Shot noise counting model Created 2026-10-18 Updated 2026-10-20
Let be the magnitude of each transferred electric charge, and let arrivals form a Homogeneous Poisson process of rate . Extend the stream over past and future times when considering stationary filtering. For electrons, , the elementary charge. Choose the positive electric current direction to follow these transfers, so is its mean magnitude. If counts arrivals in a gate of duration , thenThe gate's transferred electric charge is , and its average electric current is . Scaling the expected value and variance givesMore arrivals increase the absolute fluctuation but decrease its size relative to the mean. For an original count example with , the mean count and its variance are both , the standard deviation is , and the relative standard deviation is . The probability of no transfer is ; the probability of four is . A constant arrival rate does not prescribe four arrivals in every gate.
These are fluctuations of a time average, not the variance of an ideal instantaneous electric current. A model of point transfers has arbitrarily sharp impulses; it acquires a finite measured variance only after specifying a gate or linear filter. Actual collection pulses have finite duration and electrical circuits have finite response times.
Shot noise worked example Created 2026-10-18 Updated 2026-10-20
For an original model, set , , , , and the exponential low-pass filter's . Assume an ideal detector without charge multiplication and omit all additive noise for this calculation. ThenDoubling doubles the voltage variance and multiplies its standard deviation by . Halving also doubles the variance, provided the detector remains approximately white throughout the enlarged passband. Using in place of underestimates the variance by the factor . These are calculated predictions, not measured values or settings claimed for the laboratory below.
To read the dimensionless figure, set and , with frequency in cycles per unit . A gate of duration has count mean and variance . The continuously filtered instead hasThe count and the filtered electric current are different observables. The factor comes from the exponential weighting, not from non-Poisson arrivals. The dimensionless count illustration is a separate choice of rate; it does not assert that the example has only four electrons per .
Signal-to-noise ratio in photon counting 2026-10-05
For source counts and independent background counts with Poisson distributions, the ideal counting standard deviation is , so the signal-to-noise ratio is . Detector noise and uncertainty in the estimated background add further variance. A larger sky aperture raises , while better throughput raises ; both affect the faintness limit of a spectrograph.
Simple random walk Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A simple random walk on a locally finite graph chooses each vertex in the current vertex's graph neighbourhood with equal probability, assuming there is at least one available neighbour. On the integer line there are two choices, one unit left or right, so each has probability . This is the one-dimensional simple symmetric random walk. Terminology varies: a simple random walk on the integer line is also often allowed unequal step probabilities, with “symmetric” specifying the fair case.
For a simple symmetric random walk starting at , each increment has the Rademacher distribution, with expected value zero and variance one. Thus linearity of expectation and the variance of a sum of independent random variables giveFor example, after steps the expected value is zero, the variance is , and the standard deviation is . Doubling the typical distance scale takes four times as many steps. This square-root growth explains why a random walk can wander far even when there is no preferred direction.
Four fair and two biased unit-step random-walk paths, with their expected values and bands one standard deviation wide on either side.
Details. The colored curves are illustrative sample paths, not averages over all possible walks. The dashed curves show the expected values; the shaded bands show the expected value plus or minus one standard deviation at each time. These bands are a scale of spread, not confidence intervals, and give no guarantee that an entire sample path stays inside them.
Zero expected value does not make this a stationary process: its one-time probability distribution changes with , as the increasing variance already proves. It does have stationary increments and independent increments, because blocks of fresh steps have the same probability distribution at any starting time and disjoint blocks use independent random variables. This separation of position from increment is one reason the random walk is such a useful first example of a stochastic process.
Simple random walk on the integer line Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A simple random walk on the integer line starts at and takes independent and identically distributed random variables as unit increments, withThe simple symmetric random walk has ; a biased random walk has . At or every step is deterministic, giving or respectively.
Count the rightward steps using indicator functions:Thus the endpoint is a shifted and rescaled random variable with a binomial distribution. For a worked example, at the endpoint means exactly three rightward steps and one leftward step. There are possible orders, so its probability is , equal to in the fair case. More generally the binomial coefficient counts the orders, giving the exact probability mass functionIn particular, the endpoint must have the same integer parity as : . For the support of a probability distribution is exactly . At only even integers in are reachable; at only odd integers are reachable. This restriction is easy to lose if one draws a smooth curve instead of discrete probability masses. The fair-walk counting argument is also presented in Grinstead and Snell, Introduction to Probability, section 12.1.
Exact binomial endpoint probabilities for fair walks of 20 and 80 steps and a biased walk of 80 steps; only even endpoints are possible.
