=0$ for every individual $x$. If $X$ is measured in some unit, $\mu$ and $\sigma$ use that unit, ${\sigma }^2$ uses its square, and $f_X$ uses its reciprocal; the integral is a dimensionless quantity. A change of measurement unit therefore changes the height without changing the probability. The area interpretation is developed in MIT 18.05, Reading 5b: continuous random variables.

The usefulness of the normal distribution goes beyond its simple shape. Under the central limit theorem, sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with finite positive variance, after centering and scaling, approach the standard normal distribution. Thus approximations by a normal distribution can arise even when the individual random variables have quite different probability distributions. The hypotheses matter: a model of measurement error still needs evidence that this approximation is appropriate. ^[ref]. Exact closure under a linear combination of independent normal random variables provides another reason the family is convenient.

Historically, the curve appeared in a different problem from fitting measurements. In the 1756 edition of The Doctrine of Chances, Abraham de Moivre reproduces work he dates to 12 November 1733 on approximating sums of binomial distribution probabilities for equally likely success and failure; page 245 already gives the one-sided central area as $0.341344$. ^[ref]. In his 1809 Theoria motus, Carl Friedrich Gauss derived a normal distribution for measurement error from a condition on the arithmetic mean, then connected maximizing its likelihood to minimizing the sum of squared errors under that model, the principle behind ordinary least squares. These are distinct contributions: approximating binomial distribution probabilities and justifying an estimation rule. ^[ref].

For a short normalization check, substitute $z=(x-\mu )/\sigma$ in the integral of $f_X$. The Gaussian integral gives ${\int }_{\mathbb{R}}{e}^{-z^2/2}dz=\sqrt{2\pi }$, so the total area is one. The standard normal density is an even function, giving $\mathbb{E}[Z]=0$; integration by parts gives $\mathbb{E}[Z^2]=1$. Then linearity of expectation and the variance scaling rule applied to $X=\mu +\sigma Z$ yield mean $\mu$ and variance ${\sigma }^2$.

For $v,m\ge 0$, define $F(v,m)=\mathbb{E}[(e^{-v/2+\sqrt{v}Y}-m{)}^{+}]$, where $Y$ has the standard normal distribution. For $v,m>0$, completing the square in the standard normal density giveswhere $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function. The boundary values are $F(0,m)=(1-m{)}^{+}$ and $F(v,0)=1$. Multiplying by the current stock price produces a zero-interest Black-Scholes formula with total variance $v$ and relative strike $m$.

Under the risk-neutral measure, set $a=\sigma \sqrt{\tau }$ and $m=\log (S/K)+(r-{\sigma }^2/2)\tau$. Then $\log (S_T/K)=m+aZ$ with $Z$ a standard normal random variable, and $d_{-}=m/a$. The log-call option is the discounted Gaussian positive-part expectation:since ${\varphi }^{\prime }(z)=-z\varphi (z)$. ThereforeHere $\varphi$ and $\Phi =N$ are the standard normal density and standard normal distribution function. At expiry the continuous terminal limit is $(\log (S/K){)}^{+}$.

Under the risk-neutral measure, write $Z\sim N(0,1)$, $a=\sigma \sqrt{\tau }$, and $m=\log (S/K)+(r-{\sigma }^2/2)\tau$. Then $\log (S_T/K)=m+aZ$ and $d_{-}=m/a$. By risk-neutral pricing, this log-call option has value $e^{-r\tau }\mathbb{E}[(m+aZ{)}^{+}]$.

Let $\varphi$ and $\Phi$ denote the standard normal density and standard normal distribution function. The Gaussian positive-part expectation follows by integration:because ${\varphi }^{\prime }(z)=-z\varphi (z)$. ThereforeFor $\tau =0$ take the continuous terminal limit $(\log (S/K){)}^{+}$.

Source: original released examination PDF, bundle pages 66–69; paper pages 1–4. The bundle filename says 2020, but the printed paper is dated 2 June 2021.

