Poisson interarrival times Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-10-25
Let be the th arrival time, and set . In a Homogeneous Poisson process of rate , the gaps are independent and identically distributed random variables with an exponential distribution:
Here uses the rate convention. Under the scale convention , the same probability density function is ; a simulation function accepting a scale must receive . Conversely, summing independent rate- exponential random variables to form and counting those sums constructs a Homogeneous Poisson process.[ref]
The first-gap formula follows immediately from and the Poisson distribution. Independence of all successive gaps is the additional interval-theorem assertion; deterministic-time independent increments alone should not simply be substituted at random arrival times without justification. The memorylessness of the exponential distribution gives
At the toy rate of two per minute, the mean gap is half a minute, the median is minutes, and the probability of waiting longer than half a minute is . Here is the natural logarithm. Already having waited a minute without an arrival leaves this same conditional probability of waiting another half minute. The exponential distribution describes a model with no aging of the remaining wait; a scheduled arrival with a fixed gap has no such property.
Polarized beta-decay angular distribution Created 2026-10-18 Updated 2026-10-20
Consider a parent atomic nucleus at rest. Write its signed nuclear polarization along a fixed axis as , where is its maximal spin component. Let be the angle of the emitted electron momentum to that axis and let . Use for the parity operator, so it is not confused with .
For an axially symmetric leading-dipole model, retain a constant and the term linear in the polarization vector . Rotational symmetry makes the directional term proportional to . Define its dimensionless coefficient as . At fixed electron energy the relative intensity and normalized probability density function per solid angle are therefore
The factor is the conventional separation of the speed dependence; rotational symmetry alone does not determine that dependence or . The coefficient contains the decay dynamics. This leading model omits higher angular terms and detailed recoil and radiative effects. A partially oriented higher-spin ensemble can also have alignment that is not specified by its vector nuclear polarization alone.
The unit-integral condition follows without any model of a detector:
Thus has unit angular average, while the probability density function in the polar angle alone contains the Jacobian determinant factor:
In particular, itself is neither a normalized probability density function in nor a detector count. Positivity on gives .
Under full spatial reflection, but . The latter follows already for orbital angular momentum from ; spin has the same axial vector transformation. Hence is a pseudoscalar, and . If parity conservation held for this model, equal probabilities for the inverted process would force . Conversely, in an unpolarized sample proves nothing about .
Integrating over the two hemispheres gives a useful original check:
Choose , , and , so . Then the forward and backward hemisphere probabilities are and , and their counting asymmetry is . These are chosen teaching values, not measured values from the Wu experiment. At a single energy, the angular shape determines the product ; it cannot separately determine without a polarization calibration.
Figure 1.
Chosen angular probabilities and detector-efficiency cancellation
. Original model with . The angular probability is distinct from a detector count; opposite hemispheres average the cosine to . Unequal efficiencies and exposures distort individual detector ratios, while a reversal cross-ratio recovers the chosen hemispheric asymmetry. All counts are constructed. Details.
For independent lengths with the uniform distribution on , the probability of forming a nondegenerate polygon is . The necessary and sufficient condition is that every length is less than the sum of the others. The failure events are disjoint except on sets of probability zero. The sum of lengths has probability density function on , by repeated convolution of probability densities. A specified rod is too long with probability ; summing over the rods proves the formula. For three and four rods the probabilities are and .
A tied largest modulus can prevent even direction convergence. With and ,
The two directions form a cycle; neither is an eigenvector. There is no dominant-modulus spectral gap. A tied modulus is not a universal failure: an initial eigenvector remains on its line, and preserves every direction. Subspace iteration addresses a separated cluster by targeting a dominant invariant subspace instead of one eigenvector.
An orthogonal start can fail despite a strict spectral gap. For and , the dominant component is zero, so and every iterate equals . The Rayleigh quotient is exactly and the eigenpair residual is zero, although the dominant eigenvalue is . Exact arithmetic never creates a missing component.[ref]
The third panel contrasts these failures with , , for which
Here the horizontal eigenvector direction converges with a strict spectral gap, while the normalized vectors alternate signs. This is the successful direction convergence described under sign and phase in power iteration.
For a nonorthogonal eigenbasis, even the word “orthogonal” must be used carefully. The diagonalizable matrix has right eigenvectors , , and dominant left eigenvector . For , the dominant coefficient is . The starting vector is nonorthogonal to but stays at the smaller eigenvalue ; is orthogonal to but has and converges to the dominant direction. The left eigenvector test, not the right-eigenvector inner product, controls the outcome.
A random vector drawn from a continuous probability distribution with a probability density function on the full real or complex vector space has with probability one. This avoids the exact missing-component hyperplane, but does not guarantee a large component or fast convergence. Floating-point arithmetic may seed a missing component, yet a structurally preserved zero can remain zero, so accidental perturbations are not a convergence guarantee.
