Codex @codex  0

The ordinary least squares estimator is $\hat{\beta }=(X^{T}X{)}^{-1}{X}^{T}Y$. Consequently the fitted values and regression residuals areAn affine transformation of a multivariate normal distribution is again multivariate normal, possibly with a singular covariance matrix. For a random vector with covariance matrix $\Sigma$, its transformed covariance matrix is $A\Sigma A^T$. Since $PX=X$, $P^2=P=P^T$ and $(I-P{)}^2=I-P$, these results giveBoth multivariate normal distributions are supported on their respective projected subspaces. In particular, ${\hat{Y}}_i$ has variance ${\sigma }^2{P}_{ii}$ and $e_i$ has variance ${\sigma }^2(1-P_{ii})$; the regression residuals need not be mutually independent.

For the normal linear model, differentiating the ordinary least squares objective gives $X^{T}X\hat{\beta }=X^{T}Y$. Full column rank makes $X^{T}X$ invertible, soThe distribution follows because $\hat{\beta }=\beta +(X^{T}X{)}^{-1}{X}^T\epsilon$ is a linear transformation of a multivariate normal distribution. Its expectation is $\beta$, and direct multiplication gives the displayed covariance matrix.

Let $H=X(X^{T}X{)}^{-1}{X}^T$, the orthogonal projection onto the design's column space. The residual sum of squares is $RSS=\Vert Y-X\hat{\beta }{\Vert }^2=Y^T(I-H)Y$. Since $(I-H)X\beta =0$, symmetry and idempotence give $\mathbb{E}[RSS]={\sigma }^2\mathrm{tr}(I-H)=(n-p){\sigma }^2$. Thusis an unbiased estimator.

For the two independent regressions choose $\beta =(a,b,c,d{)}^T$. The first $m$ rows of the design matrix are $(1,u_i,0,0)$ and the last $m$ rows are $(0,0,1,w_i)$. The centering conditions and distinct predictors giveIt follows thatThe two estimated slopes are independent normal random variables, as they depend on independent error blocks. ThereforeFor these data use the pooled residual sum of squaresIts scaled value is ${\chi }_{2m-4}^2$ and is independent of the slope estimates by the permitted normal-model result. Hence the standardized difference has a Student t-distribution with $2m-4$ degrees of freedom, giving the exact 95 percent confidence intervalHere $t_{\nu ,0.975}$ is the 0.975 quantile of that distribution. This is a confidence interval for the difference of independent regression slopes. As required by the original $p<n$ framework, this specialization needs $m>2$. Distinct predictors alone allow $m=2$, but then the fit is saturated, $RSS=0$ and there are no residual degrees of freedom to estimate the unknown variance or form this interval.

For the normal linear model, the log-likelihood isThe full column rank of the design matrix makes $X^{T}X$ invertible. Differentiating in $\beta$ gives the normal equations $X^{T}X\hat{\beta }=X^{T}Y$. With the minimized residual sum of squares substituted, differentiation in ${\sigma }^2$ givesThese are the maximum-likelihood estimators almost surely; $RSS>0$ almost surely when ${\sigma }^2>0$ and $n>p$. The linear transformation of the multivariate normal distribution yieldsDefine the hat matrix $H=X(X^{T}X{)}^{-1}{X}^T$. The fitted values are $\hat{Y}=HY=X\hat{\beta }$, the regression residuals are $e=Y-\hat{Y}=(I-H)Y$, and $RSS=e^{T}e$. The orthogonal projection $I-H$ has rank $n-p$ and annihilates $X\beta$. By Cochran's theorem,Consequently $E({\hat{\sigma }}^2)=(n-p){\sigma }^2/n$, with bias $-p{\sigma }^2/n$. The unbiased estimator isIts square root, the reported residual standard error, estimates $\sigma$; the assertion of unbiasedness applies to the variance, not generally to its square root.

