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For $r\ge 0$, integration gives the survival function and cumulative distribution functionSolving $F_R(r_p)=p$ gives the quantile function^[ref]

For the chosen positioning model $\sigma =2\mathrm{cm}$,The disk of radius one component standard deviation therefore contains about 39.35% of outcomes; the familiar one-dimensional normal interval percentage does not apply to a two-dimensional disk. The 95% and 99% radial thresholds areA circle defined by $R=r_p$ itself still has probability zero; its enclosed disk carries the stated probability.

The closed-form quantile function also gives inverse transform sampling: if $U$ has uniform distribution on $(0,1)$, then $\sigma \sqrt{-2\log U}$ has Rayleigh distribution. Using $1-U$ instead gives the same law. Endpoints are excluded so that the logarithm stays finite.

A return level answers the inverse question to a return period: which threshold has the specified rarity? Let $F(z)=F_{\mathrm{annual}}(z)=\mathbb{P}(M_j\le z)$ be the common cumulative distribution function of annual sample maxima in a model with stationarity. For a continuous, strictly increasing $F$ and $T>1$, the $T$-year return level isIt has the same units as $M_j$, whereas $T$ is a count of annual blocks. Independence between years is unnecessary for this one-year quantile definition; it is needed for the geometric waiting and multi-year formulas under return period. For a discrete probability distribution, use the generalized quantile function $F^{-1}(q)=\inf \{z:F(z)\ge q\}$. Then $\mathbb{P}(M_j>z_T)\le 1/T$, with equality not guaranteed at jumps; an exact requested exceedance probability may be unattainable.

For a concrete standard model, choose the maxima convention of the Gumbel distribution, with location $\mu$ and scale $b>0$:The second formula follows by taking logarithms twice and solving $F(z_T)=1-1/T$. The maxima cumulative distribution function and its inverse are given in NIST: extreme value type I distribution, maximum case. With the deliberately chosen toy values $\mu =10$ and $b=2$ in arbitrary units, $z_{10}=14.501$, $z_{100}=19.200$, and $z_{1000}=23.815$, rounded to three decimals. In particular, $19.200$ is approximately the annual quantile at cumulative probability $0.99$; it is not a prediction of the largest observation in the next 100 years. Under independence, the probability that all those annual sample maxima stay below the exact $z_{100}$ is $0.99^{100}\approx 0.366$.

The time block matters. If a toy year contains $m$ independent daily blocks, each with exceedance probability $q$ at one fixed threshold, its annual exceedance probability is $p=1-(1-q{)}^m$, giving annual return period $1/[1-(1-q{)}^m]$. The reciprocal $1/q$ counts daily blocks. Dependence among daily exceedances requires their joint law instead; a threshold crossed on several successive days still produces only one exceedance indicator for that year's sample maximum. The peaks-over-threshold method and declustering of extremes address a different choice of extreme-event sampling.

Let the numerical support of a probability distribution be $x_1<\cdots <x_n$. Its cumulative distribution function counts how many values have been passed:It is zero below $x_1$, equals $j/n$ on $x_j\le t<x_{j+1}$ for $1\le j<n$, and is one at and above $x_n$. Every jump is $1/n$, even when the horizontal gaps differ.

For inverse transform sampling, take an ideal continuous uniform distribution for $U$ on $[0,1)$. Partition that interval into $n$ intervals of width $1/n$ and outputEach interval has probability $1/n$, proving the desired discrete uniform distribution. Using the floor function, the index is $j=1+\lfloor nU\rfloor$; for consecutive integer values the output is $X=a+\lfloor nU\rfloor$. With the usual quantile function convention $Q(u)=\inf \{t:F_X(t)\ge u\}$, one instead writes $Q(u)=x_{\lceil nu\rceil }$ for $0<u\le 1$, using the ceiling function. The endpoint conventions differ only at a finite set of points with probability zero under the ideal continuous uniform distribution.

For $S=\{1,2,4,8\}$, the four intervals $[0,1/4)$, $[1/4,1/2)$, $[1/2,3/4)$, and $[3/4,1)$ select $1,2,4,8$, respectively. Thus $U=3/10$ selects $2$, while $U=9/10$ selects $8$. The upper half of the interval selects values at least four, recovering probability $1/2$. Equal widths refer to the sampling probability coordinate, not to distances between output values. This is an exact mathematical construction assuming an ideal continuous uniform distribution; a finite computer random-number source needs its own justification of equal output chances.