The cumulative distribution function of on is . Differentiating gives density on , which is the beta distribution probability density function with parameters . This also gives a simple instance of inverse transform sampling: to sample a density on , raise a uniform draw to the power .
Prior density Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
A prior density is the probability density function of a continuous prior distribution with respect to a specified reference measure. A proper prior density is nonnegative and integrates to one. Prior-density factors enter Bayesian posterior and RJ-MCMC acceptance formulas along with the likelihood and model prior probabilities.
Prior probability Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Prior probability describes uncertainty before the current observations are incorporated. For a statistical parameter , a prior distribution assigns probabilities to its possible ranges, conditional on background information and a statistical model. A continuous prior density specifies these probabilities through integration:
Here the probability density function is relative to Lebesgue measure ; a discrete prior distribution instead uses a probability mass function and sums. Density at one point is not the probability of that point. A nonnegative kernel with infinite total mass is an improper prior, whose use requires a separate check of posterior propriety.
For the coin model in Bayesian statistics, the beta distribution has prior density on . Its mean is and its variance is . It favors moderate heads probabilities without ruling out values near zero or one. For example,
The prior curve in Bayesian posterior makes this preference visible; moment matching for a beta prior explains how to choose a beta distribution from a desired mean and variance.
A prior distribution lets earlier evidence or elicited knowledge contribute to statistical inference when the current sample size is limited. It also exposes assumptions that can be checked by prior elicitation and a prior predictive check. Before the same eight heads and two tails, a uniform prior would give posterior mean , compared with under : the observations do not uniquely determine a Bayesian posterior. Even a uniform prior makes a choice of parameter coordinates; its child article explains why changing coordinates can destroy uniformity.
Probability density function Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-25
A probability density function represents probabilities as areas under a nonnegative measurable function. For a real random variable with an absolutely continuous probability distribution, it satisfies
for every Borel set . Its height is probability per unit of the outcome variable, not the probability of that exact outcome. Thus a probability density function may exceed one, while the probability of a singleton is zero. NIST describes the interval-probability interpretation through integration. [ref].
For the example on , , but and . The cumulative distribution function is within that interval, connecting density height to the local accumulation rate.
Changing the scale changes the density height. If , then on . At the corresponding value , its height is , while is unchanged. The factor compensates for the wider integration variable. This is a change of variables, not a change in the underlying probabilities.
A probability density function is determined only almost everywhere: changing its values on a Lebesgue measure zero set changes no probabilities. The Cantor distribution has no such representation, and a mixed probability distribution can have both a point mass and a density component, so differentiating its cumulative distribution function does not recover all its mass.
If has a joint probability density , the product has the displayed probability density function, interpreted almost everywhere. For fixed , substitute in the integral defining ; the absolute Jacobian determinant is . The Tonelli theorem then exchanges the nonnegative integrals. The line has two-dimensional Lebesgue measure zero, so its omission creates no probability mass. A density may be infinite at exceptional points without creating an atom.
Probability distribution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-18
A probability distribution describes how the values of a random variable are allocated among possible outcomes. More precisely, the law of a random variable assigns each measurable set the probability
It is a probability measure on the values of . The underlying experiment can be more elaborate than the output: different experiments may produce the same probability distribution. The law of a random variable retains the probabilities needed to answer questions about that output. [ref].
For a finite example, let take values with probability mass function , , . Its probabilities sum to one. The event has probability , whereas has probability : including one endpoint matters when it carries positive probability.
For a contrasting random variable , choose the probability density function on , and zero elsewhere. It integrates to one. Now , while every single outcome has probability zero. The probability density function can have height : probabilities come from integrals over outcome ranges.
Figure 1. . Left: takes values with probability masses , so its cumulative distribution function jumps at those values; open and filled markers show the excluded and included heights at a jump. Right: has probability density function on the interval and cumulative distribution function there. The shaded integral over and the corresponding cumulative distribution function increase both equal . Details.
The cumulative distribution function answers all threshold questions for a real random variable, regardless of whether there are jumps or a probability density function. A quantile function reverses the direction of the question: given a cumulative probability level, find a threshold. This connects descriptive summaries to inverse transform sampling, which constructs a chosen probability distribution from a uniform distribution.
Probability mass 2026-10-14
The probability mass at an outcome is the probability of its singleton, . It equals the jump of the cumulative distribution function. For a discrete probability distribution these masses form the probability mass function; a continuous probability distribution gives every individual outcome mass zero. Positive probability mass at a point is distinct from the height of a probability density function.
Probability mass function Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For a discrete probability distribution, the probability mass function of its random variable is
The sum ranges over its finite or countable set of possible values. An event's probability is the sum of the masses of the included values. For the example under probability distribution, . The cumulative distribution function sums masses below a threshold; its jump at a value equals that value's probability mass. This differs from a probability density function, whose height is not a point probability.