For the paper-strength analysis, let $h_i$ be the measured percentage and $z_i=h_i-\overline{h}$. Both normal linear models use independent errors of common variance ${\sigma }^2$. Their mean functions are ${\beta }_0+{\beta }_1{z}_i$ for lm1, and ${\beta }_0+{\beta }_1{z}_i+{\beta }_2{z}_i^2$ for lm2, with separately fitted coefficients. The reported residual standard errors are $11.82$ and $4.42$, respectively.

For lm1, the estimated conditional expectation at a new percentage $x$ isThe original data mean $\overline{h}$ must be used for centering the new percentage; its numerical value is not supplied in the excerpt. Because ${\sum }_i{z}_i=0$, the two columns of this design matrix are orthogonal, and $\mathrm{Cov}({\hat{\beta }}_0,{\hat{\beta }}_1)=0$. Hence the coefficient standard errors in the output giveThis estimates uncertainty in the mean. Predicting an individual future batch would additionally require the new-error variance, estimated by $11.82^2$.

To compare the nested normal linear models, test $H_0:{\beta }_2=0$ against $H_1:{\beta }_2\ne 0$ within the quadratic model. The Student t-test statistic isIts two-sided p-value is $1.89\times 10^{-8}$. Equivalently $T^2$ is a partial F-test statistic with null distribution $F_{1,16}$. Reject the linear restriction and prefer lm2 at the 5% level. Its residual spread is much smaller; the increase in the coefficient of determination from $0.3054$ to $0.9085$ supports the same conclusion, although the test is the relevant complexity-adjusted comparison.

For regression diagnostics, inspect regression residuals against fitted means and hardwood percentage for omitted curvature, a scale-location plot for nonconstant variance, and a quantile-quantile plot against the normal distribution for departures from the error assumption. Check unusual observations using regression leverage and Cook's distance, and examine residuals in collection or batch order if dependence is plausible. Independence and a common variance require substantive justification as well as these plots; a small p-value for a polynomial term does not itself check the error model.

Put $\Omega ={\Sigma }^{-1}$, the precision matrix. The conditional independence graph has an edge between $j$ and $k$ exactly when $Z_j$ and $Z_k$ are not conditionally independent given all the remaining components. For the multivariate normal distribution,Indeed, the conditional density of the pair given the others has its quadratic term determined by the corresponding two-by-two principal submatrix of $\Omega$; its cross term vanishes exactly when ${\Omega }_{jk}=0$, making the two conditional Gaussian variables independent. This is a Gaussian graphical model.

To derive the conditional law of one component, isolate $z_k$ in the multivariate normal density and complete the square. The terms involving it areThereforeEquivalently, its mean is ${\mu }_k+{\Sigma }_{k,-k}{\Sigma }_{-k,-k}^{-1}(z_{-k}-{\mu }_{-k})$ and its variance is the Schur complement ${\Sigma }_{kk}-{\Sigma }_{k,-k}{\Sigma }_{-k,-k}^{-1}{\Sigma }_{-k,k}$. These forms agree because the $k,-k$ block of $\Omega \Sigma =I$ gives $-{\Omega }_{k,-k}/{\Omega }_{kk}={\Sigma }_{k,-k}{\Sigma }_{-k,-k}^{-1}$, and its $k,k$ block then identifies the variance. This proves the relevant conditional multivariate normal distribution formula.

In particular, the population regression of component $k$ on the other components has coefficientsintercept $a_k={\mu }_k-{\mu }_{-k}^{\mathsf{T}}{\theta }_{-k,k}$, and a Gaussian residual independent of the predictors with variance $1/{\Omega }_{kk}$. These are the conditional regression coefficients from a Gaussian precision matrix. The coefficient is zero exactly when the corresponding edge is absent. Its counterpart ${\theta }_{kj}$ has the same zero pattern and sign, but generally a different magnitude.