A semi-log plot uses a logarithmic scale on one axis and a linear scale on the other. Which axis is logarithmic matters. Plotting $x$ against $\log y$ makes positive exponential functions appear as straight lines; plotting $\log x$ against $y$ instead makes an affine function of a logarithm appear straight. The plotting operations change positions while retaining the original tick values.^[ref]

Take the original dimensionless mathematical model $y(t)=3e^{0.4t}$ for $0\le t\le 8$. It has exponential growth, with $y(0)=3$, $y(4)\approx 14.8591$, and $y(8)\approx 73.5976$. Taking a base-ten logarithm givesThe slope in these transformed positions is $0.4/\ln 10\approx 0.173718$, although the original relative growth rate $y^{\prime }/y$ is $0.4$. Equal steps of two in $t$ multiply $y$ by $e^{0.8}\approx 2.22554$. The corresponding ordinary gains increase, so the left plot bends while the right plot is straight.

One practical use is checking a proposed exponential distribution for failure times. For rate $\lambda >0$ and $t\ge 0$, its cumulative distribution function is $F(t)=1-e^{-\lambda t}$, so the reciprocal survival function $y=1/[1-F(t)]$ satisfies ${\log }_{10}y=\lambda t/\ln 10$. Estimated probabilities can therefore be placed on a logarithmic vertical axis and compared with a straight line. Agreement supports compatibility with the chosen statistical model; a roughly straight finite sample does not establish a unique physical mechanism.^[ref]

Two players pay their invested efforts regardless of outcome. A leader invests first, and a follower observes that effort before deciding. With ties favoring the follower and unit costs, a follower of value $u$ matches leader effort $b$ when $u>b$, and otherwise declines. For a continuous follower cumulative distribution function $F$, the leader wins with probability $F(b)$ and has payoff $vF(b)-b$.

Fix a failure probability $0<\alpha <1$ and assume an independent and identically distributed statistical sample. A finite-sample confidence band for its population cumulative distribution function isHere $\log$ is the natural logarithm. The DKW inequality impliesThis is simultaneous coverage over the whole real line, valid at each fixed sample size.^[ref]

To obtain the band, solve $2e^{-2n{\epsilon }^2}=\alpha$ for the positive $\epsilon$. Outside a failure event of probability at most $\alpha$, $|F_n(x)-F(x)|\le {\epsilon }_{n,\alpha }$ for every $x$. Since a cumulative distribution function already lies in $[0,1]$, clipping the endpoints to this interval preserves the coverage event. The guarantee is at least $1-\alpha$, and need not equal it.

Choose $\alpha =0.1$, giving at least $90\%$ simultaneous coverage under the stated model. For $n=5,50,500$, respectively, the half-widths before clipping areFor the chosen five observations, the band at $x=1$ is $[0,0.94733]$, while at $x=4$ it is approximately $[0.25267,1]$. At $x=3$ the unclipped band would be $[0.05267,1.14733]$, so clipping gives $[0.05267,1]$. The broad uncertainty is informative: five observations give a precise description of themselves, but a coarse bound for an unknown population cumulative distribution function.

A collection of $90\%$ pointwise confidence intervals only promises coverage separately at each preselected threshold; it does not promise $90\%$ coverage of an entire cumulative distribution function. Here the one simultaneous event permits inspecting any threshold after seeing the data. The probability refers to repeated sampling of the entire statistical sample, with $F$ fixed. It does not assign $90\%$ probability to a fixed $F$ after observing this particular band, and it is not a prediction interval for a future observation. The displayed $n=5,50,500$ comparison gives a guarantee for each fixed $n$ separately, not simultaneous validity over all sample sizes or an optional stopping rule. The chosen observations are an illustration; the coverage claim follows from the DKW inequality, not from their appearance or a simulation. Dependence or observations with different sampling laws require another argument.

At fixed $\alpha$, multiplying $n$ by $100$ divides the half-width by $10$. Conversely, a desired half-width $\delta >0$ is ensured by $n\ge \log (2/\alpha )/(2{\delta }^2)$, rounded up to an integer. For $\alpha =0.1$ and $\delta =0.1$, this sufficient sample size is $150$. This makes the confidence band useful for planning how many observations are needed before estimating threshold probabilities to a chosen simultaneous accuracy.

A probability distribution is singular continuous if it has no point masses and assigns probability one to a set of zero Lebesgue measure. Its cumulative distribution function is continuous, but the distribution has no probability density function with respect to Lebesgue measure. This distinguishes continuity of the cumulative distribution function from an absolutely continuous probability distribution, whose probabilities are integrals of a probability density function.

