Rotational invariance of Brownian motion 2026-10-14
For standard Brownian motion started at zero in , every fixed orthogonal transformation preserves the process law. Its transformed increments remain independent centred Gaussian random vectors with covariance , and its paths remain continuous. Consequently its exit law from any centred sphere is normalized surface measure. Translations give the same assertion for spheres centred at its starting point.
Ruby pressure uncertainty worked example 2026-10-18
Construct a synthetic local calibration to show the calculation independently of the historical data. Choose reference pairs , with shifts in and pressures in . The reference zero is already subtracted. Treat the shifts as exact for this fit and give the three reference pressures equal weights. Minimizing the ordinary least squares objectiveand setting its derivative to zero givesThe regression residuals are . Their weighted moment vanishes, as required by the least-squares normal equations. An unknown reference offset requires fitting an intercept instead; forcing it to zero can bias the slope. If shift errors matter, this elementary fit is insufficient.
Synthetic ruby pressure scale: fitting the response and propagating measurement uncertainty
. Original stipulated reference points and calculations, not measured historical calibration. The left panel shows the fitted slope and a chosen reading. The right panel separates independent contributions to standard uncertainty; bar lengths are standard contributions, which combine by sums of squares. The assigned slope standard uncertainty includes a hypothetical reference-scale contribution and is not estimated from the three residuals. Details.Use the local measurement modelHere denotes pressure relative to the reference, is calibrated sensitivity, and is a local wavelength sensitivity to temperature at fixed pressure. Choose , and a reading at . The inferred pressure is . These coefficients and readings are stipulated, not measured ruby constants. With the same pressure, a increase in temperature would add to the shift in this model; neglecting it would overestimate pressure by .
Assign independent standard uncertainties , and for the temperature difference. Here is an independently assigned calibration uncertainty, not an estimate from the regression residuals above; treat as exact in this example. First-order propagation of uncertainty follows by differentiating the measurement model:The four standard contributions are , giving . This is a standard uncertainty, not automatically a interval. Correlated reference and loaded wavelength readings require the corresponding covariance term; common wavelength-axis drift may cancel in their difference. Uncertain , nonzero , model inadequacy and unresolved deviatoric stress require a broader budget. Taking more optical readings reduces some random errors while leaving a common reference-scale error.
Sample autocovariance function 2026-10-05
For a known zero mean, for . Weakly stationary process assumptions give expectation . Dividing by instead gives an unbiased estimate at each individual lag, although the resulting collection need not form a positive semidefinite covariance sequence.
Sample mean under simple random sampling 2026-10-14
Fix real population values . Define the finite population mean and two normalizations of the finite population variance byThe values are fixed; only the selected subset is random. For its sample mean , the exact design expectation and variance areThe sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the finite population mean. At , every unit is observed and exactly, so the variance is zero. The case is deterministic and is handled directly, since is undefined then.[ref]
Chapter 2: Simple Random Sampling. Sampling Theory, Chapter 2, PDF pp. 2, 6–9: variance normalizations, unbiasedness, covariance derivation and finite population correction
The finite population correction depends on the baseline. With the normalization it is multiplying . With the normalization it is multiplying , the exact variance for independent uniform sampling with replacement. The standard error uses the square root of the relevant variance factor. Mixing the two normalizations gives a wrong answer even at , when replacement cannot matter. For the six-value example, , , and , reproducing without replacement and with replacement.
A short proof exposes the statistical dependence. Let be the value at position in uniform sequential sampling without replacement, so each has expected value and variance . Write . Every ordered pair of distinct labels is equally likely, and , hence for ,Linearity of expectation proves unbiasedness without requiring independence. The variance of a sum includes all ordered covariance terms, givingFor the original population, each pair of distinct draw positions has covariance . Drawing a high value leaves a lower mean among the remaining values, balancing subsequent draws. Equal marginal probability distributions therefore coexist with negative covariance.
When , the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of . To check this independently, use : its expected value is . Thus unbiasedly estimates the variance of the sample mean; its square root estimates the standard error, but need not be unbiased.[ref]
Chapter 2: Simple Random Sampling. Sampling Theory, Chapter 2, PDF pp. 10–12: sample-variance and standard-error estimation
Exact mean variance and expected distinct-unit coverage as sample size grows in the six-value population
. Details. The diagram compares variance with the expected fraction of distinct population labels observed. Without replacement this fraction is exactly ; with independent uniform sampling with replacement, a label is missed with probability , so linearity of expectation gives expected fraction . At six draws, replacement covers only about of labels on average and retains sample mean variance ; sampling all six distinct labels covers the population completely and removes selection uncertainty. This population coverage is distinct from confidence interval coverage probability.