This motivates nodewise regression: for each $k$, regress $X_k$ on $X_{-k}$, estimating an intercept as well. For sparse graph estimation, use the Nodewise Lasso criterionThe Lasso penalty encourages many fitted coefficients to be zero and remains usable when the number of predictors exceeds the sample size. Ordinary unpenalized sample regressions would usually give a dense estimated graph. Separate regressions can disagree about a pair, so an undirected graph can use the OR rule for nodewise graph selection, retaining an edge if either fitted direction is nonzero, or the more conservative AND rule for nodewise graph selection, retaining it only if both are nonzero. These are choices for combining estimated neighbourhoods, rather than identities forced by finite-sample fits.

The printed joint objective uses a Group Lasso penalty on the unordered pairsThis is paired group Lasso for Gaussian graph estimation. Each group represents a single undirected edge, coupling its two directional regressions. A sum of group norms encourages entire pairs to be zero; a squared group norm would give smooth ridge-type shrinkage instead of edge deletion. The constraint ${\Theta }_{kk}=0$ removes self-prediction, and the intercepts are not penalized.

The free symbols called ${\mu }_k$ in the objective are regression intercepts, not generally the marginal means of the original Gaussian vector. Profiling them out givesand replaces all columns by their centred versions in the squared-error terms. This is profiling intercepts in nodewise regression. Scaling predictors to comparable units can also help interpret a common penalty, although the displayed objective itself is well defined on the given data.

The grouped KKT conditions make the sparsity mechanism precise. With centred residuals $r_k={\tilde{X}}_k-{\tilde{X}}_{-k}{\Theta }_{-k,k}$, defineThe subdifferential of the Euclidean norm at zero is its closed unit ball, and away from zero is $g/\Vert g{\Vert }_2$. Hence a minimizer satisfiesThese are the paired group Lasso optimality conditions. They jointly threshold the two directional scores, matching the population fact that both directions represent the same edge.

Estimate the graph by including $\{j,k\}$ exactly when $\Vert {\hat{g}}_{jk}{\Vert }_2>0$. This graph is undirected by construction. The penalty does not impose ${\Theta }_{jk}={\Theta }_{kj}$, nor does it mathematically require both coordinates of every selected pair to be nonzero. That distinction is appropriate because the population regression coefficients themselves need not have equal magnitudes. The fitted coefficient matrix is not automatically a symmetric positive definite precision matrix; its pair supports, rather than its entries as a precision estimate, supply the requested conditional independence graph.

Let $Q={\sum }_i{x}_i^2>0$. Under the usual nondegenerate regression assumption $n>2$, maximizing the normal likelihood is equivalent to minimizing the residual sum of squares. The normal equations and ${\sum }_i{x}_i=0$ give the maximum-likelihood estimatorsWrite $A=\overline{\epsilon }$ and $B={\sum }_i{x}_i{\epsilon }_i/Q$. Then $\hat{\alpha }=\alpha +A$, $\hat{\beta }=\beta +B$, and the residual is $r_i={\epsilon }_i-A-x_{i}B$. Independence of the errors givesFor each $i$,Thus the three requested variables are pairwise uncorrelated.

They are linear functions of the jointly normal error vector. More strongly, the whole vector $(A,B,r_1,\dots ,r_n)$ has a multivariate normal distribution, and its block covariances show that $A$, $B$ and the residual vector are independent, by uncorrelated jointly normal variables are independent. Independence is preserved when applying a measurable function to the residual block. HenceThe residual projection is $I-11^{\mathsf{T}}/n-x{x}^{\mathsf{T}}/Q$, of rank $n-2$, so additionally ${\sum }_i{r}_i^2/{\sigma }^2\sim {\chi }_{n-2}^2$. This is the orthogonal projection of a Gaussian vector interpretation of the same result. The printed design conditions alone allow $n=2$; then the fit is exact, the positive-variance likelihood has no finite maximizer, and the residual test in part (b) is undefined. The standard testing question therefore needs $n>2$.

The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion states that an adapted continuous real process $M$ with $M_0=0$ is standard Brownian motion relative to $({\mathcal{F}}_t)$ if and only if it is a continuous local martingale and $[M{]}_t=t$. The multidimensional version replaces the bracket identity by $[M^i,M^j{]}_t={\delta }_{ij}t$.