Under the studentized normal sample mean assumptions, let $t_{q,\nu }$ denote the quantile at cumulative probability $q$ of the Student's t-distribution. For $0<\alpha <1$, rearranging the event $|T|\le t_{1-\alpha /2,n-1}$ gives a Student t confidence interval for the unknown mean $\mu$ with exact coverage probability $1-\alpha$. ^[ref]

Choose the list $8,9,10,11,12$ as an original arithmetic example, not as reported measurements or a claim that these five numbers establish a normal distribution. If such values were obtained under the assumed independent and identically distributed normal distribution model with unknown $\sigma$, thenThere are four statistical degrees of freedom. For a 95% confidence interval, $t_{0.975,4}=2.776445105\dots$, soUsing the standard normal quantile $z_{0.975}=1.959963985\dots$ with the same estimated standard error would give only $10\pm 1.385903824\dots$. That underestimates the correct margin by about 29.4%. Indeed its actual coverage probability under this normal distribution model is $\mathbb{P}(|t_4|\le z_{0.975})\simeq 0.8784$, rather than 0.95.

The observations, the sample mean and the confidence interval all have different meanings. The bar estimates the population mean; it is not an interval intended to contain 95% of individual observations. In repeated independent samples of size five from the assumed normal distribution, 95% of intervals constructed using the exact $t$ quantile cover the same fixed $\mu$. This is not a 95% posterior probability that the fixed statistical parameter lies in this particular realized interval. Such a probability requires a separate Bayesian inference model.

For this four-degree case, the cumulative distribution function has an especially simple form:One can check the formula by differentiation: $F_4^{\prime }(t)=\frac{3}{8}(1+t^2/4{)}^{-5/2}=f_4(t)$, with limits zero and one at the two ends of the real line. Solving the increasing equation $F_4(t)=0.975$ by the bisection method gives the quantile used above.

The square of a uniform distribution variable on $(0,1)$ has cumulative distribution function $\sqrt{x}$ and an integrable inverse-square-root probability density function. Reflection replaces $x$ by $1-x$ in that density.

For a random variable $X$ with probability density function $e^{-|x|}/2$, the event $X^2\le y$ is $-\sqrt{y}\le X\le \sqrt{y}$ for $y\ge 0$. Integrating the symmetric density gives the displayed cumulative distribution function; it is zero for negative $y$. The density on $y>0$ is $e^{-\sqrt{y}}/(2\sqrt{y})$. Its integrable singularity at zero does not create an atom, because the cumulative distribution function is continuous there.

The standard normal distribution function is the cumulative distribution function of a standard normal random variable $Z$:Here $\varphi$ is the standard normal density and $\mathrm{erf}$ is the error function. The symmetric probability distribution gives $\Phi (-x)=1-\Phi (x)$ and $\Phi (0)=1/2$, while differentiation gives ${\Phi }^{\prime }(x)=\varphi (x)$. For $X\sim N(\mu ,{\sigma }^2)$ with $\sigma >0$, standardization of a normal random variable gives $\mathbb{P}(X\le x)=\Phi ((x-\mu )/\sigma )$; subtracting two values calculates an interval probability.

For a nonnegative survival time $T$, the survival function iswhere $F$ is the cumulative distribution function. Thus $S(t)$ is the probability that the chosen occurrence is still in the future at time $t$. We consistently use the strict inequality $T>t$: a probability mass at $t$ has already left the survival function at $t$ itself. With this convention $S$ is a right-continuous function and a nonincreasing function taking values in $[0,1]$. If $\mathbb{P}(T=0)=0$, then $S(0)=1$; if $T$ is finite with probability one, then $S(t)\to 0$ as $t\to \infty$.

For $S(a)>0$ and $b>a$, conditional probability givesFor example, $S(2)=0.8$ and $S(5)=0.6$ mean that $0.6/0.8=0.75$ of those still event-free at year two remain event-free through year five. Their intervening event probability is $0.25$, whereas the original population's probability of an occurrence in $(2,5]$ is $0.8-0.6=0.2$. Conditioning changes the denominator.

The area under the survival function up to a horizon gives the restricted mean survival time. A positive terminal plateau in a plotted Kaplan–Meier estimator does not establish that the occurrence will never happen: terminal censoring and survival-mean identifiability explains why the unobserved tail remains undetermined.