The correction matters when the sampling fraction is appreciable. It calibrates uncertainty about this fixed population under the specified selection mechanism. It does not correct unequal selection weights, missing observations or measurement errors; observing every label also does not eliminate uncertainty about a larger unobserved population. Moreover, an exact variance alone does not guarantee the coverage probability of a proposed confidence interval: a small discrete sampling distribution can make a normal approximation inaccurate.
Sampling without replacement Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-10-14
Sampling without replacement selects distinct labelled units: after a unit is selected it is unavailable for the remaining draws. Distinct labels can carry equal numerical values, so repeated values do not necessarily imply a repeated unit. The rule alone does not specify selection probabilities; a procedure favoring particular units is still sampling without replacement but need not be simple random sampling.
In uniform sequential sampling without replacement, the next label is chosen uniformly among those remaining. For a population of labels, any ordered sequence of distinct labels has probability . Each size- subset has possible orders, so its probability is . This gives the fixed-size simple random sampling design. Equivalently, take the first labels of a uniformly random permutation. Restricting a uniformly random permutation to a specified label set preserves uniformity; biased modulo mappings should not replace uniform selection.
The draw positions have identical marginal probability distributions, but exhibit statistical dependence. If the first label is , the conditional probability that the second label is is zero, whereas its marginal probability is . Thus these draws are not independent and identically distributed when and . For a marked subset of labels, counting size- subsets with binomial coefficients gives the hypergeometric distribution. The resulting negative covariance explains the finite population correction for both counts and sample means.
Sandwich variance of an M-estimator 2026-10-14
For an estimating equation with population root , let be nonsingular and . Differentiating the contaminated population equation gives influence function . A consistent sample root with differentiable local expansion satisfies , so the central limit theorem gives the displayed covariance. In the scalar case this is .
Scalar Gaussian Kalman recursion 2026-10-14
For the state-space model , , assume independent Gaussian process noise and measurement noise of variances , independent of the prior state and previous observations. A normal distribution for the filtered state, with mean and variance , predicts mean and variance . Here denotes predicted state variance, rather than the observation-noise covariance notation used in the vector equations above. Gaussian conditional expectation then gives posterior mean and posterior variance , where the Kalman gain is .
Mere weak white noise assumptions do not imply normal posterior distributions: independent process noise with a Rademacher distribution makes the next state a mixture of two shifted normal distributions. The Kalman filter can still describe a best affine state estimate under appropriate second-order assumptions, but that is distinct from an exact Gaussian conditional law.
Schrödinger equation Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-20
The Schrödinger equation governs the evolution of a quantum state between instances of measurement in quantum mechanics. For a particle of mass moving in a prescribed real potential energy , its position wavefunction satisfiesHere is the Planck constant, is the Laplace operator, and the Hamiltonian operator combines kinetic energy with potential energy. Specify an initial wavefunction, an operator domain and any boundary conditions: the differential expression alone does not completely specify a physical model. The Born rule then turns the evolving probability amplitude into position probabilities through and integration over a region.
This scalar Schrödinger operator describes nonrelativistic quantum mechanics, with relevant momenta much smaller than , where is the speed of light. It omits the constant rest energy , assumes fixed particle number, and suppresses active spin dynamics and coupling to a magnetic vector potential. A free electron with a fixed, uncoupled spin state can still use this scalar model; the Pauli equation supplies the additional spin components and magnetic coupling when needed. A prescribed real describes a closed evolution model or an approximation in which the source of that potential energy is treated as external. Dissipation, particle creation and a general measurement in quantum mechanics need further modelling.
For a time-independent self-adjoint Hamiltonian operator, the spectral theorem defines unitary time evolution byInitial states in the operator domain satisfy the differential equation in the Hilbert space sense; the unitary operator also evolves all other states in that Hilbert space. Time-dependent Hamiltonian operators need suitable regularity and domain hypotheses; their evolution is not generally the exponential of .
The local reason for conservation is especially tangible. Multiply the Schrödinger equation by the complex conjugate , subtract its conjugate multiplied by , and use the fact that the real potential energy terms cancel. For smooth wavefunctions this gives the probability continuity equationThe divergence theorem identifies the change in probability inside a region with minus the outward probability current. Decay at infinity, or appropriate probability-conserving boundary conditions, preserves wavefunction normalization. Conservation of total probability does not require a stationary probability density.