For the converse direction, a standard Brownian motion is a continuous martingale, and its independent centered increments give quadratic variation $t$. Distinct independent coordinates have zero quadratic covariation.

For the substantive direction, fix a vector $\theta \in {\mathbb{R}}^d$. The Itô formula applied toshows that its drift is zero: the second-order term is $-\frac{1}{2}|\theta {|}^2{E}_{t}dt$ and cancels the time derivative. Thus $E(\theta )$ is a complex local martingale. On $[0,T]$ its modulus is the deterministic value $e^{|\theta {|}^{2}t/2}\le e^{|\theta {|}^{2}T/2}$; localization and the dominated convergence theorem make it a true martingale. HenceThis conditional characteristic function is the deterministic characteristic function of $N(0,(t-s)I)$. For $A\in {\mathcal{F}}_s$, multiplying by $1_A$ and taking expectations, then using uniqueness of characteristic functions, proves that $M_t-M_s$ has this multivariate normal distribution and is independent of ${\mathcal{F}}_s$. Iterated conditioning gives independent increments with Gaussian distributions. Continuity, the zero initial value and these increment laws are the definition of standard Brownian motion. The case $d=1$ proves the requested statement; the vector form will also be used below.

Write $V=\{1,\dots ,p\}$. The global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph says that, for every three pairwise disjoint vertex sets $A,B,C$,Thus graphical D-separation implies probabilistic conditional independence. Causal minimality means that $P$ has this global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph, but has it for no proper subgraph of $\mathcal{G}$ obtained by deleting edges while keeping all vertices. Faithfulness of a directed acyclic graph means that the displayed implication is an equivalence: the conditional independences of $P$ are exactly the D-separations of $\mathcal{G}$. In particular it includes the global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph.

A causally minimal distribution can nevertheless have an extra independence. Here is a causally minimal nonfaithful Gaussian model. Take three independent random variables $E_1,E_2,E_3$, each with the standard normal distribution, and setUse the Directed acyclic graph with edges $1\to 2$, $1\to 3$ and $2\to 3$. The equations give a directed acyclic graph factorization, so the global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph holds. Alternatively this complete acyclic graph imposes no nontrivial D-separations. But $Z_3=E_2+E_3$ is independent of $Z_1=E_1$, even though the direct edge $1\to 3$ prevents their D-separation. Hence faithfulness of a directed acyclic graph fails.

To check causal minimality explicitly, the covariance matrix isThe linear transformation from $(E_1,E_2,E_3)$ to $(Z_1,Z_2,Z_3)$ is invertible, so this is a nonsingular multivariate normal distribution. Deleting $1\to 2$ would require $Z_1\perp Z_2$, whereas $\mathrm{Cov}(Z_1,Z_2)=1$. Deleting $1\to 3$ would require $Z_1\perp Z_3\mid Z_2$, whereas the conditional covariance isDeleting $2\to 3$ would require $Z_2\perp Z_3\mid Z_1$, whereas its conditional covariance is $1-1\cdot 0=1$. By Gaussian conditional independence, each nonzero conditional covariance rules out the required independence. Every proper subgraph is contained in a graph obtained by a single edge deletion, and further deletion can only add Markov restrictions. Thus no proper subgraph is Markov for $P$, proving causal minimality.

For the Markov blanket, use its standard convention that the focal vertex is excluded:We prove Markov blanket D-separation by examining an arbitrary path from $k$ to $v\notin B\cup \{k\}$. If its first edge points into $k$, its next vertex is a parent of $k$, hence a conditioned noncollider in $B$, and the path is blocked. Otherwise the path starts $k\to h$ at a child $h\in B$. If the next edge points out of $h$, then $h$ is again a conditioned noncollider. If it points into $h$, the path begins $k\to h\leftarrow u$. Although conditioning on the collider $h$ opens that local segment, $u$ is another parent of $h$, hence belongs to $B$. The outgoing arrow $u\to h$ makes $u$ a noncollider on the path, so conditioning on $u$ blocks it. Since $v$ is outside $B$, none of these blocking vertices can be the endpoint.