The displayed mixture distribution combines a Standard Cauchy distribution and a symmetric law whose magnitude has cumulative distribution function $r^2/(1+r^2)$ for $r\ge 0$. Use independent uniforms $U,V,H$: if $U\le p$, return $\tan (\pi (V-1/2))$; otherwise return a fair independent sign times $\sqrt{V/(1-V)}$. The magnitude density is $2r/(1+r^2{)}^2$ and splitting its mass equally between signs gives $|x|/(1+x^2{)}^2$. An alternative rejection sampling proposal is standard Cauchy, with envelope constant $M=p+\pi (1-p)/2$, because $|x|/(1+x^2)\le 1/2$.

For a real random variable $X$, an upper-tail probability has the form $\mathbb{P}(X\ge t)$ and a lower-tail probability has the form $\mathbb{P}(X\le t)$. Each is the probability of an event lying beyond a chosen threshold in one direction. A tail probability need not be small: the threshold determines how much of the probability distribution it includes. A concentration inequality bounds such probabilities, often for deviations from an expected value.

Endpoint conventions matter. Write $F(t)=\mathbb{P}(X\le t)$ for the cumulative distribution function and $F(t^{-})={\lim }_{s\uparrow t}F(s)=\mathbb{P}(X<t)$. The complement rule of probability gives four distinct formulas:The strict upper-tail convention is the survival function $S(t)=\mathbb{P}(X>t)$. Its value differs from the inclusive upper tail probability by exactly the probability mass at the threshold:A singleton with positive probability mass is an atom of a measure. Thus $1-F(t)$ excludes an atom of a measure at $t$, whereas $1-F(t^{-})$ includes it. These endpoint identities follow directly from the cumulative distribution function properties in Kyle Siegrist, Distribution and Quantile Functions: endpoint probabilities and right tails.

As the threshold increases, both upper tail probabilities are nonincreasing functions. The strict survival function is a right-continuous function; the inclusive upper tail probability takes the upper endpoint value at a downward jump, equal to the left limit of the survival function. Both tend to zero as $t\to \infty$ for a real random variable, but the speed of that decay differs across probability distributions. The cumulative distribution function properties and their proof from continuity of probability measures are given in MIT 6.436J, Lecture 4: random variables and cumulative distribution function properties.

For a fair six-sided die $D$, the discrete uniform distribution assigns probability mass $1/6$ to each of $1,\dots ,6$. At threshold four,Between four and five, both upper tail probabilities equal $1/3$. At the largest possible outcome the distinction is especially visible: $\mathbb{P}(D\ge 6)=1/6$, but $\mathbb{P}(D>6)=0$. The diagram shows exact probabilities for this mathematical model; its dots specify which endpoints belong to each step function.

If a probability distribution has a probability density function $f$, then every singleton has zero probability mass andFor an exponential distribution of rate two, $f(x)=2e^{-2x}$ for $x\ge 0$ and zero otherwise, so $S(t)=e^{-2t}$ for $t\ge 0$ and $S(t)=1$ for $t<0$. Hence $\mathbb{P}(X\ge 1)=e^{-2}\approx 0.135335$. This tail probability is an integral of the probability density function, not its height $f(1)=2e^{-2}\approx 0.270671$. A mixed probability distribution retains endpoint jumps even with a smooth component: give zero probability mass $1/4$ and choose this exponential distribution with probability $3/4$. Then $\mathbb{P}(X\ge 0)=1$, $\mathbb{P}(X>0)=3/4$, and $S(t)=(3/4)e^{-2t}$ for $t\ge 0$.

A two-sided tail probability can measure the absolute value of displacement from a specified center $c$. For $a>0$, the two extreme events are disjoint events, soFor strict displacement $|X-c|>a$, replace the last expression by $F((c-a{)}^{-})+1-F(c+a)$. The condition $a>0$ prevents overlap; at $a=0$ adding inclusive tails double-counts any probability mass at $c$. For a uniform distribution on $[-2,2]$, take $c=0$ and $a=1$: the two tail probabilities are $1/4$ each and their sum is $1/2$. Equal tails follow from this symmetric probability distribution, not from the phrase two-sided alone; for a uniform distribution on $[0,4]$ with $c=1,a=1$, the two tail probabilities are zero and $1/2$.