Its usefulness comes from being a linear partial differential equation: quantum superpositions of solutions are solutions, while different quantum phases can produce interference. For a fixed Hamiltonian operator, the time-independent Schrödinger equation finds the energy eigenstates; each then acquires just its own time-dependent quantum phase. One eigenvalue problem therefore organizes both allowed energies and the evolution of arbitrary quantum superpositions, with a continuous spectrum included when required. This is the attractive bridge between a spatial wave problem and a clock: energy differences determine the rate at which relative quantum phases change. It makes atomic spectral lines, quantum tunnelling and quantum scattering calculable from a specified model.
For an explicit example without confinement, take a free particle on the whole line, , initially in a Gaussian wave packet with position standard deviation and mean momentum :Unlike a single plane wave, this wavefunction satisfies wavefunction normalization. A Fourier transform writes it as a quantum superposition of plane waves. Their dispersion relation is , so each Fourier component gains the factor . Completing the square in the resulting Gaussian integral giveswith the square root chosen continuously from . Its position probability density and standard deviation areThe centre moves with the group velocity and the wave packet spreads because different wavenumbers have different group velocities. This is unitary wave dispersion, without a random force or loss of probability. Independently, the initial momentum standard deviation is and the initial position-momentum covariance vanishes. Free evolution gives in the Heisenberg picture, henceThis independently checks the spreading law. The Gaussian integral of is one at every time; the decreasing peak is exactly offset by increasing width.
As hypothetical preparation parameters, choose a free electron with and . Using and givesThe rounded electron mass uses the 2022 adjustment.[ref]
CODATA Value: electron mass by National Institute of Standards and Technology. Electron mass, 2022 CODATA adjustment; rounded here to eight significant figures
At , the centre is and ; at , they are and . The mean kinetic energy staysIt includes both mean motion and the momentum spread. The mean speed is about and the momentum spread corresponds to , making the nonrelativistic model accurate for the appreciably occupied part of this ideal Gaussian distribution. Its mathematically unbounded tails are an idealization.The complex width also explains where the probability goes. Write , where is the dimensionless quantum phase. Differentiating the exact solution givesRelative to the moving centre, the probability current points outward on both sides for . This is a flux statement, not an additional assumption about individual particle trajectories. At and , the relative flow speeds are , about . The probability within a moving interval of half-width falls from about initially to at , exactly because of this outward probability current.
Curved quantum phase drives spreading probability current
. The same free Gaussian wave packet at . With , removing the carrier and a spatially constant quantum phase leaves . The right panel plots : negative to the left, positive to the right. Flux through the marked moving interval endpoints explains its decreasing probability. Source. Details.Historically, the 1926 Quantisierung als Eigenwertproblem (Erste Mitteilung) by Erwin Schrödinger began with the stationary hydrogen atom problem. It distinguishes discrete negative energies from a positive continuous spectrum; it is not yet the general evolution equation displayed above.[ref]
Quantisierung als Eigenwertproblem (Erste Mitteilung) by Erwin Schrödinger. Printed pp. 361–363, especially p. 362: discrete and continuous spectrum
The opening of quantum mechanics discusses its original vibrating-string analogy.In the 12 December 1933 lecture The fundamental idea of wave mechanics by Erwin Schrödinger, Erwin Schrödinger explains the move from independent rays to waves through diffraction, then applies that analogy to atomic physics. His closing pages explicitly acknowledge the difficulty of reconciling wave language with observed particle tracks. This retrospective physical argument motivates the model; it does not derive the modern Born rule from classical mechanics.[ref]
The fundamental idea of wave mechanics by Erwin Schrödinger. Nobel Lectures, Physics 1922–1941, printed pp. 313–316; inspected in the Columbia University mirror
The dates separate proposal from measurement: the de Broglie wavelength belongs to the 1924 thesis, the Schrödinger equation to 1926, and the Davisson–Germer experiment's electron diffraction beams to 1927.[ref]
The discovery of electron waves by Clinton J. Davisson. Printed pp. 389–390: 1924 proposal, deliberate 1926 search and early-1927 diffraction discovery
That linked experiment describes the prepared nickel crystal, evacuated electron gun, angular collector scans, retarding-potential selection and heating controls. Its measured collector electric current tests wave-dependent scattering probabilities; it neither measures a wavefunction directly nor establishes this equation uniquely. Second moment method Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The second moment method uses a random variable's expected value and second moment to establish that a counted or measured quantity is positive with substantial probability. It is useful when a positive average alone could be caused by extremely large values on very rare outcomes. Controlling the variance rules out too much of that concentration in rare outcomes.