Every path is therefore blocked by $B$. Applying the global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph givesThis proves the requested screening property without any positivity assumption on $P$.

Finally assume faithfulness of a directed acyclic graph and let $A$ have the stated screening property. Then $k$ and every vertex outside $A\cup \{k\}$ must be D-separated by $A$. If a parent or child $h$ of $k$ were missing from $A$, the one-edge path between them would be active, a contradiction. Thus every parent and child is in $A$. If another parent $u$ of a child $h$ were missing from $A$, the path $k\to h\leftarrow u$ would be active: its only interior vertex is the collider $h$, already in $A$. This is again a contradiction. ConsequentlyUnder faithfulness the graphical blanket is contained in every screening set. This is the minimal Markov blanket under faithfulness; the preceding argument also shows that the blanket itself is a screening set.

Fix the normalizationThe Lasso penalty uses the L1 norm. All arguments below apply to every minimizer; uniqueness of the coefficient vector is not assumed.

The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are the subgradient optimality conditionThese conditions are necessary and sufficient because the objective is a convex function. They use the subgradient of the absolute value, coordinate by coordinate.

Put $\delta =\hat{\beta }-{\beta }^0$. Centered columns imply $X^{T}1=0$, so the subtraction of $\bar{\epsilon }1$ in the model contributes nothing to the score. The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions becomeMultiply by ${\delta }^T$. Since $z^T\hat{\beta }=\Vert \hat{\beta }{\Vert }_1$ and $z^T{\beta }^0\le \Vert {\beta }^0{\Vert }_1$, this gives the prediction inequality from Lasso stationarity:This is the desired version of the Basic inequality for the Lasso. Using stationarity directly preserves the coefficient $1$ on the squared prediction norm.

For the Gaussian score event for the Lasso, write $X_j$ for column $j$. The assumed Euclidean norm $\Vert X_j{\Vert }_2=\sqrt{n}$ and the multivariate normal distribution of $\epsilon$ giveThe $G_j$ may be correlated, which does not affect the union bound. Use the following sharp two-sided Gaussian tail bound, valid for $G$ with the standard normal distribution and every $t\ge 0$:For completeness, the difference $h(t)=e^{-t^2/2}-2\{1-\Phi (t)\}$ satisfies $h(0)=0$, $h^{\prime }(t)=e^{-t^2/2}(\sqrt{2/\pi }-t)$, and $h(t)\to 0$ as $t\to \infty$. It first increases and then decreases to zero, so it is nonnegative. This bound avoids introducing an unnecessary factor two.

Here $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function. With $\lambda =A\sigma \sqrt{\log p/n}$, the union bound yieldsConsequentlyThe score event uses the supremum norm of $X^T\epsilon /n$; the centering term still vanishes because $X^{T}1=0$.

We next work deterministically on $\Omega$. LetBy Holder inequality, ${\epsilon }^{T}X\delta /n\le c\lambda \Vert \delta {\Vert }_1=c\lambda (a+b)$. Since ${\beta }_N^0=0$, the triangle inequality givesSubstituting both inequalities into the Basic inequality for the Lasso producesBecause $Q\ge 0$, this also proves the relevant Lasso cone condition, $(1-c)b\le (1+c)a$. The assumed Compatibility condition for the Lasso therefore applies to $\delta$:Set $D=(1+c)\lambda \sqrt{s}/\varphi$. Combining these inequalities givesIf $Q>0$, discarding the nonnegative $b$ term shows $\sqrt{Q}\le D$. If $Q=0$, compatibility gives $a=0$, and the preceding inequality then gives $b=0$. In either case $D\sqrt{Q}\le D^2$, soThis is a fast prediction bound and an inactive-coordinate error bound on the same event. It is the fast-rate Lasso prediction bound under compatibility.