Solutions to all three questions. Write $\tau =T-t$, $\Phi$ for the standard normal distribution function, and $\varphi$ for the standard normal density. Formulas with $\tau$ in a denominator are for $t<T$; terminal values are specified separately. Barrier formulas refer to a contract whose barrier has not previously been hit, unless stated otherwise.

Let $Y=(\log X-\mu )/\sigma$ and write $\varphi$ for the standard normal density, with $\sigma >0$. The change of variables converts the density integral intoComplete the square using $e^{k\sigma y}\varphi (y)=e^{k^2{\sigma }^2/2}\varphi (y-k\sigma )$. Integration gives the truncated lognormal momentHere $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function; take $\log 0=-\infty$ and $\log \infty =\infty$. The identity holds for every real $k$, including the full-interval limits, because the shifted Gaussian integral remains finite.

The limited excess of loss reinsurance payment is $L(X)=\min \{(X-M{)}_{+},A\}$. It is zero below $M$, equals $X-M$ for $M<X<M+A$, and equals $A$ above $M+A$. Since the lognormal distribution has a continuous density,Put $d_j(t)=(\log t-\mu -j{\sigma }^2)/\sigma$, $j=0,1$, and $\overline{\Phi }=1-\Phi$. Applying the moment identity with $k=1$ and $k=0$ gives the conditional lognormal layer recoveryThe denominator is $\mathbb{P}(X>M)$, and payments outside that event are zero. The three numerator terms are respectively the truncated first moment, the attachment subtracted from partial payments, and the capped payments on claims above the layer. This proves the conditional expectation including the limit on each reinsurer payment.

For claims inflation by $h=1.1$, set $X_h=hX$. Its log-mean is ${\mu }_h=\mu +\log h$ and its log-standard-deviation stays $\sigma$. The attachment and payment limit stay fixed. Therefore the requested new conditional mean isExplicitly, in the preceding fraction replace $d_j(t)$ by $d_j^{(h)}(t)=(\log t-\mu -\log 1.1-j{\sigma }^2)/\sigma$ and replace $e^{\mu +{\sigma }^2/2}$ by $1.1e^{\mu +{\sigma }^2/2}$. Equivalently, claims inflation of a fixed reinsurance layer givesbecause $L_{M,A}(hX)=h{L}_{M/h,A/h}(X)$ and the new conditioning event is $X>M/h$. Merely multiplying the original conditional mean by $1.1$ would omit both of these threshold changes.

At the standard normal distribution, symmetry and the odd Huber score give population root zero. For $0<b<\infty$, the derivative of the clipped score is $1_{\{|x|<b\}}$ except at its two corners, which have zero normal probability. Put $m_b=2\Phi (b)-1>0$ and write $\varphi$ for the standard normal density. The sandwich variance of an M-estimator has numeratorUsing ${\varphi }^{\prime }(z)=-z\varphi (z)$ and integration by parts,ThereforeAs checks, it tends to $1$ as $b\to \infty$, the sample mean limit, and to $\pi /2$ as $b\downarrow 0$, the sample median limiting variance. The estimator variance for a sample of size $n$ is approximately this quantity divided by $n$.

Subtract the boundary slope from the Brownian motion: $X_t=B_t-bt$. Then $T_{a,b}$ is the first-passage time of $X$ to the fixed level $a$. The zero-drift Brownian reflection principle givesHere $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function. To change the drift to $-b$, use the Girsanov theorem on each finite horizon, with density $L_t=\exp (-b{B}_t-b^{2}t/2)$. On $\{T_a\le t\}$, conditional expectation at the stopped time gives $\mathbb{E}[L_t\mid {\mathcal{F}}_{T_a}]=L_{T_a}$, because the density is a true martingale. Since $B_{T_a}=a$, the drifted Brownian first-passage density is consequentlyThere may be additional mass at infinite hitting time; the displayed density only describes finite passage. With $e^{-\theta \infty }=0$, apply the given zero-drift Brownian first-passage Laplace transform:The zero-discount limit is $1$ for $b\le 0$ and $e^{-2ab}$ for $b>0$, so the hitting probability is less than one precisely when the line moves away with positive slope.