For a nonnegative random variable with and finite second moment, the second-moment bound for positivity givesEquivalently, . The method also includes the simpler Chebyshev's inequality bound . Thus a sequence of such random variables with has with probability tending to one. These statements require no independence assumption. The variance argument and its use for random counts are developed in Zhao's lecture notes. [ref].
For an original toy count, let count successes in ten independent Bernoulli trials with success probability . The binomial distribution givesConsequently . The exact probability is . The first moment method and union bound only give the upper bound here. First and second moments therefore answer complementary existence questions.
The second moment method certifies a positive count, while statistical dependence can change the conclusion despite an unchanged mean
. Left: exact binomial distribution probabilities of at least one success and second-moment lower bounds for ten independent trials as the success probability varies. Right: the same ten trials with either occur independently or share one common Bernoulli outcome. Both counts have mean one, but the perfectly linked count has much larger variance and only probability of being positive. All data are original specified probability models. Details.For a sum of indicator random variables, the variance of a sum isIndependence makes the covariances vanish, but the formula itself also covers dependent counts. For the same ten success probabilities, let every trial share a single Bernoulli random variable : then , with mean one, variance nine, and . The second-moment lower bound is exactly . Ignoring the positive covariances would produce the false independent-count conclusion. Zhao's discussion of sums of indicators explains why overlapping counted structures require these pairwise terms. [ref]
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-226-probabilistic-methods-in-combinatorics-fall-2022/mit18_226_f22_lec06-07.pdf. Zhao, MIT 18.226, §4.1: indicator covariances and Bernoulli counts
. Siegert relation 2026-10-18
For one selected polarization of waves, write the detected complex fields as and their light intensities as , absorbing a common conversion constant. With stationary ensemble averages and nonzero , defineHere second-order optical coherence concerns distinct detector channels, with the corresponding normal ordering in the quantum formulation. Independent detection has . Subtracting the means gives the normalized covarianceThus multiplying raw photocurrents contains a large mean-product contribution; multiplying their fluctuations isolates the small excess. Independent detector shot noise does not supply a mean cross-channel excess, although it increases measurement uncertainty.
The displayed Siegert relation requires a zero-mean, jointly circular complex Gaussian random field, the usual chaotic thermal light model. Circular means invariance under a common arbitrary complex phase rotation; in particular . Apply the Gaussian moment pairing theorem to the real and imaginary parts:The remaining pairing vanishes by circularity. Division proves the Siegert relation. Gaussianity is an assumption about fourth moments, not a consequence of merely measuring first-order optical coherence; a coherent state or photon antibunching cannot be interpreted by this thermal formula.
For equal-intensity beams combined in a common optical mode with matched wave polarizations, interferometric visibility is . Consequently ideal thermal stellar intensity interferometry measures , while the full includes the independent-count reference one. Unpolarized thermal light with two independent equally populated wave polarizations has half this excess: adding their covariances doubles the numerator while multiplying total means quadruples the denominator. Finite detector response further suppresses the peak and must be calibrated.[ref]
Spatial intensity interferometry on three bright stars by William Guerin and others. Guerin and others, Spatial intensity interferometry on three bright stars, arXiv:1805.06653v2 (13 August 2018), §§2.1–2.3: normalized correlation, thermal contrast and temporal-response calibration
Sill of a semivariogram 2026-10-05
The sill is the large-distance level of a semivariogram when that limit exists. For covariance tending to zero, the sill is the total marginal variance; a nugget plus a structured component has total sill . A nonzero constant covariance component is invisible to the semivariogram.
Simple kriging Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-18
Simple kriging assumes a known mean function. If and are known, center the observations, predict the residual, and add back the target mean:For known zero mean, these reduce to and . Completing the covariance quadratic form giveswhich proves minimum error variance among predictors of the form . No sum-to-one constraint is needed: the known mean already supplies the offset. In the exponential example from ordinary kriging, imposing known zero mean gives weights , prediction , and error variance . The smaller error variance uses additional knowledge of the mean; it is not a free improvement when the mean is unknown.
If has a joint multivariate normal distribution, the displayed prediction is exactly , and is its conditional variance. A conditional expectation minimizes mean squared error among all square-integrable functions of the observations. Without a joint multivariate normal distribution, simple kriging remains the best predictor in the specified affine class, but the conditional expectation may be nonlinear and its conditional variance may depend on . Thus Gaussian process regression and the second-moment kriging construction agree under these assumptions, while having different starting points.[ref]
Simple random walk on the integer line Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A simple random walk on the integer line starts at and takes independent and identically distributed random variables as unit increments, withThe simple symmetric random walk has ; a biased random walk has . At or every step is deterministic, giving or respectively.