Details. The endpoint identity and the binomial distribution give the expected value, variance, and standard deviationA short direct check gives and , hence . Then apply linearity of expectation and the variance of a sum of independent random variables.
The absolute width and the width relative to the number of steps answer different questions. In the fair case the standard deviation grows from to , while shrinks from to . At , the standard deviation is , or times the fair width, and . Centering and dividing by each walk's own standard deviation gives, for ,This rescaling equalizes the variances, not the entire probability distributions. The spacing between reachable endpoints is two, so its rescaled spacing is : approximately for the fair -step walk, for the fair -step walk, and for the biased -step walk.
The positions themselves are dependent. For , , where the second term is independent of . Their covariance is thereforeFor example, in the fair case allows or , whereas allows or . Nevertheless the position process is a Markov chain: given its current position, the next fresh increment has no dependence on its past. Its transition probabilities areThese transition probabilities are the same at every time and every integer position: shifting both and by the same integer leaves unchanged. Thus the Markov property and independent increments coexist with dependent positions.
Simulated two-track invariant-mass example 2026-10-18
Take two stipulated oppositely charged daughters with equal rest mass and exactly opposite momenta of magnitude . Their total momentum is zero, soThis is a constructed event, not an identification of a historical particle. Boosting both four-momenta by along the first daughter's direction gives total energy and total momentum . Substitution recovers the same invariant mass, although the laboratory energy has increased.
The following independent simulation stipulates 700 signal combinations from a Cauchy distribution centered at with scale , truncated to , plus 2400 background combinations whose density decreases linearly across that interval. Each combination is converted to a back-to-back two-daughter event with . Independent isotropic directions are chosen, each Cartesian momentum component receives normal distribution noise with standard deviation , and invariant mass is reconstructed from the perturbed momenta. All inputs and counts are invented. No historical experimental points or fitted historical parameters appear.
A stipulated resonance component produces an excess above a smooth simulated invariant-mass background
. Original simulation of two-daughter events, with invented counts, a truncated Cauchy signal and a linearly falling background. The two panels share the same generated events. The right panel adds chosen momentum noise before reconstructing invariant mass; this is not an experimental discovery plot. Details. Smoothing bandwidth Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
A smoothing bandwidth determines the scale over which a regression kernel averages data, or a kernel for density estimation spreads each observation. It has the same units as the observations. In kernel density estimation, changing changes the visible detail while preserving the total integral one. For a Gaussian density kernel, each bump has standard deviation and its individual contribution has peak height .
If the smoothing bandwidth is too small relative to the spacings in a statistical sample, the kernel density estimator shows narrow spikes tied to individual observations: apparent peaks may be sampling accidents. If it is too large relative to features of the unknown probability density function, it blurs distinct groups together and spreads fitted probability far from the observations. An intermediate smoothing bandwidth can reveal broad structure, but visual smoothness alone cannot establish accuracy.
The same sample at three Gaussian bandwidths, and leakage below zero for a separate positive sample
. Details. The first three panels use exactly with smoothing bandwidths , and , respectively. Every curve has area one; the two groups in the observed statistical sample become less distinct as increases. No true probability density function is specified in this illustration, so the middle panel is illustrative, not a certified optimal fit. The fourth panel uses and to illustrate boundary bias of a kernel density estimator.
For a fixed nonnegative kernel for density estimation with finite squared integral, a probability density function that is bounded and continuous at an interior point with , and a deterministic sequence , the pointwise sampling variance obeysThus decreasing the smoothing bandwidth increases the leading sampling variance while reducing interior smoothing bias of an estimator: this is a bias-variance tradeoff. The conditions and express two goals, increasingly fine resolution and enough observations contributing locally. Practical methods such as plug-in bandwidth selection use the data to choose ; pointwise optimal kernel bandwidth depends on local features of the unknown probability density function. The smoothing bandwidth remains a tuning choice in nonparametric statistics, and knowing the support of a probability distribution can require more than a width adjustment near a boundary.