For a direct verification of the linear-boundary Brownian first-passage distribution, defineBoth terms tend to zero as $t\downarrow 0$. Let $\varphi$ be the standard normal density. The identityfollows by expanding the two squares. Differentiating the two normal probabilities then givesSince this is the previously derived hitting density and both distribution functions start at zero,This proof applies to every real $b$, including the defective distribution when $b>0$.

For the barrier digital put, use the dividend-free Black-Scholes model with constant interest rate $\rho$ and spot volatility $\sigma >0$. Under the risk-neutral measure,Set $T=t_0$ andReaching the barrier $c$ is equivalent to $W_t^Q$ reaching $a+bt$. The contingent claim pays one only on the survival event $\{T_{a,b}>T\}$. Risk-neutral pricing therefore givesThis is a path-survival price, not the price of a terminal digital put option. Continuity of the stock paths and the absence of an atom in the finite-horizon maximum imply that alternative touching conventions change no price. As $c\to \infty$, the value tends to $e^{-\rho T}$; as $c\downarrow S_0$, it tends to zero. Both checks agree with the survival interpretation.

Write $R(v)={\int }_{\mathbb{R}}v(u{)}^{2}du$. The kernel density estimator with bandwidth $h>0$ isSufficient conditions are that $K$ be a nonnegative symmetric probability density function with $R(K)<\infty$ and finite nonzero second moment ${\mu }_2(K)=\int u^{2}K(u)du$, and that $h\to 0$, $nh\to \infty$. Symmetry and the second-moment assumption give $\int uK(u)du=0$. The expectation is a convolution:Taylor's theorem with integral remainder givesThe zeroth-order term integrates to $f(x)$, and the first-order term vanishes. The second derivative is bounded and continuous, so dominated convergence, with dominating function proportional to $u^{2}K(u)$, yieldsCombining this with the supplied leading variance gives the asymptotic mean squared errorWhen $f(x)>0$ and $f^{\prime \prime }(x)\ne 0$, its derivative is $-R(K)f(x)/(n{h}^2)+{\mu }_2(K{)}^2{f}^{\prime \prime }(x{)}^2{h}^3$. It changes sign exactly once, giving the pointwise optimal kernel bandwidthPositivity of $f(x)$ is needed for this positive interior optimum. The printed condition $f^{\prime \prime }(x)\ne 0$ alone does not ensure it. For instance, $f(x)=x^2\varphi (x)$ is a normalized bounded probability density function with bounded continuous square-integrable second derivative, but $f(0)=0$ and $f^{\prime \prime }(0)=2\varphi (0)>0$. At this point the displayed leading variance vanishes and the two-term AMSE has no positive interior minimizer; finer variance terms are needed to determine an appropriate bandwidth. The formal formula there gives zero, which does not satisfy the bandwidth assumptions.

For integrated error, the same expansion holds in $L^2$: translation continuity of $f^{\prime \prime }\in L^2$ applied to the integral remainder givesIndeed Minkowski's integral inequality bounds the norm of the difference, divided by $h^2$, by the integral of $u^{2}K(u){\int }_0^1(1-s)\Vert f^{\prime \prime }(\cdot -shu)-f^{\prime \prime }{\Vert }_{2}dsdu$; each translated difference tends to zero and is bounded by $2\Vert f^{\prime \prime }{\Vert }_2$. This proves the claimed integrated bias expansion without assuming a uniform pointwise remainder over the whole real line.

If $K_h(x)=h^{-1}K(x/h)$, direct integration of the variance givesThe last term is $O(n^{-1})$ because $f$ is bounded and integrable, hence square integrable, and convolution with a probability density function does not increase its $L^2$ norm. It is negligible compared with $1/(nh)$. Thus the asymptotic mean integrated squared error and its minimizer areHere $R(f^{\prime \prime })>0$: otherwise the continuous second derivative vanishes everywhere, making $f$ affine, impossible for a probability density function on the whole real line.