The tail-sum formula for expectation turns a whole curve of tail probabilities into an expected value. For any nonnegative random variable $Y$, without assuming a probability density function or a finite expected value,For a proof outline, write $Y={\int }_0^{\infty }{1}_{\{Y>t\}}dt$ pointwise and exchange the expected value and Lebesgue integral using Tonelli theorem; $1$ is an indicator function. The inclusive version has the same Lebesgue integral: positive probability masses occur at only a countable set of thresholds, which has Lebesgue measure zero. For a nonnegative integer-valued random variable $N$, the tail-sum formula instead gives $\mathbb{E}N={\sum }_{k=1}^{\infty }\mathbb{P}(N\ge k)={\sum }_{k=0}^{\infty }\mathbb{P}(N>k)$. The integer hypothesis is essential for these sums. The integral identity, its indicator function proof, and the integer version appear in Kyle Siegrist, Additional Properties of Expected Value: integration and summation of right tails.

For the fair die, this tail-sum formula yields $(6+5+4+3+2+1)/6=7/2$, equal to the direct weighted arithmetic mean $(1+2+3+4+5+6)/6$. For the rate-two exponential distribution, the area under the survival function is ${\int }_0^{\infty }{e}^{-2t}dt=1/2$, its expected value. The first panel below shades an integral of the probability density function for a single threshold; the second shades an integral of the survival function across all nonnegative thresholds. These are analytical illustrations, with the displayed curves truncated at three; their exact total areas use an infinite integration range.

Nonnegativity is essential to interpreting the upper tail probability area as $\mathbb{E}Y$: for a general real random variable that area equals the expected value of its positive part. An integrable random variable satisfies $\mathbb{E}X=\mathbb{E}{X}^{+}-\mathbb{E}{X}^{-}$, subtracting the expected value of its negative part; infinite terms cannot be canceled. Even when $Y$ is finite almost surely, its expected value can be infinite. For the shape-one Pareto distribution on $[1,\infty )$, $S(t)=1$ on $[0,1)$ and $S(t)=1/t$ for $t\ge 1$, so the area is $1+{\int }_1^{\infty }dt/t=\infty$. The finite versus infinite expected value distinction is illustrated in Kyle Siegrist, Definitions and Basic Properties: exponential and Pareto expected values.

Why are tail probabilities useful? They answer threshold questions directly, and a concentration inequality can bound them without knowing the full probability distribution. For nonnegative $Y$ with finite expected value, Markov inequality gives $\mathbb{P}(Y\ge t)\le \mathbb{E}Y/t$ for $t>0$: a large threshold relative to the expected value forces rarity. The quantile function reverses the question by choosing a threshold for a prescribed cumulative level. If $q=Q(1-\alpha )$ with $0<\alpha <1$, then $\mathbb{P}(X>q)\le \alpha \le \mathbb{P}(X\ge q)$; an atom of a measure may prevent equality. For the die, $Q(0.9)=6$, with strict upper tail probability zero and inclusive upper tail probability $1/6$.

A tail probability describes rarity under a specified probability distribution; it is not automatically a conditional probability after extra information. For $u\ge t$ with $\mathbb{P}(X\ge t)>0$,because the threshold events are nested. Thus the die has $\mathbb{P}(D\ge 5)=1/3$ but $\mathbb{P}(D\ge 5\mid D\ge 4)=2/3$. Conditioning changes the sample space and renormalizes its probability measure; the same extreme outcomes can become common in that restricted population.

If $s>0$ and $\Theta$ has the continuous uniform distribution on $(-\pi /2,\pi /2)$, then $Y=s\tan \Theta$ has the Cauchy distribution with location zero and scale $s$. The tangent function is strictly increasing on this interval, so its cumulative distribution function isDifferentiating gives the probability density function $s/[\pi (s^2+y^2)]$. The probability of either endpoint is zero, so including endpoints in the uniform interval does not alter this probability distribution. The slow quadratic decay makes the expected value undefined: its positive and negative parts both have infinite integrals. Its second moment is also infinite, so it has no finite standard deviation.

For $0\le q\le 1$ and $r>0$, this mixed probability distribution has probability mass $1-q$ at zero and ordinary probability density function $q/r$ on $(0,r)$. That ordinary density integrates to $q$, not to one; conditioned on $S>0$, the law is the uniform distribution on $(0,r)$. Its cumulative distribution function is zero for $s<0$, $1-q+qs/r$ for $0\le s<r$, and one for $s\ge r$.

For each positive integer $k$, integration gives $\mathbb{E}[S^k]=q{r}^k/(k+1)$. Thus the expected value is $qr/2$ and the variance is $q{r}^2/3-q^2{r}^2/4$. The nonzero atom contributes to normalization even though it contributes zero to positive moments. At $q=0$, conditioning on positive delay is undefined because the conditioning event has probability zero.