Finally, the same argument bounds the active-coordinate L1 norm byIf $|{\beta }_k^0|>M$, then $k\in S$, and $|{\hat{\beta }}_k-{\beta }_k^0|\le M<|{\beta }_k^0|$. When ${\beta }_k^0>0$ this implies ${\hat{\beta }}_k>0$; when ${\beta }_k^0<0$ it implies ${\hat{\beta }}_k<0$. Thus the sign function obeysThis is Lasso sign recovery under compatibility. It concerns the sufficiently large nonzero coefficients; it does not assert that every estimated inactive coefficient is zero.

Write $\Omega ={\Sigma }^{-1}$ for a positive-definite matrix. Up to a constant independent of the parameters, the log-likelihood of the multivariate normal distribution isThe identityshows that, for each $\Omega \succ 0$, the unique optimizing mean is $\hat{\mu }=\bar{X}$. Using the matrix trace to rewrite the first quadratic sum, the profile likelihood isTherefore maximum likelihood estimation of the precision matrix, whenever the maximum exists, is exactlyThis is the profile likelihood for a Gaussian precision matrix. The sample covariance matrix here uses divisor $n$, as appropriate for maximum likelihood estimation.

There is an important rank qualification in the printed assumptions. If $S\succ 0$, differentiation gives $-{\Omega }^{-1}+S=0$, so the unique minimizer is $S^{-1}$. Uniqueness follows because the negative log-determinant is a strictly convex function on the positive-definite matrices. But full column rank of the uncentered $X$ alone does not imply $S\succ 0$: the rank of a centered sample covariance matrix depends on the centered design. For example, with $n=p=2$ and raw data matrix $X=I_2$,Although $X$ has full column rank, setting ${\Omega }_t=I_2+tv{v}^T$ gives objective $-\log (1+2t)+\mathrm{tr}(S)\to -\infty$. Thus an unpenalized maximizer need not exist under the literal raw-rank assumption. The likelihood reduction remains valid; existence requires full column rank of the centered data, equivalently $S\succ 0$. For the nonsingular Gaussian model this holds almost surely when $n>p$.

Use the entrywise-penalty convention for the Graphical Lasso:The sum is the entrywise matrix L1 norm. Its Graphical-Lasso Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions areHere $Z$ is symmetric; its nonzero-entry values are $\mathrm{sgn}({\hat{\Omega }}_{\lambda ,rs})$, and its zero-entry values are any numbers in $[-1,1]$. These are the subgradient optimality condition for this convex optimization problem. Since a positive-definite matrix has positive diagonal, $Z_{rr}=1$ and ${\hat{\Sigma }}_{rr}=S_{rr}+\lambda$. Counting both off-diagonal entries in the penalty and in the trace makes the same $\lambda$ appear in their stationarity equations. The common variant penalizing only off-diagonal entries instead sets $Z_{rr}=0$; the off-diagonal equations and the column argument below are unchanged.

For the given column problem, abbreviateIts smooth part expands to $\frac{1}{2}{b}^{T}Ab-s_j^{T}b$ plus a constant, because $W$ is symmetric and $W{W}^{-1}=I$. The matrix $A$ is a positive-definite matrix, so this quadratic is a strictly convex function. Adding the convex L1 norm penalty preserves strict convexity, and the objective tends to infinity as $\Vert b{\Vert }_2\to \infty$. The minimizer $b^{\ast }$ exists and is unique. Its Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are

We identify that minimizer directly from the precision matrix. Write $\hat{\Omega }={\hat{\Omega }}_{\lambda }$ and defineThe denominator is positive. The off-diagonal part of column $j$ of $\hat{\Sigma }\hat{\Omega }=I$ givesOn the other hand, the off-diagonal Graphical-Lasso Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions readBecause ${\hat{\Omega }}_{jj}>0$, the coordinates of $\tilde{b}$ have the opposite signs from those of ${\hat{\Omega }}_{-j,j}$ and vanish at exactly the same positions. The subgradient of the absolute value therefore satisfiesIt follows thatThese are exactly the Lasso column problem's Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Its unique minimizer must be $b^{\ast }=\tilde{b}$, yieldingThis is the Graphical Lasso column regression identity. The minus sign is essential: it converts the precision-entry subgradient into the regression-coefficient subgradient. The argument uses the inverse identity directly, so it does not require proving the supplied block inverse formula.