A calibration mark can be tested against an independent mass measurement. The Buffalo State-hosted Laboratory Experiment 1. Calibration of Volumetric Glassware uses a pipette, filler, conical flask, weighing bottle, balance, and thermometer. It specifies clean, freely draining glassware, bubble-free filling, an eye-level liquid meniscus reading, gravity drainage, and retaining the residual liquid allowed for by the pipette's calibration. Degassed water is delivered to a tared bottle; ten weighings and initial/final temperature readings give repeated delivered volumes using the water mass density. Their mean and standard deviation assess delivery and repeatability. The balance and thermometer must themselves be checked before claiming accuracy. The same handout describes weighing an empty volumetric flask and then weighing it filled to its mark.[ref]
Calibration of Volumetric Glassware (Buffalo State laboratory handout). Laboratory Experiment 1. Calibration of Volumetric Glassware, pp. 1–3: flask principle; Calibrating 25 mL pipette; Calibration Procedure, steps 1–8
The independent inference is . Agreement between repeats constrains scatter; agreement with the nominal delivery additionally needs trustworthy mass density, temperature, and balance readings. This experiment tests delivered or contained volume under its conditions. It does not prove that a subsequent solute transfer is complete or a prepared chemical solution is homogeneous.
The University of Wisconsin–Madison teaching module supplies the complementary preparation demonstration. Dissolved solute and vessel rinsings reach the volumetric flask; the contents reach room temperature before a dropper adjusts the eye-level liquid meniscus to the calibration mark. The module excludes a stirring bar during filling because its displaced volume is absent from the calibration, and requires mixing the neck liquid with the bulk chemical solution. Its self-check identifies incomplete dissolution and transfer as a cause of lower-than-intended molar concentration.[ref]
Volumetric Flask: Dissolving a Solute (Wisconsin chemistry teaching module). Volumetric Flask: Dissolving a Solute, transfer paragraph and incomplete-dissolution self-check
[ref]Volumetric Flask: Filling a Volumetric Flask (Wisconsin chemistry teaching module). Volumetric Flask: Filling a Volumetric Flask, temperature, displaced volume, and eye-level mark reading
[ref]Volumetric Flask: Mixing the Solution in a Volumetric Flask (Wisconsin chemistry teaching module). Volumetric Flask: Mixing the Solution in a Volumetric Flask, neck/bulk concentration difference
The observable endpoints are a liquid boundary at a mark and a delivered mass, not a direct count of solute particles. An overfilled flask has excessive final volume; removing some well-mixed chemical solution also removes solute, so it cannot recover the intended inventory merely by restoring the mark. Measurement uncertainty, contamination, incomplete transfer, and sampling before full mixing limit the inferred molar concentration. The apparatus demonstrates why the words “dilute to” refer to final chemical solution volume.
Spin uncertainty state dependence Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-10-20
For a qubit, use the dimensionless Pauli matrices as observables , . Their Pauli matrix multiplication law givesThese observables have eigenvalues ; the physical spin components are , where is the reduced Planck constant, so their standard deviations acquire a factor .
In the computational basis, prepare , an eigenstate of with eigenvalue . Direct multiplication givesBoth Pauli measurements return and with equal probabilities, and the Robertson uncertainty principle is saturated: .
Instead prepare . Now the expectation values are , , so , . The Pauli measurement of is certain, and both sides of the bound vanish. The commutator is still nonzero as an operator: noncommuting observables do not guarantee a positive lower bound independent of the quantum state. This example is useful for distinguishing the algebra of the observables from the expectation values in a particular preparation.
Pauli standard deviations, their product, and the Robertson bound in two preparations: the same noncommuting observables give bounds of one and zero
. Details. Standardized regression coefficient 2026-10-25
In an ordinary linear regression with nonzero response and predictor standard deviations, the coefficient after rescaling predictor and the response to standard-deviation units is the displayed quantity. An unstandardized coefficient table does not automatically report it. Standardization and reference coding must be explicit.
Standard normal distribution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The standard normal distribution is : the normal distribution with mean zero, variance one and standard deviation one. Its standard normal density integrates to one; its standard normal distribution function records the area accumulated from to a threshold. The distinction matters: , , and for a standard normal random variable .
For a toy measurement , leave the measurement unit unspecified. The standardization of a normal random variable converts into standard scores . Using the standard normal distribution function,The second area is half the first because the normal distribution is a symmetric probability distribution about its mean. The numerical heights differ: , yet the corresponding shaded areas are equal because in the change of variables.
Standard normal random variable Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
A standard normal random variable has the standard normal distribution, mean zero and variance one. If with , the standardization of a normal random variable is a standard normal random variable. Its values report displacement from the mean in units of the standard deviation, so the result is a dimensionless quantity.