Now take the standard normal density $f=\varphi$. Differentiation gives ${\varphi }^{\prime \prime }(x)=(x^2-1)\varphi (x)$. Gaussian integration givesThe kernel constants cancel from the bandwidth ratio. At $x\ne \pm 1$,Put $t=x^2$. The logarithmic derivative of $e^{t/2}/(t-1{)}^2$ is $1/2-2/(t-1)$. On $0\le t<1$ the function increases, giving its minimum at $t=0$, with value one. On $t>1$ it decreases up to $t=5$ and then increases, giving its minimum $e^{5/2}/16<1$. Thus the global minimizers are $x=\pm \sqrt{5}$, and the normal-density local-to-global bandwidth ratio isThe ratio diverges at the two inflection points $\pm 1$, where the second-order pointwise bias approximation vanishes and needs a higher-order replacement.

Write $Q(x)=1-\Phi (x)={\int }_x^{\infty }\varphi (t)dt$, where $\varphi (t)=(2\pi {)}^{-1/2}{e}^{-t^2/2}$ is the standard normal density. For $x>0$, ${\varphi }^{\prime }(t)=-t\varphi (t)$ and integration by parts yieldThe boundary term at infinity vanishes. The remainder is nonnegative and is at most $Q(x)/x^2$, soDividing by the positive quantity $\varphi (x)/x$ gives lower and upper bounds $x^2/(x^2+1)$ and $1$. The squeeze theorem proves the Mills ratio asymptotic

Iterating the recurrence yieldsThus every finite collection of the $X_j$ is a linear transformation of independent standard normal random variables, and has a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The expected values are zero. Independence of the $Y_k$ givesFor $i<j$, the recurrence writes $X_j={\rho }^{j-i}{X}_i$ plus a sum of future innovations independent of $X_i$. Hence $\mathrm{Cov}(X_i,X_j)={\rho }^{j-i}$. The required vector law isThe covariance matrix is positive definite: the lower-triangular transformation from $(Y_1,\dots ,Y_n)$ has nonzero diagonal entries $1,\sqrt{1-{\rho }^2},\dots ,\sqrt{1-{\rho }^2}$. This also identifies a stationary autoregressive process of order one, with marginal density $f=\varphi$.

With the standard normal density as the kernel for density estimation, the two characteristic functions are $\psi (t)=e^{-t^2/2}$ and ${\psi }_K(ht)=e^{-h^2{t}^2/2}$. The Gaussian random variable $X_1-X_{j+1}$ has mean zero and variance $2(1-{\rho }^j)$, soThis expression is real. Substitution in the given integrated covariance expression, followed by the Gaussian integral ${\int }_{\mathbb{R}}{e}^{-a{t}^2}dt=\sqrt{\pi /a}$ for $a>0$, gives

To bound the total Gaussian autoregressive kernel variance correction, apply the mean value theorem to $u\mapsto u^{-1/2}$. For $j\ge 1$, the whole interval between $1+h^2-{\rho }^j$ and $1+h^2$ is bounded below by $1-\rho >0$. ThereforeSumming the geometric series gives the uniform boundIt follows from the supplied variance identity thatThe constant depends on the fixed $\rho$, but not on $h$ or $n$. In particular this applies to the requested shrinking-bandwidth regime; the covariance bound itself does not need $nh\to \infty$.