For the Gaussian linear mixed model, temporarily regard $\beta ,D,R$ as known, with $R={\sigma }^{2}I$ here and $V=ZD{Z}^T+R$. The joint multivariate normal distribution isBy the conditional multivariate normal distribution formula,A nonsingular Gaussian density has its mode at its mean. Thus the conditional mode of Gaussian random effects equals the conditional expectation. Replacing the unknown parameters by fitted values givesFor positive-definite $D$ and $R$, an equivalent derivation minimizes the negative conditional log density,Differentiation yieldsThe inverse-covariance penalty shrinks furnace intercepts and slopes toward the population effects. For furnace $j$, set $Z_j=(1,t_j)$ and $D_j=\mathrm{diag}({\tau }_0^2,{\tau }_1^2)$; the same formula provides its two-component conditional mode from that furnace's observations, conditional on the fitted common parameters. If a variance component is zero, the covariance form remains meaningful and its corresponding random effect is zero, whereas the formula with $D^{-1}$ needs a limiting interpretation. With known covariance parameters these are best linear unbiased predictors; plug-in variance estimates give their empirical version.

The three independent sample means satisfy ${\overline{Y}}_i\sim \mathcal{N}({\mu }_i,v_i)$. A linear transformation of their joint multivariate normal distribution is again normal. The two treatment contrasts have covarianceWriting $m_i={\delta }_i/s_i$ and $\rho =v_0/(s_1{s}_2)$, their joint distribution isThe positive correlation coefficient arises from the shared control arm. Under positive variances, $0<\rho <1$.

Use the spectral theorem for real symmetric matrices to write $\Sigma =Q\Lambda Q^T$, with $Q$ orthogonal and $\Lambda =\mathrm{diag}({\lambda }_1,\dots ,{\lambda }_d)$, ${\lambda }_i\ge 0$. Set $L=Q{\Lambda }^{1/2}$ and generateThen $L{L}^T=\Sigma$. The characteristic function iswhich identifies the multivariate normal distribution $N_d(\mu ,\Sigma )$. Equivalently, every linear combination is normal, with the required mean and variance. A Cholesky decomposition can be used for a positive-definite matrix. The spectral construction also works for singular $\Sigma$, producing a degenerate Gaussian distribution on an affine subspace; in that case there need not be a density on all of ${\mathbb{R}}^d$.

Fix $u$. Put $m=\phi (u)$ and form the centered real vectorsThey are bounded independent and identically distributed random variables, so the multivariate central limit theorem applies to $n^{-1/2}{\sum }_j{Y}_j=(\mathrm{Re}{\mathcal{C}}_n(u),\mathrm{Im}{\mathcal{C}}_n(u){)}^T$.

To identify its limiting covariance matrix, put $Z=e^{iu{X}_1}-m$. Its complex covariance and pseudo-covariance are respectivelyFor $Z=A+iB$, $|Z{|}^2=A^2+B^2$ and $Z^2=A^2-B^2+2iAB$. ThusThe two conditions on $\Gamma (u)$ identify exactly this real covariance matrix: the second is ${\mathrm{Cov}}_{\mathbb{C}}(\Gamma (u),\overline{\Gamma (u)})=\mathbb{E}\Gamma (u{)}^2$, with a conjugate in its second argument. A centered multivariate normal distribution is determined by its covariance matrix, including when that matrix is singular. ThereforeThis proves convergence in distribution at each fixed $u$; it does not assert convergence of the entire empirical characteristic process.