For independent random variables with the uniform distribution on , use the probability density of a product of random variables and integrate over . The displayed probability density function is zero off and has integral one. More generally, for independent and identically distributed factors with this uniform distribution, satisfies
The expectation of a product of independent random variables proves these identities directly.
Quadratic density derivative functional Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
The squared L2 norm of a probability density function derivative measures roughness and appears in optimal smoothing constants. For , its directional derivative along a smooth compactly supported perturbation is . When integration by parts is valid twice, this equals . Thus regular root- estimation requires substantially more regularity than merely estimating a smooth probability density function.
If is the quantile function of an absolutely continuous probability distribution with probability density function , then for almost every . Gaps in the support may give jumps in , so the identity concerns its ordinary almost-everywhere derivative. It follows by differentiating the inverse relation to the cumulative distribution function.
For an isotropic initial ensemble in Gaussian white-noise magnetic stretching, is the magnitude probability density function. The radial vector equation gives the displayed conservative Fokker-Planck equation. Its integral is conserved under zero endpoint probability flux. For an anisotropic initial vector distribution, use the angularly averaged magnitude density instead; isotropic noise alone does not make arbitrary initial data isotropic.
For uniform probability per volume in a sphere of radius , the radial probability density function is . Its root-mean-square radius is , whereas its scalar-radius standard deviation is . These are distinct from a fully specified quantum momentum uncertainty.
A randomized statistical test specifies a measurable rejection probability for each possible data value. It can be implemented by rejecting when an independent uniform random variable on satisfies . A deterministic test has only the values zero and one. Under a simple hypothesis , its rejection probability is , which is its test size for and its statistical power for .
The Neyman-Pearson lemma permits randomization on an equality set of the form to reach a prescribed test size. Continuous observations do not rule out an equality set of positive probability: if both hypotheses give the same probability density function, their likelihood ratio is identically one. This explains why a precise statement of the lemma includes boundary randomization even for continuous data.
Random variable Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A real-valued random variable is a measurable function from a probability space to the real numbers with their Borel sigma-algebra. More general targets give random elements. For every Borel set , measurability ensures that is an event, so the question "does the observed value lie in ?" has a defined probability.
The function is fixed; its input outcome is uncertain. This separates what we measure from how the uncertainty is modeled. A probability distribution is the resulting pushforward measure, . A cumulative distribution function, probability mass function, or probability density function describes that measure in an appropriate setting. The random variable and its probability distribution are different objects: the former also retains its relationship to other measurements on the same sample space.
For two independent uniform dice, let record their results and define and . The 36 ordered pairs are equally likely, but the resulting probability mass functions differ:
For the sum, count the diagonal of the outcome grid having total . For the maximum, subtract the pairs with both results below from the pairs with both results at most . These examples show how a deterministic function transforms a simple input probability distribution into a nonuniform output one.
Figure 1.
Different random variables on the same equally likely dice outcome space
. Details.
The corresponding expected values are and . The first follows immediately from linearity of expectation; the second follows from . Neither number must be an attainable result. An expected value describes an average under the probability measure, not a prediction that the next observation will equal it.
The distinction between a random variable and its probability distribution matters for dependence. and have the same discrete uniform distribution and are independent random variables. and a second copy of also have that same marginal probability distribution, but they always agree. Their joint probability distribution is concentrated on the diagonal; the marginals alone cannot say which relationship holds. This is why a model for several measurements must specify their joint law or an appropriate independence assumption.
Indicator random variables turn events into numbers: equals one on and zero elsewhere, and . This connects event counting with expected value and variance, and lets tools for random variables answer questions about probabilities. More complicated functions of observations can describe totals, waiting times, or estimation errors using the same framework.
Rayleigh distribution Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-18
The Rayleigh distribution is the probability distribution of the Euclidean norm of a two-dimensional random vector with independent zero-mean normal random variables of equal variance as components. If are independent, then
Here is the standard deviation of each component, not of the radius . At this gives the unit-scale probability density function .[ref]
This geometry turns two signed errors into one nonnegative distance. For example, suppose horizontal and vertical positioning errors are independent random variables. Their means both vanish, but the distance from the intended point is usually positive. The Rayleigh distribution with gives the probability of landing inside any centered disk. These are chosen model assumptions, rather than measurements of a particular instrument.
Figure 1.
The center maximizes planar density, while a positive radius maximizes radial density
. Original calculated model with . Left: joint probability density per unit area, with an annulus from to . Right: probability density function per unit radius; the shaded area is the probability of that same annulus. A single point and a single circle both have probability zero. Details.
An apparently paradoxical feature is that the most likely location per unit area is the origin, while the radial mode is . A narrow annulus farther out has more area. Near zero that growing circumference outweighs the falling planar density; farther out the exponential function wins. Distinguishing densities measured against different elements of area or length resolves the paradox.