All observations have the same marginal density $f$, so dependence changes the variance but not the bias of a kernel density estimator: $\mathbb{E}{\hat{f}}_h=K_h\ast f$. Write $R(q)={\int }_{\mathbb{R}}{q}^2$ and ${\mu }_2(K)=\int u^{2}K(u)du$. For a smooth density with $f^{\prime \prime }\in L^2$, the integrated variance of a kernel density estimator in the independent case is $R(K)/(nh)+O(n^{-1})$. A second-order Taylor expansion of the convolution gives $K_h\ast f-f=(h^2{\mu }_2(K)/2)f^{\prime \prime }+o(h^2)$ in the L2 norm. Thus the bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error givesThe first two terms are the asymptotic mean integrated squared error. The additional dependence term is smaller than $n^{-4/5}$, so the leading optimal bandwidth and optimal rate are the same as for independent data:Here both $K$ and $f$ are the standard normal density. Since $f^{\prime \prime }(x)=(x^2-1)\varphi (x)$, direct Gaussian integrals giveConsequently the explicit leading bandwidth isAt this bandwidth the leading integrated variance is four times the leading integrated squared bias, which is also a check on the minimization constant.

Let the summands be independent and identically distributed random variables with mean $\mu$, variance ${\sigma }^2>0$, and standardized third cumulant ${\gamma }_1=\mathbb{E}[(Y_1-\mu {)}^3]/{\sigma }^3$. DefineAn Edgeworth expansion refines the central limit theorem using the higher cumulants of one summand. Some smoothness and moment assumptions are essential: finite variance alone does not supply a density expansion. A convenient sufficient set for the expansions here is a smooth density whose derivatives decay faster than every inverse power, together with $\mathbb{E}{e}^{\delta |Y_1|}<\infty$ for some $\delta >0$. These assumptions give all required moments, Fourier smoothing and the nonlattice characteristic-function condition. Less restrictive sufficient conditions are possible, but this set covers the logistic model below.

Write $\varphi$ and $\Phi$ for the standard normal density and standard normal distribution function. The first-order density Edgeworth expansion isThe remainder is uniform on every fixed compact interval under the stated assumptions. To see the origin of the correction, for $Z=(Y_1-\mu )/\sigma$ the cumulant expansion of its characteristic function givesExponentiating and using Fourier inversion yields the displayed correction, since the inverse transform of $(it{)}^3{e}^{-t^2/2}$ is $-{\varphi }^{(3)}(x)=(x^3-3x)\varphi (x)$. The Probabilists' Hermite polynomial convention is being used: $H_2(x)=x^2-1$ and $H_3(x)=x^3-3x$.

The corresponding distribution function expansion isuniformly on fixed compact intervals. The sign follows from $\frac{d}{dx}[H_2(x)\varphi (x)]=-H_3(x)\varphi (x)$. These are expansions of both the density and distribution function; a uniform density error alone would not justify integrating an error bound over the entire real line without the accompanying tail control.

For a fixed $\alpha \in (0,1)$, write $z=z_{\alpha }={\Phi }^{-1}(\alpha )$. At leading order the proposed quantile expansion gives $\Phi (p_0(z))=\Phi (z)$, and strict monotonicity gives $p_0(z)=z$. Substitute $y_{\alpha }=z+p_1(z)n^{-1/2}+O(n^{-1})$ into the distribution function expansion. A Taylor expansion at $z$ givesSince $\varphi (z)>0$, the coefficient of $n^{-1/2}$ must vanish. Thus the first Cornish-Fisher expansion coefficients are

For the logistic distribution, set $Z_i=Y_i-\theta$. Its density $q(z)=e^z/(1+e^z{)}^2$ satisfies $q(-z)=q(z)$ and has exponentially decreasing tails. Symmetry and integrability give $\mathbb{E}{Z}_i=0$, and the supplied integral givesTherefore $\mathbb{E}{Y}_i=\theta$, $\mathrm{Var}(Y_i)={\pi }^2/3$, and the central limit theorem givesWriting $z_{-}=z_{\alpha /2}$ and $z_{+}=z_{1-\alpha /2}$, the condition $z_{-}\le T_n\le z_{+}$ is equivalent toConsequently the confidence intervalhas limiting coverage $\Phi (z_{+})-\Phi (z_{-})=1-\alpha$. Whether the finite endpoints are included makes no probability difference because the sample mean has a density.