For an iid sample of size $n\ge 2$ from a continuous cumulative distribution function, the probability integral transform makes the transformed sample uniform. Integrating the joint density of its minimum and maximum gives range density $n(n-1)r^{n-2}(1-r)$ on $0<r<1$. Its distribution function is $n{r}^{n-1}-(n-1)r^n$. The result describes population content between the extreme order statistics, independently of the underlying continuous distribution.

For an independent statistical sample from a gamma distribution with known shape $\lambda >0$ and unknown rate $\theta >0$, test $\theta ={\theta }_0$ against $\theta >{\theta }_0$. The alternative-to-null likelihood ratio for any larger rate ${\theta }_1$ is $({\theta }_1/{\theta }_0{)}^{n\lambda }\exp \{-({\theta }_1-{\theta }_0)S\}$, where $S={\sum }_i{X}_i$. This decreases in $S$, so the Neyman-Pearson lemma gives one common lower-tail ordering for all alternatives.

Let $G_a$ be the unit-rate gamma distribution cumulative distribution function with shape $a$. The uniformly most powerful test of exact test size $\alpha \in (0,1)$ rejects when $S<c_{\alpha }$, where $c_{\alpha }=G_{n\lambda }^{-1}(\alpha )/{\theta }_0$. Its power function is displayed above. If $n\lambda =1$, the sum has an exponential distribution, so $c_{\alpha }=-\log (1-\alpha )/{\theta }_0$ and $\pi (\theta )=1-(1-\alpha {)}^{\theta /{\theta }_0}$. Monotonicity of $G_a(\theta c_{\alpha })$ also makes this test valid and uniformly most powerful for the larger null hypothesis $\theta \le {\theta }_0$.

For independent and identically distributed random variables $U_1,\dots ,U_n$ with the continuous uniform distribution on $(0,1)$, the $r$th order statistic has Beta distributionIts probability density function, mean, and variance areThe probability density function is zero outside $[0,1]$; values assigned to its endpoints do not change any probability. Peter Kempthorne's MIT lecture notes derive the uniform order statistic law and these moments. ^[ref].

For $n=5$, the minimum, sample median, and sample maximum correspond to $r=1,3,5$. Their probability density functions are $5(1-t{)}^4$, $30t^2(1-t{)}^2$, and $5t^4$, respectively. The sample median therefore has Beta distribution $\mathrm{Beta}(3,3)$, mean $1/2$, and variance $1/28\approx 0.0357143$. Its cumulative distribution function isFor instance, $\mathbb{P}(U_{(3)}\le 1/4)=53/512\approx 0.103516$. The mean of the minimum is $1/6$, and the mean of the sample maximum is $5/6$. The fixed observed sample median $0.4$ in the order statistic example is one possible outcome; $1/2$ is the average over repeated statistical samples from this uniform distribution.

Each curve has area one. The extreme order statistics favor the ends, while the sample median favors the center. The endpoint density height $5$ is legitimate: the probability density function gives area per unit length, rather than point probability. In particular, a continuous uniform distribution has zero probability of producing an endpoint.

For a short proof, the binomial distribution counting identity under order statistic gives $\mathbb{P}(U_{(r)}\le t)={\sum }_{k=r}^n\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k}\right)t^k(1-t{)}^{n-k}$. Taking its derivative cancels consecutive terms, leaving the displayed probability density function. Recognize its normalizing factorial coefficient as that of the Beta distribution, then substitute $\alpha =r$, $\beta =n+1-r$ into the Beta distribution mean and variance formulas. Although the original observations are independent, their order statistics generally are dependent; see the positive covariance of two uniform order statistics.

For a positive continuous density $f_{\theta }$ with strictly increasing cumulative distribution function $F_{\theta }$, observations from its upper-truncated law have likelihood ${\prod }_i{f}_{\theta }(t_i)/F_{\theta }(M{)}^n$ on $M>t_{(n)}$. Holding $\theta$ fixed, decreasing $M$ toward $t_{(n)}$ increases the likelihood; taking a supremum over $\theta$ preserves nonincreasing dependence on $M$. Provided the nuisance fit is finite, the usual closed-support endpoint estimate is $t_{(n)}$. With the literal open support $t<M$, only a limiting supremum need exist. A sample maximum is not a validated bound for future observations, and support depending on a parameter prevents automatic application of Wilks theorem.