Count the rightward steps using indicator functions:Thus the endpoint is a shifted and rescaled random variable with a binomial distribution. For a worked example, at the endpoint means exactly three rightward steps and one leftward step. There are possible orders, so its probability is , equal to in the fair case. More generally the binomial coefficient counts the orders, giving the exact probability mass functionIn particular, the endpoint must have the same integer parity as : . For the support of a probability distribution is exactly . At only even integers in are reachable; at only odd integers are reachable. This restriction is easy to lose if one draws a smooth curve instead of discrete probability masses. The fair-walk counting argument is also presented in Grinstead and Snell, Introduction to Probability, section 12.1.
Exact binomial endpoint probabilities for fair walks of 20 and 80 steps and a biased walk of 80 steps; only even endpoints are possible.
Details. The endpoint identity and the binomial distribution give the expected value, variance, and standard deviationA short direct check gives and , hence . Then apply linearity of expectation and the variance of a sum of independent random variables.
The absolute width and the width relative to the number of steps answer different questions. In the fair case the standard deviation grows from to , while shrinks from to . At , the standard deviation is , or times the fair width, and . Centering and dividing by each walk's own standard deviation gives, for ,This rescaling equalizes the variances, not the entire probability distributions. The spacing between reachable endpoints is two, so its rescaled spacing is : approximately for the fair -step walk, for the fair -step walk, and for the biased -step walk.
The positions themselves are dependent. For , , where the second term is independent of . Their covariance is thereforeFor example, in the fair case allows or , whereas allows or . Nevertheless the position process is a Markov chain: given its current position, the next fresh increment has no dependence on its past. Its transition probabilities areThese transition probabilities are the same at every time and every integer position: shifting both and by the same integer leaves unchanged. Thus the Markov property and independent increments coexist with dependent positions.
For independent -variate multivariate normal observations with unknown mean and unrestricted positive-definite covariance matrix, the centered scatter has rank at most . If it is singular, choose the mean to be the sample mean and shrink the covariance on a null direction of the scatter. The quadratic likelihood term stays fixed while the determinant tends to zero, so the density likelihood tends to infinity. Thus a nonsingular covariance maximum likelihood estimate exists only when the centered scatter is positive definite; for a nonsingular Gaussian population this occurs almost surely exactly when .
SLE4 coupling with a Gaussian free field 2026-10-07
For a Gaussian free field with boundary heights and on the two sides of the starting point, its distinguished zero-height interface has chordal law. Conditional on an initial curve segment, the field is a zero-boundary field in the slit domain plus . Its mean bracket equals minus the variation of its conditional Green covariance. Subtracting the initial harmonic function gives the corresponding coupling to a zero-boundary field.
Spectral density transformation under a linear filter Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
Filtering multiplies the time-series spectral density by the squared modulus of the frequency response. Insert the spectral integral into the covariance double sum and interchange sums using absolute summability of the filter. This holds even when the input covariances are not absolutely summable, provided the spectral measure has a density.
Stationary process Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-14
A stationary process, in the strict sense, has the same joint probability distribution after every common shift of its time indices. More precisely, for every positive integer , every choice of times , and every integer shift ,Here equality means equality of probability distributions, not equality of realized observations. A sample path can fluctuate, stay positive for a while, or show accidental runs while its generating law remains stationary. Strong white noise is a basic example: shifting time preserves every joint law of its independent and identically distributed random variables.
The distinction between strict stationarity and weak stationarity is useful. The former preserves all finite joint laws; the latter preserves only the finite mean and covariance structure. Strict stationarity with finite second moments implies weak stationarity, but strict stationarity itself does not require finite variance. A Gaussian process with weak stationarity is also strictly stationary, because each of its finite-dimensional distributions, a joint normal distribution, is determined by its mean vector and covariance matrix.
Statistical dependence 2026-10-14
Two random variables are statistically dependent when their joint probability distribution differs from the product of their marginal probability distributions. Equivalently, some events determined by the two variables violate the product rule that defines independence. Nonzero covariance implies statistical dependence when the moments exist, but zero covariance does not in general imply independence.
Stellar pressure-energy tensor 2026-10-07
This tensor integrates the local pressure tensor, where is the velocity covariance. Half its trace is the random kinetic energy. It enters the tensor virial theorem with coefficient one.