Standard score 2026-10-14
A standard score expresses an outcome as a signed number of standard deviations from a mean , assuming . It is a dimensionless quantity. For a random variable with finite positive variance , has mean zero and variance one; it has a standard normal distribution when has a normal distribution, but centering and scaling alone do not make other probability distributions normal. [ref]
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2022/mit18_05_s22_class06-prep-b.pdf. MIT 18.05, Reading 6b, §5.1: standardization
. Static inhomogeneity refocusing 2026-10-18
Use the rotating frame and positive gyromagnetic ratio convention of free induction decay. Let be each component's fixed detuning, and normalize its magnetization by the equilibrium value. An instantaneous resonant pulse along rotates through about , preparing . A second pulse along rotates through about . These ideal pulses require a drive much stronger than the relevant detunings and negligible relaxation during either pulse. The corresponding rotation matrices, acting on column vectors, areHere is free Larmor precession in the rotating frame, before including transverse relaxation. Define a calibrated complex signal so the prepared component has . The pulse sends to its negative complex conjugate, hence sends to . Direct multiplication givesThe phase accumulated before the pulse is reflected; the angular velocity during subsequent free evolution keeps its sign. At every fixed detuning has zero residual phase. Equivalently, , so . This is not the identity on arbitrary three-dimensional magnetization: it returns the prepared component because . The two transverse pulse axes specified here also fix the receiver sign of the echo.
For an original ensemble example, let the static detunings have a Gaussian distribution with mean zero and standard deviation , independent of a common homogeneous . Averaging uses the characteristic function of that Gaussian distribution:Choose , and . Immediately before the refocusing pulse the normalized signal is only , yet . A one-pulse free induction decay at 80 ms would instead be about . These chosen numbers describe a calculation, not a measured trace. Increasing narrows the echo without changing in this ideal model. Because this Gaussian distribution produces a Gaussian factor rather than an exponential decay, its inhomogeneous decay is not characterized by a unique exponential .
The exact phase-refocusing time is . A slowly falling transverse relaxation envelope moves the maximum of this particular echo shape slightly earlier: differentiating after the pulse gives , or here. Measuring consistently at avoids confusing this small envelope effect with a failure of refocusing. A series of such measurements gives only when the assumed homogeneous exponential decay, pulse quality and negligible additional attenuation are appropriate.
Statistical fluctuation 2026-10-25
A statistical fluctuation is variation between repeated random outcomes or samples. Its scale can be quantified by variance or standard deviation. For independent signal counts with a Poisson mean proportional to deposited energy, the absolute fluctuation grows as the square root of energy and its relative size decreases as the inverse square root.
Stellar parallax 2026-10-13
Stellar parallax is the apparent change in a star's viewing direction caused by the observer's changing position. Nearby stars shift more against a distant reference background. In an ideal circular Earth orbit, the conventional annual stellar parallax uses a baseline of one astronomical unit, approximately the Earth-Sun distance. Two opposite observing positions, about six months apart, are separated by approximately two astronomical units. Their maximum angular separation is , so is half that excursion, not the full January-to-July shift. The observed excursion depends on the projected baseline and observing dates. [ref].
For the perpendicular baseline in the diagram, a right triangle giveswhere in the final expression is in radians. Combining the small-angle approximation with the parsec convention givesThus arcseconds implies parsecs, while the ideal six-month excursion is arcseconds. Geometry supplies this distance without assuming a luminosity or a particular stellar atmosphere.
In practical astrometry, many observations separate the annual stellar parallax signal from proper motion, the star's own changing sky position. The Gaia DR3 catalogue reports stellar parallax and its uncertainty in milliarcseconds: arcseconds. A catalogue angle is a fitted measurement with measurement error. [ref].
For a positive stellar parallax with small standard deviation , first-order propagation gives . Thus with gives parsecs with parsecs, assuming systematic offsets are negligible. This linear estimate requires ; a reciprocal is nonlinear and does not generally preserve symmetric uncertainty intervals.
For an equally populated ideal pair of angular momentum eigenstates, the magnetic moment component takes two values, , and the displacements at fixed velocity are . Compare a specified classical alternative: every chemical atom carries a permanent magnetic moment of fixed magnitude , with independently isotropic initial orientations and no dissipative alignment. If , the sphere's area element is , so has a uniform distribution on . With precession preserving this component in the ideal geometry, the displacement fills the interval continuously. A pair of bands therefore tests allowed components rather than merely proving that silver is magnetic. Other classical preparation assumptions would be different models and must be stated.
To include finite instrumental width, choose a normalized Gaussian distributionwith standard deviation , representing a combined field-off spatial width. At fixed velocity the model probability density functions areEach has unit integral and zero mean; the different shapes, rather than a different average displacement, distinguish them. The discrete model has variance , whereas the classical model has variance . Their common mean also explains why the raw average landing position is insufficient to identify the internal quantum state.
Now choose a uniform distribution of forward velocities from to , explicitly as an example rather than the oven's actual distribution. Average either conditional probability density function over that interval. The positive-channel displacement ranges from to , since slower chemical atoms spend longer accelerating and drifting. The two components broaden into bands even though their internal magnetic moment values remain discrete. The corresponding classical profile continues to populate the center. The displayed strip darkness is proportional to predicted deposited number density, with equal total arrivals; it is not a photograph or a calibrated optical response of a developed film.
Discrete magnetic components and continuous classical deflections
. Original model predictions with the chosen flight parameters, comparing one forward speed with a finite speed interval. Both alternatives include the same Gaussian spatial width. Synthetic deposition strips use a common density scale; none of the curves or strips is measured data. Details.Increasing the spatial width until it is comparable with can hide the two maxima. At fixed velocity, differentiating the two-state probability density function twice gives : the central minimum becomes a central maximum when . Conversely, a broad distribution of velocities need not create a new internal component: it spreads each existing component through the dependence. Further instrumental limits include collisions, aperture clipping of strongly deflected trajectories, asymmetric pole geometry, and nonlinear film development. Field-off widths and a mapped magnetic field gradient are needed to separate such effects. For a modern counting experiment, channel calibration and efficiency corrections belong to Stern-Gerlach expectation estimation; spatial separation alone does not supply those statistics.
Studentized normal sample mean 2026-10-18
Suppose , , are independent and identically distributed with normal distribution , where the mean and standard deviation are unknown. Define the sample mean and sample variance byUnder these assumptions,Substitution gives the exact ratioThe unknown cancels. The denominator estimates the standard error of the sample mean; its sampling variability is precisely why the Student's t-distribution has wider tails than the standard normal distribution.
The crucial independence has a geometric explanation. Apply an orthogonal transformation to the standardized observations , choosing its first coordinate along . That coordinate is ; the remaining coordinates are independent standard normal random variables whose squared sum is . Their joint probability density factorizes because the transformation preserves the squared length. This also explains the loss of one statistical degree of freedom when estimating the mean. Uncorrelatedness alone would not establish the required independence for arbitrary data.
The result is exact for every under the stated normal distribution model. A small sample size by itself does not justify it: a sample from an arbitrary probability distribution need not have the displayed chi-squared distribution or the necessary independence.
Student's t-distribution Created 2026-09-29 Updated 2026-10-20
The Student's t-distribution describes a standard normal random variable divided by an independent estimate of its scale. For any real , let have the standard normal distribution and let have the chi-squared distribution, with and independent. ThenThe parameter is called the number of statistical degrees of freedom. It need not be an integer: the chi-squared distribution is a gamma distribution with shape and rate . The independence assumption is essential; specifying only the two marginal distributions does not determine the probability distribution of their ratio.
Its probability density function on the whole real line iswhere is the gamma function. Every member is a symmetric distribution about zero. At it is the Standard Cauchy distribution; as it approaches the standard normal distribution. The essential shape change is the tail: at any fixed finite , decays like a constant times , much more slowly than the standard normal density's exponential decay. Thus it is a heavy-tailed distribution. [ref]
1.3.6.6.4. t Distribution. NIST and SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods; NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook, Section 1.3.6.6.4: density, Cauchy special case and normal limit; the ratio derivation here also permits noninteger degrees of freedom
The left panel shows the centers; the right panel uses a logarithmic scale to reveal the tails that a linear plot hides. All four curves have location zero and scale one. They do not have the same variance: the curve has no finite mean or variance, whereas has variance 3 and has variance .
More generally, the absolute moment for is finite exactly when , as follows by comparing the tail integrand with . ConsequentlyFor there is no finite mean; symmetry alone cannot supply one. For the mean exists but the variance is infinite. For even the centered definition of variance is unavailable because the mean does not exist.
A shifted and scaled version , , has probability density function . The scale is not its standard deviation: for ,For example, and scale give standard deviation , rather than 2. The distinction matters when using a Student's t-distribution to model data with occasional extreme values, as well as when interpreting a Student t confidence interval.
Student t random-effect model 2026-10-06
A Student t random-effect model assigns Student's t-distributions to exchangeable study effects, allowing heavier tails than a normal distribution hierarchy. An equivalent Gaussian scale mixture is , , with independent latent draws. For the variance is , so is a scale rather than a standard deviation. Small latent precisions weaken shrinkage for atypical studies while retaining partial pooling for the rest.











